Seed/private investments in 200+ web3 projects, @EtherRock, #cryptoPunk $BTC (from $40) and #SpaceX early investor, Pre-IPO checks in AI and military stocks
SG, AU, UK, HK
Joined August 2010
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BitProp retweeted
A young SpaceX employee asked Elon what happens if they fail to reach Mars in his lifetime. The room was full of engineers and the question landed heavier than anyone expected.
It was a simple question but it cut to the core of everything SpaceX exists for. The entire company, every late night, every exploded prototype, every engineer who missed their kid's birthday for a launch window, it all points at Mars. What if it doesn't happen in time?
Elon paused.
He said that the goal was never for him personally to walk on Mars. The goal was to build the infrastructure that makes it inevitable. That even if he dies before the first crew lands, the system he built would carry the mission forward without him.
He said the rockets, the factories, the team, the culture, all of it is designed to outlast any single person. Including him. Especially him.
Then he said something that reportedly moved people in the room.
He said that if he thought success depended on him being alive, he would have already failed. The whole point is building something that doesn't need its founder to keep going.
He compared it to a cathedral. The architects of medieval cathedrals knew they would die before the building was finished. They designed it anyway. They poured their life into something they would never see completed because the completion wasn't the point. The commitment was.
SpaceX is his cathedral. He may never set foot on Mars. But the road between here and there will exist because he refused to accept that nobody was building it.
The most ambitious man alive has already made peace with the possibility that his greatest achievement might happen after he's gone. That's not failure. That's faith in something bigger than yourself.
BitProp retweeted
SpaceX a clôturé son premier jour de cotation à 2 100 milliards de dollars, +19%. Tout le monde regarde le chiffre. Personne ne regarde ce qu'il price réellement.
Laissez-moi vous dire ce que le marché vient d'acheter, et pourquoi je pense que cette boîte vaudra 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans.
D'abord, le symbole. Cette IPO est un référendum. D'un côté, 20 ans de discours sur la décroissance, la sobriété, la redistribution, la fin de l'histoire gérée par des comités. De l'autre, un homme qui a dit "je vais rendre l'humanité multiplanétaire", que tout le monde a traité de clown, et qui vient de créer la plus grosse entreprise cotée de l'histoire en partant d'un entrepôt à El Segundo. Le marché a voté. Le wokisme avait des départements RH, SpaceX avait des fusées. Les fusées ont gagné.
Ensuite, la mécanique économique, parce que c'est là que tout le monde se trompe. Les analystes valorisent SpaceX comme une entreprise de lancement plus Starlink. C'est comme valoriser Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Starship ne réduit pas le coût du kilo en orbite de 20%, il le divise par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le coût du calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Le coût de l'orbite divisé par 100 va donner une économie spatiale complète.
Faisons la liste de ce qui devient rentable quand le kilo en orbite coûte le prix d'un billet d'avion. Les data centers orbitaux, avec énergie solaire continue et refroidissement gratuit, au moment exact où l'IA fait exploser la demande énergétique terrestre. La fabrication en microgravité de semi-conducteurs, de fibres optiques, d'organes imprimés impossibles à produire sous gravité. Le tourisme orbital de masse, puis les hôtels lunaires, qui passeront du fantasme au business plan exactement comme la croisière de luxe au 20ème siècle. Le transport point à point terrestre, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes. L'industrie minière des astéroïdes, dont un seul corps de classe M contient plus de métaux que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique. Et Mars en ligne de mire, pas comme destination touristique, mais comme le plus grand projet d'infrastructure jamais entrepris, avec tout ce que ça implique de demande en énergie, matériaux, robotique, IA.
SpaceX ne participera pas à ces marchés. SpaceX possède le péage d'entrée de tous ces marchés. C'est AWS, mais pour la civilisation. Apple vaut 3 500 milliards en vendant des rectangles de verre sur une seule planète. Le premier monopole d'accès à une frontière infinie à 30 ou 50 trillions dans 5 ans, ce n'est pas de l'exubérance, c'est une simple règle de trois sur l'expansion du marché adressable.
Et maintenant, la partie que je préfère. Ce futur n'a pas besoin de bureaucrates. Il n'y a pas de comité consultatif en orbite. Pas de commission Théodule sur Mars. Chaque dollar de cette nouvelle économie sera créé par des ingénieurs, des techniciens, des soudeurs, des pilotes, des entrepreneurs. Les diplômés en gestion de la norme vont devoir apprendre un métier utile, et franchement, c'est une excellente nouvelle pour eux aussi : construire est infiniment plus fun que contrôler.
Parce que c'est ça, le vrai signal d'aujourd'hui. Pendant 50 ans on nous a vendu un futur rétréci : moins d'énergie, moins d'enfants, moins d'ambition, gérer le déclin proprement. Et là, d'un coup, le plus gros actif financier du monde est un pari sur l'abondance, l'expansion et l'aventure. Le pessimisme vient de passer en position vendeuse sur lui-même.
Le futur sera méga fun. Il y aura des hôtels avec vue sur la Terre, des honeymoons en orbite, des gamins qui diront "papa, c'était comment avant les fusées réutilisables" comme on dit "c'était comment avant Internet". Et quelque part dans les années 2030, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes, et ce jour-là plus personne ne se souviendra du nom d'un seul de ses détracteurs.
Achetez de l'optimisme. C'est encore sous-valorisé.
BitProp retweeted
EtherRock 71 purchased for $132,000 (63.3 ETH)
33 mins ago (Feb-14-2026 03:33:11 PM UTC)
Txn: etherscan.io/tx/0xaa09b22cee…
BitProp retweeted
ELON IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN CAPITAL MEETS COMPETENCE
Elon isn’t wealthy because he hoards.
He’s wealthy because he converts money into outcomes faster than almost anyone alive.
When he left PayPal with roughly $180 million, that wasn’t an exit.
It was seed capital.
What followed were reusable rockets, mass-market EVs, a global satellite internet network, and launch cadences no one thought were possible.
Ask how he’d start over if everything disappeared and his answer isn’t cute or theoretical.
He’d raise money again and multiply it again, because that’s literally what he’s done for two decades.
Investors don’t fund Elon out of charity.
They fund him because resources put in his hands tend to come back larger, faster, and attached to real infrastructure.
SpaceX didn’t just make rockets reusable.
It normalized it.
Starlink didn’t just add internet.
It reached places governments and telecoms ignored for decades.
Now he’s talking about data centers in space, which sounds absurd until you remember landing rockets once did too.
Some people manage systems.
Elon builds new ones.
That’s why the question isn’t whether he has too much capital.
It’s whether the world can afford to slow down the rare people who know how to turn ambition into reality.
Source: @PBDsPodcast @elonmusk
BitProp retweeted
EtherRock 38 purchased for 90 ETH ($265,533)
1 hr ago (Dec-16-2025 09:52:59 PM UTC)
Txn: etherscan.io/tx/0xcf5596e356…
BitProp retweeted
Elon Musk is the first person in human history to touch $600B in net worth, yet he lives nothing like people expect.
He doesn’t own mega-mansions, doesn’t party on yachts with models and bottles, and isn’t burning cash on materialistic things that most billionaires spend $ on. In fact, he sold off all of his homes and lives in a small, modest house near SpaceX in Texas, close to the work, worth ~$50K.
Almost everything he owns is in companies pushing humanity forward - Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, xAI, Neuralink, 𝕏, Boring Company. He uses his $ to push the mission of his companies forward.
And I bet he’ll continue to use his wealth to make Earth safer, accelerate sustainable energy, and ensure humans become a multi-planetary species on Mars.
This is FAR from comfort.
That’s what makes him different. Most billionaires optimize for lifestyle, while Elon optimizes for outcomes that matter to civilization.
Time will tell, but I believe people won’t remember him for what he owned, but rather people will remember him for what he sacrificed and built.
Congrats Elon.
BitProp retweeted
Bitcoin let me teach you what you do not know.
1,995 addresses hold 36% of all BTC.
19,467 addresses hold 61% of all BTC.
150,999 addresses hold 83% of all BTC.
What do you think this means?
BitProp retweeted
SpaceX is about to become the most important company on Earth. And maybe off it.
$30-40B raise. $1.5T valuation. Largest IPO in history. Those are the headlines.
Here’s what they’re actually telling you.
Musk just told investors that Starlink will generate $22-24B in 2026 revenue, up from $8B in 2024. That’s tripling in two years. At 100x forward revenue, the market is pricing Starlink like it’s the next AWS.
The comparison isn’t crazy.
AWS did $90B last year with 31% of cloud market share. Starlink has 8M subscribers and approximately zero real competition. Amazon Kuiper has 153 satellites. Starlink has 7,000+. OneWeb did $216M in 2024. Starlink did $8B. By the time Kuiper launches commercial service in late 2026, the race is already over.
But Starlink is the boring part of this story.
Musk said last month that “cost effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground” within 4-5 years. SpaceX plans to use IPO proceeds to build space-based AI data centers. Starship can deliver 100GW per year to high Earth orbit. For context, total US electricity consumption is 490GW. Average AI data center demand is projected to hit 123GW by 2035, up from 4GW today.
The math: Earth cannot build power plants fast enough. Gas turbine backlog is 7 years. Nuclear takes a decade. Meanwhile Musk is talking about solar-powered AI satellites with radiative cooling in orbit. Google’s Sundar Pichai called it a “moonshot” and said Project Suncatcher could launch prototype servers by 2027. His exact words: “only possible because of SpaceX’s massive advances in launch technology.”
ARK just published an open-source valuation model. Monte Carlo simulation, 17 variables, 1 million iterations. Base case: $2.5T by 2030. Bull case: $3.1T. That’s a 38% CAGR from December’s $350B round.
The model assumes:
- Full Starlink constellation (42,000 satellites) by 2035
- $300B annual revenue at maturity (15% of global communications spend)
- Mars development funded by Starlink cash flows
And here’s where it gets weird.
Musk announced 5 uncrewed Starship launches to Mars in 2026. He gives it 50-50 odds. If they land intact, crewed missions begin 2029-2031. By 2033, he’s targeting 500 launches per window. The goal: 1 million people on Mars, self-sustaining city in 20 years.
The timeline:
- 2026: 5 test flights (10t payload each)
- 2028-29: 20 launches, first humans
- 2030-31: 100 launches
- 2033: 500 launches
ARK’s model explicitly excludes Mars revenue because “projecting cash flows from extraterrestrial settlements can be speculative.” But they note Mars infrastructure could eventually enable asteroid mining.
Jensen Huang called space data centers “a dream.” Fair. Radiation shielding for Blackwell GPUs doesn’t exist. Deploying tens of thousands of square meters of thermal radiators is science fiction today.
But SpaceX has a history of turning science fiction into quarterly revenue.
At $1.5T, you’re paying for:
1. Starlink monopoly on LEO internet (priced in)
2. Space-based AI compute infrastructure (speculative)
3. Mars colonization (not priced, possibly unquantifiable)
Here’s the bear and bull cases.
Bear case
100x multiples assume flawless execution on subscriber growth, zero price compression from competition, and regulatory goodwill in 100+ countries. Musk’s timelines slip by years. Starship has had multiple test failures.
Bull case
SpaceX is the only company that can simultaneously solve the AI power crisis, provide global internet, and make humanity multiplanetary. The TAM is literally civilization.
I don’t know if SpaceX is worth $1.5T or $3T or $500B. Neither does anyone else. The honest answer is that traditional valuation frameworks break when you’re pricing optionality on space-based computing and interplanetary colonization.
But I know this… if you’re building a 20-year portfolio and you can only own one company, the argument for SpaceX has never been stronger.
BitProp retweeted
We’re literally in the midst of the most disruptive technological revolution in history with AI, space travel, autonomous driving, and much more.🚀
And there’s still people here that are fascinated about jpegs.
Do you mfers hate money and like being depressed 98% of the time?🤷
BitProp retweeted
America & China:
- Robots building robots
- Relentless expansion of cheap energy
- Industrial-scale AI production
UK & Europe:
- Policing hurty words
- Net Zero
- Regulating toaster wattage
We are governed by losers.
BitProp retweeted
Some thoughts
I am extremely bearish on crypto. I still stand on the tweet below, you should look to sell into any bounce you get.
Currently there are no tailwinds left like etfs in 2023, trump presidency in 2024 and Dats in 2025. I strongly feel we will see a lot of blood going forward, unless there is new information that changes the land scape.
Some predictions - Expect btc to trade around 69-70k (below saylor's avg - max pain scenario) , SOL - 88-95, ETH 1800, HYPE - 23-25.
BitProp retweeted
Robotics is NOT a data problem. Atleast not the way we think.
For a long time, my world model was: whoever deploys robots at scale first wins. Get the units out there, collect the trajectories, train on the data, repeat. The fleet learning flywheel.
I'm starting to think this is wrong.
Consider Tesla. They've been collecting driving data for nearly a decade. Millions of cars, countless edge cases, every country, every weather condition. If any company has the data flywheel spinning, it's them. And FSD is genuinely impressive now and works insanely good. And yet. We're still 2-3 years minimum from actual robotaxis without remote operators or telepresence. Maybe a decade from global deployment. This is with ten years of data collection on what is, in some sense, a constrained problem. Roads have lanes, cars have physics, the state space is bounded.
Now take a similar analogy for general-purpose robotics. Homes are weird. Objects are weird. Tasks are open-ended. If the driving problem took this long with this much data, why would we expect manipulation to be faster?
The standard counterargument goes something like: "But we have foundation models now! VLMs! World models! All that semantic and physics understanding is already baked in, so the timeline to deploy general robots should be much smaller than what it took Tesla."
I used to believe this. I don't anymore.
Here's what I think is actually happening: current world models understand physics the way someone who's only ever watched videos understands physics. They know things fall. They don't know how fast or where exactly. They have vibes about spatial relationships but no ground truth. This matters more than people realize.
You see the same thing in software, actually. No matter how good Claude Code gets, it still sometimes gets stuck in a loop; fixing B and destroying A, then putting A back and destroying B. It can write impressive code, but it doesn't have a closed-loop understanding of what it's actually doing to the system. It's the same problem. Vibes about code, no ground truth about state.
I've been messing around with some weirdly specific measurement problems lately. Figuring out how much a fish weighs from a photo, estimating cattle mass from iPhone LiDAR, that kind of thing. Very niche, very applied. But working on this stuff and my robotics hobby has updated me on something: getting actual ground truth about the physical world is much harder than I'd assumed, and much more valuable than the foundation model people seem to think.
There's something deeply wrong with training a "world model" on pixels alone and expecting it to understand geometry. It's like training a language model on text and expecting it to understand truth. You get something that's eerily convincing and subtly broken.
The current robotics paradigm is: go to 1000 homes, teleoperate 1000 robots, collect the data, train on it, pray for emergence. This gives the vibes of "we're losing money on every sale but we'll make it up in volume." If your learning algorithm requires 10,000 robots doing teleoperated data collection before it starts being useful, you don't have a learning algorithm, you have a very expensive imitation pipeline.
I do want to believe we have everything we need to build general-purpose robots. Deep learning and transformers have surprised us in shocking ways. The kind of emergence that led to ChatGPT was incredible. But at the same time, you still cannot deploy a model as a co-worker. And I think it's the same with robotics.
The more I learn about this tech and actually try to deploy it, the more my intuition says there's something missing. Once we figure that out, things will fall into place much more orderly than the current approach of going to 1000 homes and deploying 1000 robots to collect data and then expecting emergent skills.
It shouldn't be that way. We should be able to figure out how to provide value from the beginning.
I don't know exactly what that missing piece looks like. But I'm pretty sure it's not "more demonstrations."
VLAs and robots have real use cases today. It's the big G that I'm uncertain about. And as always, would love to be wrong.
