Forecasting every state in the ‘26 midterms, county-by-county.
Hyattsville, MD
Joined March 2026
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Countylineforecast.com now active!
Browse all senate battleground states, county-by-county. I’ll be updating the site every few days, adding cool new features as we go!
Countylineforecast.com website now active! Just the preview page for now, but might add a few sneak peaks before 5/1 😉
County Line Forecast retweeted
From Matt Towery “As we look at early voting it is becoming clear that a certain portion of the GOP base is not planning on voting. The GOP message in terms of paid ads has failed to explain why action on Iran was needed and what the consequences of a nuclear Iran would be. It is the “elephant in the room” that must be addressed big time as the closing message. We have too many polls in too many states with Democrats leading and the GOP is running out of time.”
R’s have really held strong today in IPEV. The margin % has only shrunk 0.3 points in 3 hours and their raw vote lead has nearly doubled to over 30k.
This may end up being Rs strongest day yet.
Today’s FL IPEV is another fairly strong day for Republicans, but appears it’s gonna fall short of yesterday’s high water mark for Reps. The high water mark yesterday R+18.
Again, decent for Reps, but not what they need to close the gap.
Full transparency, because I try to be fair and balanced, (unlike our MAGA friends): Thru noon, Rs are crushing the IPEV for Monday. This is what you want to see if you want Reps to claw back towards their normal margins before Eday.
As others have noted, the rest of the day favors Dems, so we’ll see what the final margin is for Reps, but they’re showing up today.
County Line Forecast retweeted
New - Governor poll - Nevada
🔵 Aaron Ford 49％ (+6)
🔴 Joe Lombardo (Inc) 45％ (-1)
Last poll: Lombardo +3 (7 point 🔵 swing)
Hart Research Associates 🔵 - LV - 10/25
County Line Forecast retweeted
N+ Univision/YouGov poll | 10/13-10/21 RV
US Senate Texas 2026
🟦James Talarico 50%
🟥Ken Paxton 45%
Link to poll: univision.com/noticias/polit…
Also, you’ll clearly notice that this time period (about a week before the election) is when the Dem/GOP gap bottomed in 2024. Dems then slowly trimmed the lead heading into Election Day.
Not sure if this year follows that pattern, but it should be interesting to watch.
Something’s going on in Louisiana this cycle and it’s getting very little attention. Black turnout is through the roof. This race is going to be closer than people think.
Of note, I think herding has been a massive problem in general this election. I’ve seen more “Talarico +2” polls than should be considered statistically normal. Pollsters are not coming to independent results.
It’s not just a problem in Texas either, it’s everywhere. I ran a simulation of how likely the polling results across states would be if pollsters were coming to independent conclusions. The results speak for themselves
County Line Forecast retweeted
The GOP shouldn't be counting on a poll miss to win the Senate (though it's possible!).
Dems have actually been slightly more likely to outperform the polls in close Senate races since 1998.
Same in 2018 (Trump's 1st midterm) & Dems outperformed in all 2022 close races.
County Line Forecast retweeted
#ElectionTwitter 🗳️
Kansas Top 5 Counties — Early In-Person Voting
⚠️ DOES NOT INCLUDE TODAY’S VOTES (10/26)
Johnson: 77,912
🔵 38,606 🔴 28,560 🟡 10,401
D+10,046
Sedgwick: 12,930
🔵 5,512 🔴 5,342 🟡 1,979
D+170
Shawnee: 9,219
🔵 4,408 🔴 3,460 🟡 1,313
D+948
County Line Forecast retweeted
Ohio Early vote, 8 days out: D+5.19, a 15.4-pt shift toward Dems vs. 2024 (R+10.2 at this point).
The past week has been much steadier. The D margin slipped 1.6 pts (D+6.8 → D+5.19), bottomed at D+4.8 on Oct. 23 and has ticked up since. The prior week it fell 6.6.
County Line Forecast: Monday Update 🗳️
Senate control
🔵 Classic: Dems 70.8% → 74.4%
Avg. Seats (with Osborn): Dem 52 Rep 48
🔵 Plus: Dems 70.2% → 70.4%
Avg. Seats (with Osborn): Dem 51 Rep 49
Generic ballot
🔵 D+9 (50.8–41.8)
Key polls
🟢 NE: Osborn +7 (Concord, D-sponsored)
🔴 ME: Collins +0.5 (Trafalgar)
🔵 MI: El-Sayed +2.5 (MSU/YouGov)
🔵 NC: Cooper +9 (Quantus)
⚪ TX: Paxton 45, Talarico 45 (Rasmussen)
Biggest moves
🔴 NE (Classic): 26.1 → 31.5
🔴 MT (Plus): 10.7 → 14.4
🔵 OH (Plus): 60.2 → 56.6
🔴 MS (Plus): 2.7 → 6.1
🔵 NH (Classic): 90.4 → 93.1
🔵 TX (Plus): 55.7 → 53.5
🔴 Nebraska: the models split. A Democratic-sponsored poll has Osborn +7. Classic discounts it to about +5 and Osborn jumps to 31.5%. Plus also discounts the pollster's own lean and reads it closer to +3, so Osborn sits at 20.5%. That 11-point gap is the biggest disagreement on the map.
🔵 Ohio: Brown slipped in both models, more in Plus (56.6%) than Classic (72.8%). Plus now follows the recent trend in each race's polling, and Ohio's last few polls have been softer for Brown than the ones before.
🔵 Texas: Rasmussen has it tied. Classic still gives Talarico 58%; Plus is down to 53.5%. Both say coin flip with a thumb on the blue side.
Under the hood this weekend: Classic now discounts polls paid for by a party or campaign, the way Plus always has, and counts Rasmussen and Trafalgar as Republican-leaning firms. That's most of Classic's 3.6-point jump, since those firms poll the close states a lot. Plus now applies a pollster's house effect in proportion to how much it has polled, so one poll can't brand a firm, and its averages follow the trend. The two models disagree more than they have all cycle, and that's the point of running two.
8 days out. Check your state 👇
countylineforecast.com
County Line Forecast: Friday Update 🗳️
Senate control
🔵 Classic: Dems 68.5% → 70.8%
🔵 Plus: Dems 67.8% → 70.2%
Generic ballot
🔵 D+9.1 (50.5–41.4)
Key polls
🔴 ME: Collins 49, Jackson 49 (Fox News)
🔴 NE: Ricketts +3 (NPA, R-sponsored)
🔵 NH: Pappas +7 (St. Anselm)
🔵 OH: Brown +4 (Verasight)
🔵 TX: Talarico +2 (Emerson)
Biggest moves
🔴 MT (Classic): 1.2 → 11.0
🔵 OH (Classic): 70.6 → 75.2
🔴 NE (Classic): 29.0 → 26.1
🔵 TX (Classic): 57.9 → 56.5
🔴 ME (Classic): 44.5 → 43.8
🔵 Ohio: Brown's jump wasn't a new poll, it was subtraction. SoCal Strategies went dark after questions about its data and ties to Wedgewood, and Silver Bulletin's F-rated pollsters now get zero weight in both models. Take out the junk and Brown's lead holds up.
🔴 Nebraska: a Republican-sponsored poll has Ricketts +3. Classic takes it at face value and Osborn slips to 26%. Plus discounts the sponsor and barely moves (22.7%).
🔴 Maine: Fox has it 49–49. Collins is still a slight favorite in both models, and this is the race where a two-point polling miss decides everything.
Montana: we were too sure. Our models had Bodnar at 1%, with uncertainty bands built on two-candidate races — and Montana isn't one. Bankhead (D) is holding ~18% that could move late, so we added a term for it. Bodnar is now at 11%. Still Likely R, but a real race.
11 days out. Check your state 👇
countylineforecast.com
#Election2026 #SenateForecast
This only ended up being R’s 3rd best day in EV, which is pretty surprising considering where they were this morning.
Dems have held their own in early voting and Rs may struggle to get close to their final ‘22 EV IP margin:
‘22 margin: R+21.8 ( R+ 504,892 votes)
‘26 margin: R+7.6 (R+125,093 votes)
Rs need to make up a lot of ground, and are running out of time to do it.
Why tf do we continue to get NC polling, but haven’t had high-quality polling of Kansas in over 10 days? It’s getting pretty ridiculous.
As expected the EV IP vote has shifted bluer as the day has gone on. This may not even end up being Reps’ best day of the cycle.
We shall see 👀
Full transparency, because I try to be fair and balanced, (unlike our MAGA friends): Thru noon, Rs are crushing the IPEV for Monday. This is what you want to see if you want Reps to claw back towards their normal margins before Eday.
As others have noted, the rest of the day favors Dems, so we’ll see what the final margin is for Reps, but they’re showing up today.
Full transparency, because I try to be fair and balanced, (unlike our MAGA friends): Thru noon, Rs are crushing the IPEV for Monday. This is what you want to see if you want Reps to claw back towards their normal margins before Eday.
As others have noted, the rest of the day favors Dems, so we’ll see what the final margin is for Reps, but they’re showing up today.
