I post my conscious thoughts w/ the world, live to the fullest, keep things simple, truthful & filter the noise. Long-term investor in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI/X.

Mars
Joined April 2018
The new Tesla Roadster reveal was the GREATEST product unveil of all time. I was there on October 15, in a field at SpaceX in McGregor, outside Waco. Elon said he wanted real people in the crowd so nobody could claim the demo was AI. I was one of those people, with my phone out, jaws wide open, watching a Tesla do things I would have had a hard time believing if I hadn’t seen them myself. To everyone who kept their reservation and waited through all these years, this night was for you. I know seeing the car do all of this doesn’t put it in your garage, but I hope you got to enjoy that moment as much as I did. Huge shoutout to Elon and everyone at Tesla and SpaceX who worked on this car and made that night happen. The people designing it, building it, testing it and getting it ready for those demos deserve so much credit. Thank you for letting us be there to see it. I’m grateful I got to witness this. And I cannot wait for the day I finally get behind the wheel of my own.
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"I remain convinced that Optimus will be the biggest product on earth… there is no one that is even close to Tesla with respect to a general purpose humanoid robot." - Elon Musk
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Things are coming together at Tesla, and I feel really good about where this company is headed. Today’s Q3 call gave me more confidence that the years of hard work the Tesla team has put in are beginning to pay off. “I think we’re now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth.” - Elon Musk This is what stands out to me the most from $TSLA Q3 2026. FINANCIALS • Revenue was $28.0B, flat YoY • Adjusted EPS was $0.48 vs $0.45 expected • Gross margin improved to 19.6% from 16.8% in Q2 • Auto margin excluding credits rose to 18.1% from 16.3% in Q2, even as credit revenue fell to $113M from $417M a year ago • Free cash flow swung from -$1.09B in Q2 to +$1.53B • Cash and investments reached $45.4B (lower spending and cash timing helped here, so the improvement wasn’t all from profit fyi) • 2026 capex guidance is now ~$20B. • Tesla also secured $30B in borrowing capacity, with no planned draws this year. CARS & FSD “Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It’s exceeding our production by a significant margin.” - Elon Musk • Deliveries were 486,532, down 2% YoY, but Tesla ended Q3 with its biggest passenger-car backlog in four years as battery supply remains the main production constraint today • Paid FSD users reached 1.74M, up 67% YoY • Over 75% of new North American deliveries included a paid FSD sign-up, versus over 55% in Q2 FYI, user count includes upfront buyers and monthly subscribers, with free trials excluded so half are now subscribers. To me, FSD is becoming a bigger reason people buy a Tesla, with subscription income continuing after the sale. Elon hopes for EU-wide approval by Q1 2027, but for now, regulators control the timing. CYBERCAB / ROBOTAXI • Cybercab rides started September 3 in Austin and Elon mentioned that its Austin fleet has grown 10x since launch • Cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles grew 8x during Q3 to nearly 2M • Ashok pointed to Dallas in November, while Tesla is targeting 24/7 service, highways and more weather conditions by year-end • Lars is trying to get the first Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026. Separately, Ashok expects the first customer-owned cars to join the Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027. • Management expects Robotaxi to become noticeable financially around Q2 2027 and potentially a “big deal” by Q3/Q4 2027. This is the opportunity I’m watching… vehicles earning $ revenue ride after ride, with costs improving as the service grows. OPTIMUS • Early production has started in Fremont, with a second factory under construction in Austin • Elon expects deliveries to outside companies around the end of 2027, starting with industrial, dangerous and repetitive work. He expects at least a year, possibly longer, to reach roughly 20,000 robots a week. ENERGY & OTHER THINGS “We’re actually almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027.” - Elon Musk • Storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh, up 10% YoY • Megafactory Texas started production • Energy revenue fell 16%, and tariff refunds and warranty adjustments helped margins, so the backlog and production ramp matter most to me. • Semi is in volume production. • Tesla is targeting roughly 5M vehicles a year by 2030, with volume chip production an aspiration for 2028. • Elon called the Roadster demo “arguably the coolest demo of any product ever”... I was there, and I agree. MY TAKE What excites me is how many ways Tesla can grow… FSD subscriptions, Robotaxi rides, energy storage and eventually Optimus. I’ve believed in this for years. I couldn’t care less what the stock does tomorrow or next week. What matters to me is Tesla building better products, growing the business and delivering on its long-term vision. Growth is back at Tesla, imo, and I think the most exciting years are still ahead. Congrats to the entire Tesla team!
🤖 Made with AI
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Teslaconomics retweeted
Replying to @dnapway
We have a shot at exceeding 10GW next year
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It’s clear to me that FSD is the main reason people are buying a Tesla… the fact that in North America, over 75% of new Tesla deliveries now come with FSD (Supervised), nearly 20 percentage points higher than last quarter. FSD is turbocharging demand for Teslas.
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Elon’s delivering that the one-two punch with back-to-back SpaceX and Tesla earnings calls, this guy really works super hard…
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Teslaconomics retweeted
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Teslaconomics retweeted
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
Tesla has just released its Q3 earnings results. Highlights: • EPS (non-GAAP): $0.48 (vs. $0.45 est) • Revenue: $28.05B (vs. $28.3B est) • Adjusted EBITDA: $3.90B • Active FSD Subscriptions: 1.74M, up 67% YoY from 1.04M • Net income (GAAP): $787M • Free cash flow: $1.53B • Capex: $4.73B • Cash & marketable securities: $45.45B, up 9% YoY
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Growth is back at Tesla. Huge congrats to the entire team on an incredible quarter! 👏 This what stands out to me from $TSLA Q3: THE FINANCIALS • Revenue: $28.0B, roughly flat year over year. • EPS: $0.48 vs. $0.45 expected. • Gross margin: 19.6%, up from 18.0% a year ago and comfortably above the 17.9% Wall Street expected. • Automotive gross margin excluding credits: 18.1%, up from 15.4%. Regulatory credit revenue fell from $417M to $113M. The underlying car business is getting more profitable. • Free cash flow: POSITIVE $1.5B. Wall Street expected NEGATIVE $4.5B! • Cash pile: $45.4B, up 9%. CARS • Production rose +4% to 464,391 vehicles. • Largest vehicle backlog in four years, with battery supply now the main constraint on more deliveries. • Record deliveries in Canada, Australia, Japan and Taiwan. • Record production at Giga Berlin. • Tesla built its 10 millionth vehicle. FSD • 1.74M active subscriptions, up 67% in a year. • More than 75% of new cars in North America now come with FSD, up nearly 20 percentage points in a single quarter. • Live in nine EU countries, with 100K+ customers and 160M+ kilometers driven. ROBOTAXI • Cybercab has been giving rides in Austin since September 3. • Nearly 2M unsupervised miles, up 8x in one quarter. • Austin service now runs from 6 a.m. to midnight. • Grok is inside Cybercab, letting you handle email, your calendar and tasks by voice while you ride. OPTIMUS • Production has started on the high-volume lines in Fremont, building Tesla’s first production-quality robots. SEMI • Now in volume production. • 500 miles of range at 82,000 lbs total weight, using roughly one-third the energy of a diesel truck. ENERGY • 13.7 GWh deployed, up 10%. • Record order rate and backlog. • Megafactory Texas is up and running, producing Megapacks. • First Megapacks built using only Tesla’s own LFP cells. AI COMPUTE • Targeting 400 MW of training compute by year-end. • Equipment installation at the Austin chip fab is planned to begin in 2027. The tradeoff of all this is that operating income fell to $718M as Tesla increased spending on AI R&D. That’s a real cost today, but I’m comfortable with Tesla investing in the future. Underneath the flat revenue headline we may see from news outlets, FSD subscriptions are growing, Robotaxi is expanding, energy orders are at a record, and Optimus and Semi are entering production. Meanwhile, the vehicle backlog is the largest it’s been in four years. It looks like to me the next leg of Tesla’s growth is taking shape right in front of us!
Q3 Shareholder Update → ir.tesla.com Highlights – FSD Supervised attach rate grew to over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in NA – Unveiled the next-gen Roadster – Record deliveries in Canada, Australia, Japan & Taiwan – Tesla Semi now in volume production. Top variant can go up to 500 miles at a full 82,000 lbs while achieving efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile – about a third of the energy a comparable diesel truck burns for the same load – Ended the quarter with the largest backlog for our passenger vehicles in 4 years! FSD Supervised – 4 new approvals since Q2 (Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia) – FSD is now live in nine EU countries & used by over 100,000 customers logging more than 160 million kilometers since initial approval Robotaxi – Deployed Cybercab into our Austin fleet – Hit nearly 2 million cumulative unsupervised miles, 8x growth in the quarter – Austin service now runs 6 am to midnight, with wait times continuing to come down as we add cars & improve the orchestration algorithms – Added Grok to Cybercab with Grok Bot & Connectors, letting you interface with your inbox, calendar, files, chats and tasks, all by voice. Transport, office & living room in one Robotics – Started production of @Tesla_Optimus on our high-volume lines in Fremont. These are the first production-quality bots we've built, proving that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product SI Compute – On track for 400 MW of training compute by year end, feeding both vehicle & humanoid autonomy – Austin Fab construction continues, equipment commissioning planned for 2027 Battery – Battery supply is still the limiter on how fast we ramp vehicles globally, so we're expanding on every front: pack capacity in Berlin, cathode and lithium refining in Texas, LFP cells in Nevada – Shipped the first Megapacks built entirely with our own LFP cells – Increasing 4680 output to support ramp of Cybercab, Semi & Model Y Energy – Megafactory Texas is up & running, with Megapack 3 production started – Highest-ever order rate & backlog for energy storage Grid constraints & power availability are making Megapack the answer for SI infrastructure demand: it excels at supplying large data center loads, smooths out demand spikes, helps new projects meet grid connection rules & makes the grid itself more stable All with less local fossil fuel generation Supporting Infrastructure – Added 2,100+ net new Supercharger stalls, up 14% year over year
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Teslaconomics retweeted
Q3 Earnings Call today at 4:30pm CT xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1jxXgBNRD…
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Umm… I’m pretty sure there’s nobody in the Tesla Cybercab, yet it’s out here helping make the roads safer. I swear, so many fools told me this would never happen. Now they have no choice but to watch it happen.
Robotaxi makes the roads safer for everyone
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Teslaconomics retweeted
Robotaxi coming soon: Las Vegas, Nevada Jacksonville, Florida Phoenix, Arizona San Antonio, Texas
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Teslaconomics retweeted
Grok Bot can now build reports, memos, and dashboards. Ask Bot for a page, then edit it together or have Bot keep it up to date.
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Teslaconomics retweeted
– 0 people injured by Robotaxi – 0 Robotaxi airbag deployments – 0 Pedestrians or cyclists hit tesla.com/robotaxi/safety
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Teslaconomics retweeted
We are launching the Tesla Robotaxi safety report today. Till date, Robotaxi has driven a total of 3.3 million miles autonomously, and has had zero injuries nor airbag deployments. If the same number of miles were to be manually driven, we should expect roughly 9 injuries to the occupants or other pedestrians and 4 airbag deployments on average. We will continue to transparently share our progress with the public using this page. tesla.com/robotaxi/safety
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For anyone who says SpaceX is overvalued, here’s why I think $SPCX is dirt cheap. Using the October 20 close as the baseline at roughly ~$2T in market cap, about $1.95T in enterprise value, and $32B in trailing GAAP revenue. That works out to roughly 61× EV/sales today. Yes, that’s expensive on trailing numbers… I 100% get it. Now hold that $1.95T enterprise value fixed and look at what management laid out on last night’s earnings call: 1/ $100B annualized revenue by December 2026 CFO Bret Johnsen reaffirmed that target, specifically defined as December revenue annualized and at the same EV, that’s roughly 19.5× the December run rate. 2/ $33B–$37B in revenue for Q1 2027 alone. That’s also from Bret fyi. Multiply that quarter by four and you get $132B–$148B, putting the multiple at roughly 13–15×, or about 14× at the midpoint. 3/ $500B–$1T in ARR by the end of 2027. That’s the range Elon mentioned on the call. At the same EV, you’re looking at roughly a 2–4× multiple at that projected run rate. This is Elon’s outlook, separate from the CFO’s guidance fyi. You see, the EV/Sales multiple compresses from 61× → 19.5× → ~14× → 2–4×! Same EV in every calculation… only the revenue denominator changes. I believe the team will turn enough of those ambitions into real revenue and lasting profits, which will make today’s $2T valuation look dirt cheap in hindsight. Last night’s call really made that conviction stronger for me… That’s the bet I’m making with $SPCX. This company is EXTREMELY cheap. NFA.
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I’m getting signs that today is going to be an awesome $TSLA earnings call
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SpaceX investors right now
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Bro… if SpaceX catches BOTH the booster and the ship next month, as Elon says they’ll attempt, everything Starship was built to make possible moves one massive step closer to reality. Full reusability changes the economics of getting to space. And when those economics change, the scale of what we can build there changes together. I don’t think the market has fully grasped what that unlocks. If they pull this off, I think the real repricing of $SPCX begins.
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Teslaconomics retweeted
I literally pressed the Action Button on my iPhone, and I just started talking to my CEO Grok Bot. I gave her three jobs: 1/ Plan Taco Tuesday for my family of four, so put all the ingredients I need in my Amazon cart so I can review it and place the order myself. 2/ Check the latest on my $ cash across all my accounts and credit card bills. Tell me what’s covered and what needs my attention. 3/ Make a pie chart of everything I spent last month. Then, tonight's dinner ingredients for Taco Tuesday were in my cart for review, my cash and bills were laid out for me, and a spending chart of last month was summarized for me. I didn’t need to open Amazon. I didn’t need to log into my bank accounts. I didn’t need to make a spreadsheet. Everything was completed for me using just one button and my voice. Grok Bot hooked up to your iPhone’s Action Button is a game changer. If you want to multiply your productivity, you need to set this up. The amount you can get done just by pressing one button and talking is ridiculous. For real... wow.
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