“With opinions of Trump and the political environment pretty well locked in, Republican hopes of limiting big losses in the House and holding onto a slim Senate majority hinge on the possibilities that: 1) polling is failing to capture discouraged GOP voters who, while not happy with Trump, will show up on Election Day and support Republican candidates; 2) Republican campaigns are effectively identifying and targeting their low-propensity voters in ways that are not being reflected in the survey data; and 3) undecided voters, like the “doubly disenchanted” my colleague David Wasserman identified, break decidedly in Republicans favor.” cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

The voters who’ll decide just how big the blue wave this fall, writes @Redistrict, are the “doubly disenchanted” - frustrated with Trump’s handling of economy, but still not sold on Dems. Here are the key things to know about this critical group of voters. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

Can the deluge of cash help R’s w/ GOTV in red SEN states? As the late @posglen would say: “can’t win on turnout if you’re losing on message.” The top issue in this election is cost of living and R’s don’t have an effective message for it. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.

New poll of 37 most competitive CDs (ie, races that will decide control of Congress) for @CookPolitical by NewRiver Strategies & GS Strategy Group. These CDs, on average, voted for Trump by 5pts - now prefer a generic Dem by 2 pts. (7 point swing to Dems since ‘24). Shows obvious pathway to majority for D’s, as well as a ceiling (universe remains the 25 or so R-held seats that voted Trump by 10 pts or less). But, to me, the most interesting finding was that these voters see this election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Among indies, just 20% prefer a candidate to be a check on Trump - 59% want a candidate who will change system overall. This also suggests that these voters would want a Dem-led Congress that focuses more on an agenda that tackles corruption + institutional rot than one that focuses solely on Trump & his overreach. cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…

In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14. cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…