At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero. $IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations. At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless. Looking ahead: - Sweetwater 100% contracted - With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR - ARR Multiple 4x (conservative) - Implied Value $34B - Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal) So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.

Let’s face it. $iREN’s Microsoft contract was just okay to almost bad. They needed that contract since they were the new kid in the Neocloud sector. Now that they are executing on that contract they have learned so much and shown they can do it. This was the bear case. If they sign the 2027 capacity at the microsoft contract terms then it is over. Everything points to much better terms. $20/mw and 50% prepayments. This reduces the dilution needed. This will change the whole narrative and start the next up trend. The ER next week might be the turning point. We chop here until the ER is my guess. Then the market decides, continued mark down, consolidation or uptrend. Any short-term bounce needs to hold or retest on light volume. They signed the microsoft contract 12 months in advance so we are in the sweet spot for a new deal to be announced for the second half of 2027 liquid cooled capacity they are bringing online at Sweetwater. This is my opinion on where we stand.

Why shouldn’t $IREN get 100% of the CAPEX for the 2027 capacity as a prepayment? If demand is so high as Musk says, then if someone really wants/needs compute, they need to pony up. $IREN adds value with the grid-connected greenfield sites, the construction team, NVDA partnership, and lessons learned from the Microsoft contract. I think they could do this, but there would be a trade-off on $/MW. If there is a credit squeeze, the markets will find a way. The next deal they announce will destroy the bear case. Will it be around the ER? Dan Roberts looked very excited in the last interview. Those who follow him know that look. 🚀

$IREN's uptick rule kicked in and we bounce. I really believe the only sellers are shorts and day traders at this point. Why would a real investor sell here?

$IREN investors are being played by Citadel. The whole AI sector sell-off is perpetuated by “what ifs”. 3 years from now, blah blah blah. 3 years ago, ChatGPT 2 was hallucinating and was barely useful at all. Pessimists are winning this round.

$IREN is about to double to $60. This is just how it trades. Anyone who has been following it for the last 3 years and longer knows this.