Meteorologist/Manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre @ECCC_CHC | Tropical cyclone (hurricane) and many weather related topics | postings are own not employer
Dartmouth, NS, Canada
Joined January 2024
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Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
A colleague and I walked across from AOML to RSMAS to see where the water was relative to these high water marks. Just a little bit below Irma from a non-tropical event. Of course, if Irma had taken the original track up Biscayne Bay, it would have blown all of these away.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
TC Info Statement from CHC on Subtropical Storm Josephine: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/stat….
Mainly a marine hazard, with hurricane-force winds likely on its backside as it transitions to post-tropical. Will also help fuel a feed of moisture and gusty conditions into parts of Nfld. #nlwx
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
🌀Hurricane Isaias Damage Analysis (1/4)
NWS Mobile continues to investigate an extreme corridor of damaging winds WEST of Isaias' center. This radar/velocity loop shows intense winds, with deeper blues/greens indicating higher wind speeds, possibly associated with a "sting jet"
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
We really don't often get to see the inner dynamics of pinhole eyes on radar, especially in the Western Pacific basin, so it's remarkable to watch the eye pass just to the south of #Guam and see the various eyewall mesovortices and other features.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Here's a preliminary look at peak wind gusts observed in association with the landfall of Hurricane #Isaias on Friday night. Multiple gusts topping 100 mph were recorded from Santa Rosa Island through the Pensacola area and northward.
You might note that the strongest winds were on the west side of the track -- not what we typically expect. This appears to be associated with the formation of something meteorologists refer to as a 'sting jet.' Isaias was in the process of transitioning from a tropical low to an extratropical low at landfall, and these sting jets are often associated with extratropical systems.
If you rode the storm out in the Panhandle and have any updates and/or pictures, please share them here. Wishing the best for everyone over there as the recovery process gets underway. @WAFB
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
16 hours and counting of continuous coverage of Hurricane Isaias from hurricane hunters.
4 flights (2 NOAA, 2 US Air Force) provided frequent data on the storm’s structure to help forecasters predict the expected hazards tonight & tomorrow.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Starting to see the signal for Gulf development wane a little bit. Down to 30% on Google DeepMind (was 40% a day or so ago). If shear proves to be too much for this system, I think that probably closes the book on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (that never really got started to be honest).
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Tropical Storm #Fay Advisory 5 (3 PM GMT, Sun Sep 20): Tropical Storm Fay Strengthens as it Moves Towards the Northeast. hurricanes.gov
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Today is September 10 - the climatological peak of Atlantic #hurricane season. In 2026, the Atlantic has generated the least Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of any season through Sept. 10 since 1950. ACE is an integrated metric accounting for storm intensity & duration.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
A hurricane that never made landfall buried cars on a Long Beach street, California.
Marie is hundreds of miles offshore. The swell is not.
Water and sand came over the berm, filled Peninsula garages, and left vehicles half under the beach.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Hurricane Lowell remains right of track of the latest NHC forecast — even following adjustments of the forecast track to the east with each update.
Landfall in Hawaii is *not* expected, but these trends have prompted a hurricane warning in western Hawaii for significant impacts.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Western tropical Atlantic/Caribbean (10-20°N, 85-50°W) vertical wind shear continues to shatter previous records, with average shear in the western Atlantic for the past 30 days >3 kt stronger than any other year in the global satellite era (since 1979). #ElNino
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Checking back in on Hurricane Marie... and turns out it wasn't a good idea sparking excessive premature hype about a supposed hurricane on track to hit California based off a couple of deterministic GFS runs that were never a consensus solution to begin with.
Chris Fogarty, PhD retweeted
Whoa! Check out this time-lapse from an Toronto, #Ontario Live Cam moments ago as a #SevereThunderstorm moved through. #onstorm #onwx
