I trade stonks and bryptos // Tweets are not financial advice.
The Blockchain
Joined February 2018
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𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$IREN's Most Likely Partner for SW1: OpenAI
For a site as large as SW1, the fastest path to monetization would be partner and use cashflow to continue to expand it’s full owned CSP when Vera Rubins come out in 2027 on SW2 and future sites/expansions that @FransBakker9812 is finding clues for such as (2). @litigious_dulce explains the insane economics Vera Rubins and how Blackwells economics will pale in comparison (3) so it’s important for IREN to time their self-bought chips for Vera Rubins. I will explain why IREN-OpenAI makes sense for both parties.
OpenAI:
The first key fact is that a critical part of DeepSeek’s breakthrough was their direct use of PTX bypassing some CUDA functions. The second piece of the puzzle is AMD’s hardware benchmarks always look great but their interface layer, ROCm, is far inferior to CUDA for full utilization of the hardware. Now if DeepSeek is able to write custom PTX, OpenAI can modify/customize ROCm to create an optimized version for their inference. For OpenAI, this will save them a fortune over Nvidia GPUs for inference where horizontal scaling makes sense, and it’s evident why OpenAI announced to buy 6GW of Instinct GPUs starting with 1GW in H2 2026.
No power constrained neocloud $CRWV, $NBIS could take the risk to buy that many AMD GPUs and tie up all their power. $NBIS doesn’t even have close to 1GW much less 6GW. Heck even, AMD knows that OpenAI is basically the only customer in 2026 at this scale and is willing to give up to 10% of their company to AMD if the whole 6GW of their GPUs is eventually purchased. OpenAI will need a Neocloud to deploy the 1GW in H2 2026. Even if NBIS does managed some how manage to pull off 1GW from somewhere, signing it entirely away would mean giving up their PaaS aspirations. Although there are are candidates like 5C group, IREN is a front-runner due to SW1’s proximity to OpenAI’s $ORCL sites in Abilene. OpenAI’s job post show no hiring for IaaS operations and even if they did, they would in house the GB300s first. OpenAI is signing deals with Coreweave on higher margin GB300s and would in house the operations of GB300s before in housing the operations of Instinct GPUs. IREN is a perfect candidate for OpenAI to provide the GPUs and have IREN operate them.
IREN:
How would the economic look like in relation to other known deals? We know that the top-line ARR for NBIS/MSFT deal is 11.6m/MW-yr (17.4B/300MW/5yrs). However after accounting cost of GPU, switches, $CRDO cables, DataOne colocation, NBIS is looking at a profit estimate of ~4.832m/MW-yr which is still fantastic. IREN profit estimate is 7.232m/MW-yr of profit for its self owned GB300s (1). However to have the asset/cashflow leverage to quickly build out B200/B300/GB300 and eventually Vera Rubins for it’s Canadian Sites (160MW) + Childress (up to 750MW) + SW2 (600MW) while maximizing it’s fleet composition Vera Rubins in 2027, it makes sense to do a hybrid Colo/IaaS partnership with OpenAI. There’s not much figures for this, but a rough ball park would be 2.5m/MW-yr to 4m/MW-yr. For a 5 year deal, this would be 17.5B - 28B. Unlike $NBIS who is paying for GPUs and Colocation with DataOne, this would be mostly profit for IREN.
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$IREN - great quarter, raking in cash as guided. Earned about $81m cash profits from mining -- far ahead of any other miner. All-in cash hashcost coming in at $22.86, which is just insanely good, and true to their guidance. Easily the best at pureplay mining right now.
Costs are clearly under control. Won't speak to HPC prospects, but those renderings look great.
Here are the numbers as I have them. Total cash hashcost ~$23, $/KWH numbers are great as well.
For comparison, here is $CLSK. Also a great operator, probably in 2nd place (haven't crunched all the miners' numbers yet). ~$33 hashcost -- commendable, but $IREN's lower J/TH fleet, and lower costs on a $/KWH, make $IREN the winner this Q.
And here's what a struggling miner looks like ($43 hashcost, high $/KWHs):
Note that $MARA's "direct" cost includes hosting fees, which constitute ~45% of their BTC mining. Actual figures would be lower, but they'd presumably see an increase in SG&A as they move from hosting to O&O. So just look at "total".
If you'd like to get an idea of how all the miners would stack up if they all had the same fleet, just look at $/KWH numbers.
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Back to $IREN, I like this nice touch where they no longer apply an "AI deduction" to guided hashcost. Thank you!
Only soft point was they sold 10m shares in Q1. Not ideal conditions to be selling, given share price at the time.
Best in class mining.. now all eyes are on HPC.
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$TMDX continues to have a very strong Q1 with flight volumes up 21% QoQ.
I also updated my spreadsheet today and we're at 26.0 flights per day (in March) with just 2.5 days left in the month/quarter.
This means $TMDX should do approximately 2,130 flights in Q1 which is 21% above Q4 flight volumes.
There are several other data points and variables we can't track but it certainly looks like $TMDX is headed for a monster Q1 earnings report, perhaps a 15-20% beat above current street estimates which now stand at $123.4M
Q4 revenues per flight was $69,220 and if you apply that to Q1 flight volumes it gives us $147.4M which would be a 19.5% beat above street estimates.
Unfortunately we can't track exactly what % of Q1 flights is internal (company owned planes) vs external (chartered planes) so my math above assumes that % stayed constant from Q4. Obviously if it changed in a meaningful way we won't know until they report earnings. If that % did change, I doubt it was by more than 5% in either direction.
If $TMDX does indeed report $140-150M in Q1, I would expect them to raise full year revenue guidance from 20-25% to 25-30% which means at the midpoint we're talking about $563M which means the stock is trading at 4.4x NTM EV/SALES which is simply too cheap in the medtech sector when they already have 20% EBITDA margins.
Personally I think $TMDX does at least 30-35% growth in CY2025 with EBITDA margins in the 20-22% range in which case $TMDX is trading at exactly 20x NTM EBITDA which is also too cheap for a company growing EBITDA at ~40% for the next few years as they launch OCS 2.0 and KidneyOCS plus increase efficiencies with their 21+ planes.
$TMDX had a record breaking day yesterday with 19 out of 21 planes flying all over totaling 36 flights in 24 hours!! Q1 is heading to landslide!!
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
West Texas is quickly becoming the new data center capital of the world, and $IREN is growing with it.
We're set to deliver a 75MW liquid-cooled AI data center in the coming months, while the 2GW Sweetwater Data Center Hub, near the Stargate project in Abilene, is progressing well - with the first 1.4GW coming online in April next year.
datacenterdynamics.com/en/ne…
@OpenAI @sama @Oracle @larryellison @SoftBank
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$TMDX 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
30% increase in flight data than November and 8% compared to December.
$TMDX - 36 flights in a day!! last 4 days run rate 28. Projected Month 725!! That is almost 7% increase MoM. Looking forward to Q1 Guidance!!
*Note - New plane acquired in mid Jan has probably started operations!! highlighting it with yellow as we wait for confirmation.
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$TMDX 🚀 Only a day left in 2024, but December flight numbers have already showed incredibly strong fleet utilization so far at 675 flights as of this morning (see chart below). I'll provide an update again tomorrow for the full month, and I expect the final numbers to be very closed to 700.
This impressive fleet utilization will contribute to either revenue growth or improved margins. Q4 earnings are shaping up to be exceptional compared to Q3, which now clearly appears to be a blip which also aligned with the lower flight numbers during that period.
Here’s my prediction for $TMDX Q4 earnings:
Revenue: With a conservative estimate of 15% QoQ revenue growth (or 9% vs. Q2/24), despite a 27% growth in flight volume, $TMDX should easily reach the high end of its prior full-year guidance ($445M) or even higher.
EBITDA: margin could approach or exceed 20%, driven by significantly higher utilization compared to the previous quarters.
This sets up Q4 to be an all-time high in both Revenue and EBITDA. 🌟
#NFA
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
TransMedics Group $TMDX is down over 30% in a singular day and I believe this is a buying opportunity for the long run.
Here is what the company does, and why I believe there is opportunity for this company to be a ten-bagger at the bare minimum. (Thread 🧵)
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
Reminder. Don’t get it twisted. We’re in an absurdly bullish macro environment and have been for months
The thing that people are gonna fuck up now is move the goal posts and say this is bad because less cuts. Nope.
Fed will still cut in November but less panicky and more likely 25
We’re in a good news is good news regime cause inflation has moderated and fears of recession took hold. Now broad market will be less concerned about one. That’s bullish
Fed is cutting into resilient economy. As I’ve said since I believe there’s no recession I think it’s turbo bullish
Don’t get it twisted yo!
𝐑 𝐀 𝐒 𝐂 𝐀 𝐋 retweeted
$SOFI should be trading around $13.09-$19.04 today based on their forward guidance.
First a tiny bit of background. A PEG ratio takes the P/E ratio and divides it by the company’s earnings per share (EPS) growth rate. For example, if a company has a P/E of 15 and is growing their EPS at a rate of 10%, their PEG would be 15 / 10 = 1.5. The average PEG across the market is around 1.5.
SoFi’s guidance is for $0.55-$0.80 in 2026. That means over the next several years, we’re looking at triple digit EPS growth, so PEG makes no sense to use right now unless that is sustainable. Triple digit growth is not sustainable. However, they’ve also said they expect 20-25% growth every year thereafter. In fact, CEO Anthony Noto is on the record saying they want to grow the business at 20% for decades. Not for 5 years or 10 years, but for decades.
Let’s assume that they are going to hit that guidance and assume 22.5% forward growth for 2027 and apply a PEG of 1.5 to their 2026 EPS.
The EPS range is $0.55-$0.80 in 2026, so that corresponds to a price of $18.56-$27.00 in 2026. There is obviously risk involved that they do not, in fact, hit that guidance, so we need to discount that back to today to price in that risk. Being very conservative and using a 15% discount rate for two-and-a-half years means that if you believe that guidance, the stock would be fairly valued today at a range from $13.09-$19.04.
By every valuation metric I have looked at, SoFi deserves to be trading around double what it is today at a minimum.