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2k to 100k public challenge finished on @fomo ✅
No crazy 8 figures pnl but still something I hope is inspiring, and more realistic than what you see following popular accounts:
- Started with a 2k capital 2 months ago
- All trades on fomo (except 1 or 2 coins that were not available on fomo at the launch of RH chain)
- No copy traders
- Simple trading style: Usually avoid new launches, degen plays and coins below 1M mc.
- Instead size into utility coins with great tokenomics / coins with a lot of good holders / coins with the most viral narratives. Hold for days-weeks for x2-20.
Honestly it should have been much more than a 100k pnl, I made a ton of mistake and it took me a while to adapt to the market, but it’s a very low risk and accessible trading style.
Of course I could have also just held Pons and made Millions. It is what it is. It's important to have big goals but we also need to be proud of smaller achievements. All in all, I had low confidence and capital at the time, and that's a good first step for me.
There is still a lot to improve on my side, especially in how to trade PvP coins, how to correctly size and how to improve my mindset longterm.
Now it’s time to start the fun part! 100k to 1M! We finally have the capital to properly size and buy 1% of the good coins 😈
Feel free to follow me on Fomo to find out about my next moves: @ CryptoManiaques and @ CMotg
If you use my Ref (link in bio), shoot me a DM, I'm taking time every day to answer my refs about potential thesis, and I have plans to give more value in the future.
I think this has been the main issue with both pf and fomo, rewarding extractive behaviors and encouraging shitcoins, bundlers and copytraders.
PF seems to be the first to move in the right direction even if it goes against their incentives here.
Also fees and executions seems to be better.
I will give PF a proper try and see what I enjoy more, but for a conviction trader like me this makes a lot more sense.
We're rolling out a few big changes to the Callout Rewards program over the coming days, starting with today's payout. Here's what to expect:
- Callouts on lowcap tokens will be nerfed. We want callouts to incentivize larger wealth effects that affect more people, rather than only benefiting a small group of sophisticated traders
- Volume will cease to be the main attributer for rewards. The focus will be on what matters most: whether the people that trusted your callout were able to make money or not.
Going forward, your goal should be to lead your followers to victory, otherwise your chances of consistently earning are SIGNIFICANTLY lower.
Win as a team —> win as an individual.
Sounds insane so I had to check the math myself
It works
🤯
Thought about this more, what if we could build you that same trade without you even needing to risk the $238k?
NetNet keeps the principal in NET sealed and only spends income on your ticket. Each epoch we route your rebases into a pool "ETH above 5k by March". Effectively can create a no-loss-lottery style derivative.
So instead of a $240K bet on ETH, you'd be placing a risk free bet on ETH, with a $98K bet on NET (that worst case trades at NAV). Your downside no longer becomes 0, and the capital you need to layout is ~60% smaller. Oh and what happens if NET trades 10x from here in 6 months, what about 100x?
Thoughts?
Is it reasonable to say that Clarity Act could be a cycle catalyst as strong as Crypto ETFs?
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Trenches are now as extractive as ever, more reasons to size into safer bets and conviction plays.
Here's a list of what I currently like:
Low possible risk with great potential: robinhood:0x8d1612b4b78ebf08cfbf01a04fa270ccbb0509a2 and $NET
Slightly riskier but high ceilings: $UBIK and robinhood:0x42afa2124ca5a2b83898e46b2da9a190995b1e18
Bigger but great upside with the Clarity Act vote: $TIBBIR and solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp
What should I look into next?
2k to 100k public challenge finished on @fomo ✅
No crazy 8 figures pnl but still something I hope is inspiring, and more realistic than what you see following popular accounts:
- Started with a 2k capital 2 months ago
- All trades on fomo (except 1 or 2 coins that were not available on fomo at the launch of RH chain)
- No copy traders
- Simple trading style: Usually avoid new launches, degen plays and coins below 1M mc.
- Instead size into utility coins with great tokenomics / coins with a lot of good holders / coins with the most viral narratives. Hold for days-weeks for x2-20.
Honestly it should have been much more than a 100k pnl, I made a ton of mistake and it took me a while to adapt to the market, but it’s a very low risk and accessible trading style.
Of course I could have also just held Pons and made Millions. It is what it is. It's important to have big goals but we also need to be proud of smaller achievements. All in all, I had low confidence and capital at the time, and that's a good first step for me.
There is still a lot to improve on my side, especially in how to trade PvP coins, how to correctly size and how to improve my mindset longterm.
Now it’s time to start the fun part! 100k to 1M! We finally have the capital to properly size and buy 1% of the good coins 😈
Feel free to follow me on Fomo to find out about my next moves: @ CryptoManiaques and @ CMotg
If you use my Ref (link in bio), shoot me a DM, I'm taking time every day to answer my refs about potential thesis, and I have plans to give more value in the future.
CM retweeted
.@LaunchOnSF launched just over a month ago
- it is now sitting at $300m fdv
- the top 100 coins on the launchpad are valued over $200m
- the "yield" from holding assets on stonk reminds me of OG DeFi days
- $20m paid out to holders
- 15% of the token has been burned
- has become an everything launchpad
- is the best platform to launch tokens paired with tokenized assets on @solana
- does more revenue than pons (which went to $1bn ATH)
- still no CEX listings
$STONK will be one of the leaders this cycle.
data from thestonkboard.com/
CM retweeted
Our FDV, explained.
FDV is our price multiplied by all 500m UP in existence.
Nearly half of that 500m is burnt or sealed away with more due over the coming months. This can never move again.
Almost all of the rest is locked, and locked UP cannot be sold.
20m was in circulation at launch. It is 19.91m today, despite releasing around 1m in emissions a week. Locking has absorbed more than the schedule has released, all whilst generating $800k+ in revenue for UP lockers.
Our goal is to inflate UP as little as possible and drive as much revenue to UP lockers as possible, and so far that is exactly what has happened.
Stay up ↑
This Robinhood listing changes everything
A lot of signals that you can trust Vlad and that they are paying attention. Nothing is here by mistake
Everything they say/do has 10x more power now
And some old tweet and thesis will be interpreted to a whole different level 🐸
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CM retweeted
Funniest callout of the year from $VIAV on CPO timelines:
"Well, there's been a lot of industry talk [about delays], like, 'Oh, because the yield is going to be slower.'
That's all nonsense. CPO and all that thing is moving forward"
They stated that Yes there's always issues, but the process is being improved and things are getting better.
To follow up on that, the CEO stated:
- Viavi has POs for CPO-testing activity
- “We’re already getting [CPO revenue] this quarter, and probably in December it will start accelerating.”
On a side note, they also stated, 1.6T is "ramping very quickly", should reach parity with 800g next year, and signaled longer tail for 800g demand.
TLDR: Seeing CPO test revenues hit for $VIAV to $FORM around now. Nvidia also stated switch-side CPO for scale out and scale across has entered mass production earlier.
As for scale up timelines, early production should be H2 2027 for some players, with other CPO players Ayar stating 2028 is the volume inflection period.
Basically, all the timelines seem to be the same as before and revenue is starting to hit testing players first.
If you like math I have a thesis for you on the new virtual launch $EXY based on its tokenomics. (my quant says it can only go up)
- 25% vested for a year +
- 25% ACF (sell slowly from 2M to 160M marketcap then vest the USDC)
- 44% prebuy by the team (vested 1 month+ then linear over a long period of time)
So that's already 93% not circulating for a while (around 1% of these 94% is released for early marketing/airdrop)
Now we have 7% left.
The launch happened with antisniper on. Over 98 minutes, the buy tax went from 99% to 1%.
In order to buy early, buyers spent ~96.6K VIRTUAL (~$55K) in fees.
Where is this money going? To buybacks, within 24 hours of launch.
Considering the current LP, it's a 190% price impact on the current chart. (it's also ~1% more of the supply going out of circulation)
So basically you have a launch where:
- no one bought below 3.5M fdv because of the anti sniper tax.
- The only way the token is going down is people selling at breakeven or at a loss
- 55k$ of net buy pressure is coming from the anti sniper buy back
- No major unlock for at the very least 1 month
- Legit robotic team @exylos_ai in the current virtual/robotic season, adressing a major issue (data training for robots)
NFA, but trading is about risk reward, and when the risk is close to 0, the risk reward is usually quite good
CM retweeted
this is the world's first ever humanoid robot that will summit Mt. Everest
it's named Pemba, and two days ago it reached the top of Chimborazo, a 20,000-foot peak in Ecuador, completely on its own (no remote or operator).
and the robot itself is nothing special. Pemba is a Unitree G1, the same ~$14k robot anyone can buy online right now.
the guy behind it, Pablo Berlanga, is doing this to send robots into the places that kill people.
think about how you'd check on a melting glacier or a deadly crevasse out in the middle of nowhere today.
you either send a person who might not come back, or you skip it and learn nothing.
so Berlanga wants a robot that walks in on its own, carries a few pounds of gear, and brings back footage from places no human can safely reach.
i think eventually they'll even be used for robot rescue missions to reach people stranded in disasters and dangerous situations
from here, the plan for Pemba is Mauna Kea in Hawaii, then Everest.
Everest is the tricky one.
the team wanted to send Pemba up this spring to start hauling trash off the mountain and tracking its glaciers (something Nepal genuinely needs help with)
but the Nepalese government told them to wait.
there's no law in Nepal for a climber that isn't human, so the rules have to get written before a robot can set foot on the mountain.
kind of incredible that the machine is ready for Everest a full year before anyone's decided whether it's allowed to be up there
In this market condition you want to focus on projects with good R/R (low downside) and that are relevant to the upcoming narratives.
Some ideas:
⚽ World cup - a couple of good tokens, you can pick your favorite
🌌 Space X ICO - I like ethereum:0x12419a0427c2a27a61c1cb4a49f5fad24fd4e671 (eth) the most
🤖 Robotic - I like $Peak, especially because the tokenomics make the possible downside quite small at current marketcap while the upside has no limit. There's a lot of other good tokens to chose from though
💎 "Good Safe Coins" that you can DCA slowly - Things with real revenue, like $Hype, possibly $Cards, $virtual, whatever your conviction plays are 🐸
So either something legit, with utility or revenue, or something trendy with short term narratives and catalysts is what I'm going for.
Trying to make the list as short as possible, it's not a good time to spread into many coins as a lot of them will go to 0 and never recover. But it's also where you can find the x100. GL
CM retweeted
24 hours since the summit, and the momentum is far bigger than we imagined.
8,000+ of you tuned in live, organically. We truly didn't see that coming. The support, energy, and belief from this community in less than 24 hours has been overwhelming. Thank you.
Many of you have launched separate tokens on Bankr and Pump, and we appreciate the love from those communities.
But today we claim and declare it officially: the one ticker for this movement is $PEAK on @virtuals_io.
Fees from $PEAK go directly to indigenous mountaineering communities in Ecuador, Hawaii, and Nepal. We believe robots can serve these communities through transport, food amenities, access and much more. That's the mission.
Next, we showcase Pemba to the Ecuadorian people. Then Hawaii for Mauna Kea. Then final stop, Everest.
One ticker. One mission. One movement.
We're not stopping until our robot goes to space.
$PEAK CA: 0x296eB9c4D8fCbd00fBc6D5027e4202BF955fA76f
The sad thing about Web3 lately, and especially Prediction markets is that everything is based on crime and insiders.
The best investment thesis is "X cabal is in" or "he will probably crime it like he crimed Y before"
The best prediction markets trades are when you're on the side of the scammer who's gonna scam wick the last second of the BTC 5 min up&down candle
It's especially cringe when you start doing on chain analysis and everything that should be a red flag now turns into a potential catalyst
It does not make it harder to make money on chain, but:
- Unless you are close to the crime, you're playing a rigged Casino (doesn't mean you can't win)
- Pretty bad look for our industry
I would be really surprised to not see really heavy regulations on prediction markets soon.
The insider trading is a little too obvious there.
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Happy to join Definitive contest next week!
Definitive has been where I do all of my trading for almost a year now:
- Lowest fees on the market (10x less than competitors)
- Multichain with Bridge included
- Awesome features like TWAP
Give it a try: app.definitive.fi/r/CMCM
The Definitive Trading Contest (powered by @base) is launching next week.
$50,000+ in prizes.
Every trade grows the prize pool.
Think you've got what it takes?
Full details dropping soon 👀
