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St Cloud, MN
Joined December 2021
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d10 retweeted
something fundamentally broke in the market this week, things aren't adding up:
- elon is winding down grok bot due to poor ROI despite having lots of available compute + demand
- Sam altman reportedly slashed openai's valuation to $1.25T and cut the fundraise from $30 to $20B
- anthropic's operating profit has now flipped negative due to massive compute bills despite overwhelming demand for their models.
- Lumentum sold to Marvell despite having sold out its product till 2029 on record profits...
- Intel is down a staggering 42% in 4 days despite supplying the #1 hardware needed to run ai agents
- lenders are refusing to let neoclouds borrow money. if they do they're at extortionate rates.
- every single company reporting record positive earnings has dumped (including Apple today)
$3.46 TRILLION has been wiped out from AI stocks in October.
1. Intel: -43.4%
2. Coreweave: -37.7%
3. Nebius: -36.7%
4. SanDisk: -33.4%
5. Seagate: -30%
6. Marvell: -25.8%
7. Dell: -22.3%
8. SKHY: -19.8%
9. WDC: -19.2%
10. Google: -18.7%
11. Micron: -17.8%
12. AMD: -17.2%
13. Meta: -15.8%
14. TSMC: -11%
15. NVDA: -10.7%
16. SpaceX: -9.4%
17. Broadcom: -8.6%
18. Oracle: -4.3%
d10 retweeted
The Intel situation is insane.
Intel, $INTC, is now down another -6% today after falling -29% on Friday in its biggest decline since 1971.
This puts the stock down -57% from its record high seen just 86 trading days ago.
That's -$440 billion of market cap.
But, it gets better.
Despite this historic reversal, the stock is STILL up +58% this year.
What a time to be an investor.
d10 retweeted
What's happening now in the stock market is more than just a "correction in tech stocks."
Sure, AI CapEx concerns are legitimate and investors will always care about profitability.
But, there's more beneath the surface here.
The reality is that the market is pricing-in a major shift in the political landscape of the US.
Over the last 12 months, market expectations for a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections have tripled.
Over the last 45 days alone, these expectations are up +30 percentage points.
As it stands, markets themselves now see a near-80% chance of a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections.
President Trump has already vowed to become "Mr. Veto" if this in fact does happen.
This is post is not political, it's objective. A change in the political landscape always comes with uncertainty; markets hate uncertainty.
Objectively, the market is in the process of pricing-in two years of political gridlock.
Could this change? Of course. But markets price-in the most probable outcome, and the odds now overwhelmingly favor the aforementioned scenario.
Tomorrow sets the stage for the next two years.
d10 retweeted
$3.46 TRILLION has been wiped out from AI stocks in October.
1. Intel: -43.4%
2. Coreweave: -37.7%
3. Nebius: -36.7%
4. SanDisk: -33.4%
5. Seagate: -30%
6. Marvell: -25.8%
7. Dell: -22.3%
8. SKHY: -19.8%
9. WDC: -19.2%
10. Google: -18.7%
11. Micron: -17.8%
12. AMD: -17.2%
13. Meta: -15.8%
14. TSMC: -11%
15. NVDA: -10.7%
16. SpaceX: -9.4%
17. Broadcom: -8.6%
18. Oracle: -4.3%
d10 retweeted
BREAKING: The "AI Big 10" now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap.
This includes Magnificent 7 stocks as well as Broadcom, $AVGO, AMD, $AMD, and Micron, $MU.
This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low.
By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) sector peaked at 41%, while the Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% in the 1970s.
Furthermore, Japan’s equity market bubble in the 1980s peaked at 44%.
In the past, only railroad stocks have significantly exceeded this concentration, accounting for 63% of US market cap at their highest point in the 1900s.
The dominance of Big Tech is extraordinary.
d10 retweeted
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d10 retweeted
BREAKING: Venezuela's Cardon Oil refinery, the country's second largest at 310,000 barrels per day, has just unexpectedly exploded and caught fire, forcing a full shutdown.
The fire started at a gas line connecting the refinery's diesel hydrotreater and halted the whole plant, including the boilers, eight sources told Reuters.
d10 retweeted
BREAKING: Ukraine has just struck an oil tanker, which is now burning off the coast of Sochi in Russia's Krasnodar region, with a massive fire and a black smoke column rising several kilometres.
d10 retweeted
They say this meter is broken.
Buuuuuut if you bought every time it was at Fear and especially at Extreme Fear you would have made profit.
So no, it’s not broken (at least use it as a contra if anything). Nutty, but not broken.
d10 retweeted
BREAKING:
Russian lab worker dies of unknown virus as hundreds of people are placed in quarantine, with several hospitals shut down.
