CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Joined May 2010
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Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
The internet was built for humans.
What if its next billion users are AI agents?
@EvanWeb3 goes deep with @CryptoMichNL on why today's internet breaks for agents, and the trust layer Sui is building for them 👇
This is the conversation that made me even more bullish on $SUI.
Somewhere in this conversation Evan Cheng and I started joking about home robots. One day you come home, he said, and it's not cleaning your house: "it's cleaning OUT your house. And walking away with everything."
We were laughing. Then he added: "If you really think about it, it's entirely possible." And that's basically the whole episode.
@evanweb3 built developer tools at Apple and Meta before founding Mysten Labs, the company behind @suinetwork. We recorded in Singapore, where I was speaking at SUI Basecamp, and honestly, this became one of those conversations where I walked in with questions about stablecoins and walked out rethinking how the internet works.
His core point, the one I keep replaying:
"The web is built for humans. You cannot retrofit it to handle agents."
Everything online assumes a human on the other end, identity, trust, the fact that you can sue someone. Agents break all of it. His example hit home because I told him I get phishing mails daily that even make ME hesitate (and I confessed to my 50,000 unread emails, which he graciously ignored). Now imagine your agent reading those mails with full access to your accounts. His words: "Email is the biggest freaking attack vector... such a legacy protocol."
And his most honest line, about how this plays out:
"Disaster will happen. That's part of the progress."
That’s already what’s happening in the world nowadays. PHP websites aren’t safe anymore, even freezers and fridges are being hacked. Our infrastructure needs to be updated, and that’s why this episode and SUI became so important.
Thanks to @OKX for being today’s sponsor of the show.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - When Will We Stop Talking About Blockchain?
05:44 - Why Stablecoins Finally Took Off
09:22 - What Stops Normal People From Using Stablecoins
11:38 - Can You Insure An AI Agent?
15:14 - Who Pays When Your AI Agent Gets Hacked?
23:05 - Is It Too Late To Stop AI?
29:15 - Why The Internet Will Break For AI Agents
32:11 - How One Email Could Empty Your Bank Account
35:03 - "Disaster Will Happen"
38:36 - How To Stop An AI Agent From Going Rogue
46:11 - How Sui Wants To Win The Agent Economy
47:23 - Why Sui?
53:23 - Where Sui Will Be In A Year
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
Everyone is giving their AI agents access to everything.
Email. Passwords. Credit cards. Even bank accounts.
Sui's @EvanWeb3 doesn't sugarcoat it: "Disaster will happen. That's part of the progress."
@SuiNetwork
This is the conversation that made me even more bullish on $SUI.
Somewhere in this conversation Evan Cheng and I started joking about home robots. One day you come home, he said, and it's not cleaning your house: "it's cleaning OUT your house. And walking away with everything."
We were laughing. Then he added: "If you really think about it, it's entirely possible." And that's basically the whole episode.
@evanweb3 built developer tools at Apple and Meta before founding Mysten Labs, the company behind @suinetwork. We recorded in Singapore, where I was speaking at SUI Basecamp, and honestly, this became one of those conversations where I walked in with questions about stablecoins and walked out rethinking how the internet works.
His core point, the one I keep replaying:
"The web is built for humans. You cannot retrofit it to handle agents."
Everything online assumes a human on the other end, identity, trust, the fact that you can sue someone. Agents break all of it. His example hit home because I told him I get phishing mails daily that even make ME hesitate (and I confessed to my 50,000 unread emails, which he graciously ignored). Now imagine your agent reading those mails with full access to your accounts. His words: "Email is the biggest freaking attack vector... such a legacy protocol."
And his most honest line, about how this plays out:
"Disaster will happen. That's part of the progress."
That’s already what’s happening in the world nowadays. PHP websites aren’t safe anymore, even freezers and fridges are being hacked. Our infrastructure needs to be updated, and that’s why this episode and SUI became so important.
Thanks to @OKX for being today’s sponsor of the show.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - When Will We Stop Talking About Blockchain?
05:44 - Why Stablecoins Finally Took Off
09:22 - What Stops Normal People From Using Stablecoins
11:38 - Can You Insure An AI Agent?
15:14 - Who Pays When Your AI Agent Gets Hacked?
23:05 - Is It Too Late To Stop AI?
29:15 - Why The Internet Will Break For AI Agents
32:11 - How One Email Could Empty Your Bank Account
35:03 - "Disaster Will Happen"
38:36 - How To Stop An AI Agent From Going Rogue
46:11 - How Sui Wants To Win The Agent Economy
47:23 - Why Sui?
53:23 - Where Sui Will Be In A Year
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"The web is built for humans. You cannot retrofit it to handle agents."
Every builder we've had on this show is racing toward the same future, AI agents that transact. Evan Cheng (@evanweb3) is the first one who walked us through why the internet underneath them can't carry it.
Cheng built developer infrastructure at Apple and Meta before founding Mysten Labs. His argument: the entire web runs on one hidden assumption, a human on the other end. Identity, reputation, legal recourse, even spam filters. Replace the human with an agent that "has a brain attached to it", one that gets blocked, comes back two minutes later with a different approach, then starts reverse-engineering your stack, and that trust layer simply stops applying.
And this isn't theoretical. The current infrastructure is already failing at human speed: legacy protocols, aging web stacks, even smart fridges getting hacked. Email, the channel companies now connect their agents to, is, in his words, "the biggest freaking attack vector... such a legacy protocol."
His unlock is the one crypto has been building for fifteen years without knowing this was the destination: "Assuming your counterparty is potentially a bad actor, adversarial relationships with Byzantine fault tolerance, it turns out that is a world we're very, very familiar with."
It's the thread running through our last months. Coutts called agents a demand driver. Goertzel gave them a timeline. Concordium asked who's liable. Cheng's answer: cap the worst case before the transaction, log every consequential action, settle with evidence on-chain, and then, finally, someone can write the insurance policy.
Translation: the agent economy doesn't need a faster web. It needs a web where trust is enforced by protocol instead of assumed by design. That's not a crypto use case. That's crypto as the load-bearing wall.
His warning stands either way: "Disaster will happen. That's part of the progress."
This is the conversation that made me even more bullish on $SUI.
Somewhere in this conversation Evan Cheng and I started joking about home robots. One day you come home, he said, and it's not cleaning your house: "it's cleaning OUT your house. And walking away with everything."
We were laughing. Then he added: "If you really think about it, it's entirely possible." And that's basically the whole episode.
@evanweb3 built developer tools at Apple and Meta before founding Mysten Labs, the company behind @suinetwork. We recorded in Singapore, where I was speaking at SUI Basecamp, and honestly, this became one of those conversations where I walked in with questions about stablecoins and walked out rethinking how the internet works.
His core point, the one I keep replaying:
"The web is built for humans. You cannot retrofit it to handle agents."
Everything online assumes a human on the other end, identity, trust, the fact that you can sue someone. Agents break all of it. His example hit home because I told him I get phishing mails daily that even make ME hesitate (and I confessed to my 50,000 unread emails, which he graciously ignored). Now imagine your agent reading those mails with full access to your accounts. His words: "Email is the biggest freaking attack vector... such a legacy protocol."
And his most honest line, about how this plays out:
"Disaster will happen. That's part of the progress."
That’s already what’s happening in the world nowadays. PHP websites aren’t safe anymore, even freezers and fridges are being hacked. Our infrastructure needs to be updated, and that’s why this episode and SUI became so important.
Thanks to @OKX for being today’s sponsor of the show.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - When Will We Stop Talking About Blockchain?
05:44 - Why Stablecoins Finally Took Off
09:22 - What Stops Normal People From Using Stablecoins
11:38 - Can You Insure An AI Agent?
15:14 - Who Pays When Your AI Agent Gets Hacked?
23:05 - Is It Too Late To Stop AI?
29:15 - Why The Internet Will Break For AI Agents
32:11 - How One Email Could Empty Your Bank Account
35:03 - "Disaster Will Happen"
38:36 - How To Stop An AI Agent From Going Rogue
46:11 - How Sui Wants To Win The Agent Economy
47:23 - Why Sui?
53:23 - Where Sui Will Be In A Year
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
@RaoulGMI says it's still about liquidity.
"When you look at liquidity it's not rising enough."
Shutdown drained it. Hiring isn't lifting. Bottlenecks in power keep prices sticky. Clear those and the gasoline is liquidity.
Full episode with Raoul Pal on our YouTube.
Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle.
@RaoulGMI reads it completely differently:
"This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020."
His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while.
Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore.
In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel:
"So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity."
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show.
We cover:
- Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time
- The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money
- How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code
- AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks
- #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction
- Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test
- How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year
Timestamps:
00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore
04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck
05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish
11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race
18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb
24:48 - Building Everything With AI
32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk
42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out?
45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction
51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity
54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win
1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
You don't know which database this is recorded on. And you don't care.
@RaoulGMI on blockchain:
"It's an infrastructure project. You shouldn't care. It just works."
We confuse the token with the rails. The rails are the point.
Full episode with Raoul Pal on our YouTube.
Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle.
@RaoulGMI reads it completely differently:
"This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020."
His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while.
Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore.
In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel:
"So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity."
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show.
We cover:
- Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time
- The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money
- How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code
- AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks
- #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction
- Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test
- How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year
Timestamps:
00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore
04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck
05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish
11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race
18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb
24:48 - Building Everything With AI
32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk
42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out?
45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction
51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity
54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win
1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
Worried AI takes your job?
@RaoulGMI's answer is blunt:
"If you're worried about your job because of robots and AI, invest in the robots and AI."
Side work. Relocate. Participate. Don't just hope the 9 to 5 holds.
Full episode with Raoul Pal on our YouTube.
Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle.
@RaoulGMI reads it completely differently:
"This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020."
His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while.
Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore.
In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel:
"So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity."
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show.
We cover:
- Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time
- The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money
- How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code
- AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks
- #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction
- Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test
- How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year
Timestamps:
00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore
04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck
05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish
11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race
18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb
24:48 - Building Everything With AI
32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk
42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out?
45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction
51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity
54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win
1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
Blockchain came with a token attached, so we decided the token was the product. It never was. Chains are infrastructure.
Nobody knows what database their brokerage runs on. Nobody knows what internet theyre on. It just works, so you dont ask. Thats where this ends up. Youll buy an equity and have no idea its on chain, and youll never need to.
Which is why the financial system coming in is a good thing. Crypto is still hard to use and they tighten all of that up.
Convergence is the answer.
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"That is the entire Bitcoin thesis and self-custody thesis." @CryptoMichNL of @MNCapital_vc on Paraguay, where he says people were locked out of their bank accounts, at Bitcoin Amsterdam. #BitcoinAmsterdam
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
MICHAËL VAN DE POPPE: "There's no reason to hold any dollars or to hold any particular stock, because of the fact that the risks of the stock becoming worthless in the next five years due to AI have increased and will continue to increase, and that simply won't happen to Bitcoin."
@CryptoMichNL
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
We've been printing in our community.
The first three months of providing daytrades, the result: 33.7R.
What's that?
Well, let's say you risk 1% per trade, you'd made almost 34% in return. If you risk 2% per trade, it's 68%.
There are three active daytrades running right now.
Only for $10 per month.
Join here:
xitter.gq/CryptoMichNL/creator-s…
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"This is probably the most challenging period of time in managing money in the 26 years I've been doing it."
"If you just sit on the sidelines waiting for this all to play out, you might miss a lot of opportunities along the way."
Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), CEO of Santiago Capital, on investing in uncertain times.
Be prepared for all the scenarios instead of trying to predict them. That's how you will survive the markets.
My last five guests told you the dollar is dying. Brent Johnson manages money on the opposite thesis, and he came on to defend it.
"I think a lot of people who want to have a quick end to this whole nonsense are gonna be disappointed. I think this is gonna go on much longer than people think, but that doesn't mean there won't be pockets of great volatility along the way."
Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) is CEO of Santiago Capital and the man behind the Dollar Milkshake Theory. His line that reframes the whole collapse debate:
"Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable."
He agrees it ends badly. He's watched people trade the ending for eight years and lose. "Things don't end just because they should."
We cover:
- Why higher rates are, in his words, "actually stimulative", until you hit the wall
- The 2022 proof: the US froze Russia's reserves, the ultimate reason to flee the dollar, and the dollar index ran from 98 to 114
- Want vs need: "I totally understand people might not want the dollar. The fact is, like it or not, they still need it"
- Stablecoins as a stealth dollar expansion, 99% of all stablecoins are dollar stablecoins
- Why he calls this the most challenging period in his 26 years of managing money
- And the surprise at the end: what he actually owns in #crypto rails
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Markets And Interest Rates
06:29 - The Global Economy
10:14 - Capital Flows
13:53 - The K-Shaped Economy
19:23 - Centrally Planned Economies
24:36 - Value Investing
34:02 - Long-Term Investing
40:49 - AI And Investing
42:40 - Stablecoins And Finance
54:23 - Risks And Opportunities
Every debasement guest on this channel says the dollar loses. He says it drains everyone else first. Someone's wrong.
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
Voting is still open. MN Fund is nominated for Best Crypto Fund 2026 at the Cashcow Awards, announced on 13 November in Amsterdam.
A vote takes seconds and gets you a free ticket to the Beleggersfair and the Crypto Congres.
Vote here → cashcow.nl/awards/
Voting is open for the Cashcow Awards 2026, and MN Fund is nominated for Best Crypto Fund in the Netherlands.
What got us here is not a single good month. It’s risk management first, and a consistent positive return versus Bitcoin across the months that went up and the months that didn’t.
Casting a vote takes a few seconds, and it gets you a free ticket to the @Beleggersfair in Amsterdam on November 13.
Vote here →cashcow.nl/awards/
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
“I think this is going to go on much longer than people think.”
Brent Johnson on government debt.
In 2022 Europe, the UK and Japan all had problems with their government bonds, but governments got through it. Brent thinks they can keep postponing the problem even longer.
Watch our full episode with Brent (@SantiagoAuFund) on your go to platform.
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable."
@SantiagoAuFund's Brent Johnson, Dollar Milkshake Theory, on the most expensive mistake in macro:
"We all know that this ends badly. We just don't know when... Things don't end just because they should."
His proof is 2022. The US froze $300-400 billion of Russian reserves, if ever there was a signal that dollar reserves aren't safe, that was it. The textbook says everyone flees the dollar. Instead: "the dollar index went from like 98 to 114 in six months." Because energy, food and debt all settle in dollars, "even if you hate the dollar, you still need it."
And the newest chapter is the quietest: stablecoins. 99% of them are dollar stablecoins, not forced on anyone, demanded. His words: "a surreptitious, stealthy way for the US to invade, for lack of a better way of saying it, on a non-military basis, the rest of the world."
Translation: the collapse thesis and the dollar thesis aren't actually opposites. Both camps agree it ends badly. The entire disagreement, and the entire trade, is sequencing: the dollar drains the world before it drowns. Betting on the ending while skipping the middle is how shorts die in a system that can still kick the can.
The last guests here called the dollar's funeral. He's asking who pays for it first. Which bet survives being early?
My last five guests told you the dollar is dying. Brent Johnson manages money on the opposite thesis, and he came on to defend it.
"I think a lot of people who want to have a quick end to this whole nonsense are gonna be disappointed. I think this is gonna go on much longer than people think, but that doesn't mean there won't be pockets of great volatility along the way."
Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) is CEO of Santiago Capital and the man behind the Dollar Milkshake Theory. His line that reframes the whole collapse debate:
"Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable."
He agrees it ends badly. He's watched people trade the ending for eight years and lose. "Things don't end just because they should."
We cover:
- Why higher rates are, in his words, "actually stimulative", until you hit the wall
- The 2022 proof: the US froze Russia's reserves, the ultimate reason to flee the dollar, and the dollar index ran from 98 to 114
- Want vs need: "I totally understand people might not want the dollar. The fact is, like it or not, they still need it"
- Stablecoins as a stealth dollar expansion, 99% of all stablecoins are dollar stablecoins
- Why he calls this the most challenging period in his 26 years of managing money
- And the surprise at the end: what he actually owns in #crypto rails
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Markets And Interest Rates
06:29 - The Global Economy
10:14 - Capital Flows
13:53 - The K-Shaped Economy
19:23 - Centrally Planned Economies
24:36 - Value Investing
34:02 - Long-Term Investing
40:49 - AI And Investing
42:40 - Stablecoins And Finance
54:23 - Risks And Opportunities
Every debasement guest on this channel says the dollar loses. He says it drains everyone else first. Someone's wrong.
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"I call it the Lord of the Rings scenario. One chain to rule all chains. And that's Bitcoin."
That's Mark Yusko's take on why Bitcoin is closer to mass adoption than most people think.
"All technology follows S curves, right? Takes a long time, a decade or more, to kind of get the first few percent, and then you get this inflection point, and you do go very parabolic for a decade, and then you get maturity later on."
In his view, we are closer to "the point at which mass adoption comes and the network effect is bigger."
His target: "I think super easily it's a $15 trillion dollar asset. The monetary value of gold, fifteen trillion, absolutely Bitcoin should be there." On timing: "Maybe over the next five. Eight, 10 years. I don't know with the timing, but I think that's absolutely gonna happen."
And governments? "Governments are gonna wake up and say, geez, if I'm holding gold, gold's fine, but I need to hold some Bitcoin too." Today, he says, "Bitcoin is just traded between believers."
Thanks to @MarkYusko for joining us on @new_era_finance. Watch the full episode on YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Mark Yusko ran institutional money for decades. @MarkYusko his #Bitcoin math is the calmest bullish case you'll hear this month:
"I think Bitcoin, you know, it's coming up on two trillion dollars again. I think super easily it's a $15 trillion asset."
Not a moonboy number. A fair value model built on Metcalfe's law, network value scaling with users, from the CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital. And he's equally clear about the timeline: getting there takes 5 to 10 years, through a slow "crypto spring" before "crypto summer", with the fast move only coming after the next halving.
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show!
The monetary backdrop is what carries the thesis:
- $10 trillion issued in the last 5 years, as much as in the first 245 years of the United States
- Inflation quietly taking 50% of your purchasing power over 30 years
- And governments, in his view, about to become Bitcoin holders themselves
We cover:
- His Metcalfe-based fair value model, and why price sits below it
- Lessons from Japan, the Great Depression parallel, and the K-shaped economy
- Why scarcity wins every currency debate in history
- The honest part most bulls skip: why returns shrink as Bitcoin gets bigger
- Bitcoin's role in the future financial system
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Is Bitcoin Out Of The Woods?
03:50 - Accumulation And Bull Markets
07:10 - Lessons From Japan
09:57 - The Great Depression Parallel
12:58 - The K-Shaped Economy
15:48 - Lessons From Currency History
19:11 - Why Scarcity Wins
22:11 - Risks To The Financial System
29:16 - Inflation And Investing
35:18 - Bitcoin Market Cycles
41:45 - Diminishing Returns
47:35 - Bitcoin In The Future Economy
53:41 - Future Financial Infrastructure
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"I'm a value guy by nature, so I like to buy things on sale."
Who doesn't? Mark Yusko on where Bitcoin trades compared to fair value.
His model is built on Metcalfe's law:
"So today the fair value is around $105,000." When we recorded, Bitcoin was at $85,000. And what does he do when the price is below fair value? "I consider myself an investor, I like to buy things below their fair value and hold them."
The cycle is baked into the code. "One of the most genius things to me that Satoshi did is build in the halving cycle." His view: "I think we will move toward fair value over the next year and a half," then another parabolic spike in 2029, after the halving.
He is honest about the limits too. Returns shrink as Bitcoin grows: "The compound return off a large number is going to be lower."
There is also a warning on the AI boom: "It's gonna end super badly because we live in a world bounded by math and physics. And when people lose touch with that, I think that's when mistakes happen."
Thanks to @MarkYusko for coming on @new_era_finance
Mark Yusko ran institutional money for decades. @MarkYusko his #Bitcoin math is the calmest bullish case you'll hear this month:
"I think Bitcoin, you know, it's coming up on two trillion dollars again. I think super easily it's a $15 trillion asset."
Not a moonboy number. A fair value model built on Metcalfe's law, network value scaling with users, from the CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital. And he's equally clear about the timeline: getting there takes 5 to 10 years, through a slow "crypto spring" before "crypto summer", with the fast move only coming after the next halving.
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show!
The monetary backdrop is what carries the thesis:
- $10 trillion issued in the last 5 years, as much as in the first 245 years of the United States
- Inflation quietly taking 50% of your purchasing power over 30 years
- And governments, in his view, about to become Bitcoin holders themselves
We cover:
- His Metcalfe-based fair value model, and why price sits below it
- Lessons from Japan, the Great Depression parallel, and the K-shaped economy
- Why scarcity wins every currency debate in history
- The honest part most bulls skip: why returns shrink as Bitcoin gets bigger
- Bitcoin's role in the future financial system
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Is Bitcoin Out Of The Woods?
03:50 - Accumulation And Bull Markets
07:10 - Lessons From Japan
09:57 - The Great Depression Parallel
12:58 - The K-Shaped Economy
15:48 - Lessons From Currency History
19:11 - Why Scarcity Wins
22:11 - Risks To The Financial System
29:16 - Inflation And Investing
35:18 - Bitcoin Market Cycles
41:45 - Diminishing Returns
47:35 - Bitcoin In The Future Economy
53:41 - Future Financial Infrastructure
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"You and I will lose 50% on average of our purchasing power. So half of our wealth will be stolen through this thing called inflation."
Mark Yusko on what 30 years of inflation does to your money, and how he thinks about it across three time horizons.
For the next 4 to 5 years, you need stable, liquid assets for the things you have to pay for. After that, cash isn't enough: "If inflation runs higher than your yield, you're actually falling behind. You're being stolen from." Owning companies isn't a safe answer either: "As you go out over 30 years, 85% of the companies disappear because of competition."
Why is it happening? Look at the numbers. "In the first 245 years of being a republic, we issued 10 trillion dollars. In the last five years, we've issued 10 trillion dollars."
In his words: "You just magically print another trillion dollars, the value of your currency just fell in half." And so, "it shouldn't be surprising that the price of gold doubled or the price of Bitcoin doubled over that period. That's just math."
Listen to the full episode on YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Thanks to @MarkYusko for joining us on @new_era_finance
Mark Yusko ran institutional money for decades. @MarkYusko his #Bitcoin math is the calmest bullish case you'll hear this month:
"I think Bitcoin, you know, it's coming up on two trillion dollars again. I think super easily it's a $15 trillion asset."
Not a moonboy number. A fair value model built on Metcalfe's law, network value scaling with users, from the CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital. And he's equally clear about the timeline: getting there takes 5 to 10 years, through a slow "crypto spring" before "crypto summer", with the fast move only coming after the next halving.
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show!
The monetary backdrop is what carries the thesis:
- $10 trillion issued in the last 5 years, as much as in the first 245 years of the United States
- Inflation quietly taking 50% of your purchasing power over 30 years
- And governments, in his view, about to become Bitcoin holders themselves
We cover:
- His Metcalfe-based fair value model, and why price sits below it
- Lessons from Japan, the Great Depression parallel, and the K-shaped economy
- Why scarcity wins every currency debate in history
- The honest part most bulls skip: why returns shrink as Bitcoin gets bigger
- Bitcoin's role in the future financial system
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Is Bitcoin Out Of The Woods?
03:50 - Accumulation And Bull Markets
07:10 - Lessons From Japan
09:57 - The Great Depression Parallel
12:58 - The K-Shaped Economy
15:48 - Lessons From Currency History
19:11 - Why Scarcity Wins
22:11 - Risks To The Financial System
29:16 - Inflation And Investing
35:18 - Bitcoin Market Cycles
41:45 - Diminishing Returns
47:35 - Bitcoin In The Future Economy
53:41 - Future Financial Infrastructure
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"The dollar used to be this really important thing, and everyone around the world wanted the dollar. Now people are like, Nope, give me gold."
@MarkYusko explains what happens to a currency when it gets printed.
An ounce of gold hasn't changed in 5,000 years, but "in that time, there have been 775 paper currencies. Three-quarters of them no longer exist." He still has one in his office: "a 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar bill. Would not buy a loaf of bread."
The dollar followed the same path. From 1776 to 1913 it stayed worth a dollar. "But then from 1913 to today, a dollar is worth about two and a half cents."
His conclusion for Bitcoin: "So that devaluation, again, is why we Bitcoin, because one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Bitcoin never changes. The Bitcoin I have has never changed. What changes is the amount of paper, toilet paper currency that people will exchange for it."
Thanks to Mark Yusko for coming on @new_era_finance
Mark Yusko ran institutional money for decades. @MarkYusko his #Bitcoin math is the calmest bullish case you'll hear this month:
"I think Bitcoin, you know, it's coming up on two trillion dollars again. I think super easily it's a $15 trillion asset."
Not a moonboy number. A fair value model built on Metcalfe's law, network value scaling with users, from the CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital. And he's equally clear about the timeline: getting there takes 5 to 10 years, through a slow "crypto spring" before "crypto summer", with the fast move only coming after the next halving.
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show!
The monetary backdrop is what carries the thesis:
- $10 trillion issued in the last 5 years, as much as in the first 245 years of the United States
- Inflation quietly taking 50% of your purchasing power over 30 years
- And governments, in his view, about to become Bitcoin holders themselves
We cover:
- His Metcalfe-based fair value model, and why price sits below it
- Lessons from Japan, the Great Depression parallel, and the K-shaped economy
- Why scarcity wins every currency debate in history
- The honest part most bulls skip: why returns shrink as Bitcoin gets bigger
- Bitcoin's role in the future financial system
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Is Bitcoin Out Of The Woods?
03:50 - Accumulation And Bull Markets
07:10 - Lessons From Japan
09:57 - The Great Depression Parallel
12:58 - The K-Shaped Economy
15:48 - Lessons From Currency History
19:11 - Why Scarcity Wins
22:11 - Risks To The Financial System
29:16 - Inflation And Investing
35:18 - Bitcoin Market Cycles
41:45 - Diminishing Returns
47:35 - Bitcoin In The Future Economy
53:41 - Future Financial Infrastructure
Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"The US is in the same place that Japan was a decade ago."
Mark Yusko says Japan is the leading indicator. Demographically, it is "eleven years ahead of the US and 10 years ahead of Europe". The Bank of Japan owns about 70% of Japanese government bonds, and Japan sits at 265% debt to GDP, with the US "well over 100".
So what happens when nobody wants to buy your bonds?
"You kind of look around and say, well, then I'll just do it." According to Mark, that is not new: "This is exactly what happened in the 1930s. We were an emerging market run by a gang. And what did we do? We invented QE."
He is careful with his conclusion: "Now I'm not saying we're going to have any of those things. Hopefully, they don't mismanage it as badly as they did back then."
Then he turns to inequality. "We just set the new record for income and wealth inequality. The last previous peak? 1929." And his view on history: every empire sees the same thing, "a very small number of people become increasingly powerful."
Thanks to @MarkYusko for coming on @new_era_finance
Mark Yusko ran institutional money for decades. @MarkYusko his #Bitcoin math is the calmest bullish case you'll hear this month:
"I think Bitcoin, you know, it's coming up on two trillion dollars again. I think super easily it's a $15 trillion asset."
Not a moonboy number. A fair value model built on Metcalfe's law, network value scaling with users, from the CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital. And he's equally clear about the timeline: getting there takes 5 to 10 years, through a slow "crypto spring" before "crypto summer", with the fast move only coming after the next halving.
Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show!
The monetary backdrop is what carries the thesis:
- $10 trillion issued in the last 5 years, as much as in the first 245 years of the United States
- Inflation quietly taking 50% of your purchasing power over 30 years
- And governments, in his view, about to become Bitcoin holders themselves
We cover:
- His Metcalfe-based fair value model, and why price sits below it
- Lessons from Japan, the Great Depression parallel, and the K-shaped economy
- Why scarcity wins every currency debate in history
- The honest part most bulls skip: why returns shrink as Bitcoin gets bigger
- Bitcoin's role in the future financial system
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Is Bitcoin Out Of The Woods?
03:50 - Accumulation And Bull Markets
07:10 - Lessons From Japan
09:57 - The Great Depression Parallel
12:58 - The K-Shaped Economy
15:48 - Lessons From Currency History
19:11 - Why Scarcity Wins
22:11 - Risks To The Financial System
29:16 - Inflation And Investing
35:18 - Bitcoin Market Cycles
41:45 - Diminishing Returns
47:35 - Bitcoin In The Future Economy
53:41 - Future Financial Infrastructure