Forecasting every state in the ‘26 midterms, county-by-county.
Hyattsville, MD
Joined March 2026
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County Line Forecast retweeted
From Matt Towery “As we look at early voting it is becoming clear that a certain portion of the GOP base is not planning on voting. The GOP message in terms of paid ads has failed to explain why action on Iran was needed and what the consequences of a nuclear Iran would be. It is the “elephant in the room” that must be addressed big time as the closing message. We have too many polls in too many states with Democrats leading and the GOP is running out of time.”
County Line Forecast retweeted
New - Governor poll - Nevada
🔵 Aaron Ford 49％ (+6)
🔴 Joe Lombardo (Inc) 45％ (-1)
Last poll: Lombardo +3 (7 point 🔵 swing)
Hart Research Associates 🔵 - LV - 10/25
County Line Forecast retweeted
N+ Univision/YouGov poll | 10/13-10/21 RV
US Senate Texas 2026
🟦James Talarico 50%
🟥Ken Paxton 45%
Link to poll: univision.com/noticias/polit…
County Line Forecast retweeted
The GOP shouldn't be counting on a poll miss to win the Senate (though it's possible!).
Dems have actually been slightly more likely to outperform the polls in close Senate races since 1998.
Same in 2018 (Trump's 1st midterm) & Dems outperformed in all 2022 close races.
County Line Forecast retweeted
#ElectionTwitter 🗳️
Kansas Top 5 Counties — Early In-Person Voting
⚠️ DOES NOT INCLUDE TODAY’S VOTES (10/26)
Johnson: 77,912
🔵 38,606 🔴 28,560 🟡 10,401
D+10,046
Sedgwick: 12,930
🔵 5,512 🔴 5,342 🟡 1,979
D+170
Shawnee: 9,219
🔵 4,408 🔴 3,460 🟡 1,313
D+948
County Line Forecast retweeted
Ohio Early vote, 8 days out: D+5.19, a 15.4-pt shift toward Dems vs. 2024 (R+10.2 at this point).
The past week has been much steadier. The D margin slipped 1.6 pts (D+6.8 → D+5.19), bottomed at D+4.8 on Oct. 23 and has ticked up since. The prior week it fell 6.6.
County Line Forecast retweeted
Mail ballots percentages each day in Clark County, NV as of right now.
County Line Forecast retweeted
Maybe. I've been hearing "Republicans will DOMINATE in early voting tomorrow...the day after...the day after that" for some time.
The real issue, though, is that with the aggressive GOP redistricting, you have more marginal seats now that could use every GOP vote they can.
County Line Forecast retweeted
Nebraska U.S. Senate General Poll
⬜ Osborn (I) 48%
🟥 Ricketts (R) 41%
Nebraska Governor General Poll
🟦 Walz (D) 43%
🟥 Pillen (R) 40%
Concord Public Opinion Partners — Education Reform Now Advocacy (D)
(Oct 15–18, 500 LV)
County Line Forecast retweeted
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
County Line Forecast retweeted
MICHIGAN Early Vote Day 1 🗳️
🔵 Kamala counties are running at 66% of their 2024 Day 1 EV
🔴 Trump counties are running at 45% of their 2024 Day 1 EV
County Line Forecast retweeted
New - Generic ballot poll
🔵 Democratic 53%
🔴 Republican 45%
YouGov (B) - LV - 10/23
County Line Forecast retweeted
Preparing for a horde of @elonmusk bots
County Line Forecast retweeted
#ElectionTwitter
Johnson County, KS IPEV overperformance each day vs 2024:
Day 1: R+1 to D+35 (D+36)
Day 2: R+10 to D+16 (D+26)
Day 3: R+14 to D+10 (D+24)
Day 4: R+17 to D+3 (D+20)
Day 5: R+18 to D+1 (D+19)
Day 6: R+16 to D+3 (D+19)
Day 7: R+3 to D+16 (D+19)
County Line Forecast retweeted
Nevada
In-person early voting today is R+0.3 so far
Dems are up nearly 15,000 votes statewide
County Line Forecast retweeted
Early in-person, Clark County, NV (SoS)
10/24/2026 - 3:15 pm PT
Dem 4,122 (40.7%)
Rep 3,546 (35.0%)
Other 2,450 (24.2%)
Total 10,118
Dem +5.7% (2024 Rep +11.4) (2022 Rep +16.8)
Likely Dems' best day yet. D+17 vs 2024, D+23 vs 2022 so far.
County Line Forecast retweeted
Some of the most striking early voting data this cycle is coming from Louisiana, where Democrats are seeing particularly strong turnout among young and low-propensity voters, who are disproportionately driving the shift toward Democrats.
County Line Forecast retweeted
Early in-person, Clark County, NV (SoS)
10/24/2026 - 11:30 am PT
Dem 1,227 (38.3%)
Rep 1,165 (36.4%)
Other 809 (25.3%)
Total 3,201
Dem +1.9% (2024 Rep +11.4) (2022 Rep +16.8)
Dems continue to gain as we get into the afternoon. D+13 vs 2024, D+19 vs 2022 so far.
