D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
$ROL Rollins is getting a lot of attention after hitting a 52-week low. We haven't analyzed the business, though we know it's high quality.
Our back-of-the-envelope valuation is something like this. If we acquired the entire business, we'd have to pay $14.6b + $1b in net debt.
LTM FCF was $620m, implying a c.4% yield. The business grows at mid to high single digits and is quite resilient, so we'd expect it to continue to exist 10 years from today.
Assuming a 6/7% annual growth rate in FCF and a 1% buyback yield, that's about a 7% FCF/share growth rate, which is roughly a double in 10 years, so $1.24b by year 10, equating to an 8.5% yield.
At 20x to 24x FCF, its market cap. would be around $25b to $30b. From the current capitalization, it would be an annual compound rate of 5.5% to 7.5%, plus dividends.
For a 15% compound rate, the exit multiple would have to be 48x FCF.
We are most definitely missing the core of the thesis. Again, we haven't done any reasonably decent DD.
Unless there's a reacceleration in growth and buybacks of which we're unaware, at least at first sight, the business does not seem to be screaming bargain.
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 23
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@finphysnerd
@310Value
@DRGInvests
@EarningsB4Hugs
@dirtcheapstocks
@KylerJohnson411
@konichivalue
@felix__archive
@Valuedontlie
@TPC608839840907
@Delta9Echo
@qualityequities
+more!
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Need a @ChrisBloomstran take on Berkshire funding $GOOG capex and buying it at ATHs
Wow, Berkshire Hathaway investing $10 billion into $GOOGL in a private placement as part of a broader $80 billion equity capital raise by the company to expand its AI infrastructure
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Food and Bev is quietly one of the top-performing industries over the last 3 months (up ~11%)
Here are some recent notes on stocks in the industry:
- $GO
- $CELH update by @Govro12
- $KHC by @AlphaTalon2025
- $NOMD by @DRGinvests
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
ARK Invest published its 2021 “research” report on Tesla, thoughtfully estimating metrics on where the car company would be in five years. The results are in. Turns out Cathie & Co were just a tad bit optimistic in their forecasting skill. That was sarcasm. The scorecard: 1/
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
At the low today $CSU.to was 13x 2026 fcf
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Constellation should be able to withstand the AI threat to software stocks theglobeandmail.com/investin…
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 3
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups and articles from:
@DRGInvests
@Delta9Echo
@WolfOfOakville
@capytalmgmt
@DutchInvestors
@finphysnerd
@SFarringtonBKC
@CapitalVoss
@dede_eyesan
@DeepValueStonks
@AmsterdamStocks
+more!
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Added 65 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@karanshah137 - $ROLEXRINGS.NS (overview)
@1rabbitresearch - $MU (analyst)
@DRGinvests - $FND
@Anders_Research - $TRAW
2Agrippa_Inv - $IREN
@wisemancap - $NOW (analyst)
fund letters
and more...
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Imho there are small pockets of attractive price to value in the market, but overall the market still feels unattractive right now. People joke about Michael Burry when he says he does not understand the market, yet what he really means is that he cannot find value at prices that make sense. That is not unreasonable, it is common sense, and it takes real courage to step aside when you’re making a lot of money while everyone else is excited.
There are plenty of great businesses today with strong economics, real competitive advantages, talented management, and clean balance sheets. The issue is not the quality of these companies, the issue is the price you are being asked to pay. When you look at names like $NET, $PLTR, $CRWD, $SHOP, and others, the businesses might be excellent, but the valuations are stretched far beyond what the fundamentals can justify. Trees do not grow to the sky, and even perfect narratives eventually reconnect with reality.
When prices drift away from value, two outcomes usually show up, you either get a major drawdown of 50-80%, which we just saw with $DUOL, or the stock trades sideways for years while the fundamentals catch up. Neither outcome is unusual and both are simply the result of markets ignoring valuation for too long.
The emotional part is what makes this so difficult. People become attached to the companies they admire, and they take any mention of valuation risk as a criticism of the business itself. A company can be outstanding while the stock is still a bad investment.
Price and quality are separate questions. History proves this when you remember that $MSFT, one of the greatest businesses ever built, traded sideways for fourteen years, and $CSCO only yesterday returned to its dot com high after twenty five years.
This is why patience and value matter, and why even the best companies in the world can disappoint investors when the starting point is wrong. I will be writing about this in much more detail in my upcoming book, and I hope all of you will take the time to read it.
🌹
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Lessons from the Titans is about what new companies can learn from industrial giants.
Book summary with some very practical and industry-specific ideas:
General Electric (Jack Welch):
- "Fix it, close it, or sell it"
- Cut layers of management and push decision-making down through the organization.
- Those who missed numbers were fired; those who exceeded them were rewarded.
- 2 bets based on selling at low margin, but embedding a service business throughout product lifecycle.
- Got into financial services, led to trouble.
- Pressure managers too much and they won't have time to think about the future.
Boeing:
- Nobody in the company cared about financials and people thought the goal was engineering, not making a profit as well.
- Pushed technology development much further than customers were willing to pay for.
- Crisis management is best done in advance.
Danaher (Larry Culp):
- 60k employees -- 100 at headquarters.
- If an asset no longer fits in LT plans, they find a better owner, even if asset is still growing.
- DBS is a set of constantly updated best practices that functions as a playbook for all employees. It provides day-to-day structure, with clear definitions of what matters and how it will be measured.
- Lean manufacturing works best in companies with steady growth, neither high nor low.
- Getting avg employee to perform a bit better is more impactful than focusing on "stars."
- 30-min presentations while standing.
- Talent development is mandatory.
Honeywell (Dave Cote):
- Incentivize for continuous improvement.
- Value can come from cash tied in working cap
- Make money for all stakeholders.
- Don't fire-sale assets, wait for right price.
- Study of all past deals to find out what worked, what didn't, and why.
- "What you think, what you say, and what you do shouldn't be different"
United Technologies:
- "People do what you pay them to do"
- Best incentive systems are not static.
- Careful with targets (i.e 10% EPS growth)
Caterpillar:
- Market share losses hurt equipment sales one year, and then hurt aftermarket sales for 15 yrs.
- Cat didn't invest enough in a robust production system.
- Clients might take advantage of you if you overbuild inventory.
Roper (Brian Jellison):
- Simple acquisition model, singular management philosophy, and one-variable compensation scheme.
- No ads budget or PR campaign.
- Identify market mispricing around narratives.
- 50 people at headquarters.
- Never incentivized for market share so that people didn't push for bad contracts.
Transdigm:
- "It's a collection of acquired aerospace monopolies with outsized pricing power.
- Often relocates acquiree's manufacturing to saved fab space from productivity efforts.
- Abandoning high-margin, high-return product when it stops growing might be a bad idea.
Stanley Black & Decker:
- Managers 'guessed' overall demand, instead of planning carefully for each product. Led to too much waste and error.
- Incentive changes, bonus if fill rate was met.
United Rentals:
- Optimize all assets in the network.
- You can still make a profit in competitive mkts
- Two changes in compensation:
a) From compensating growing EBITDA to "return on controllable assets."
b) Focus on district rather than branch results.
- You've no idea how much more efficient you can be: Company that can run a truck on 15 routes a day > 5 routes a day.
- To clients: "Hey, you don't seem to need this. Let us come pick it up and save you the cost."
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 32
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@SanjHA3
@oguzerkan
@asiatechreview
@UnlearningCFA
@sixsigmaCaptal
@DRGInvests
@maiuspartners
@nwfcapital
@ReturnsJourney
@konichivalue
@Gracemzshao
@Quality_stocksA
@hiroki1379
+more!
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Good read from John Rotonti @JRogrow on ROTIC (return on tangible invested capital) and considerations on handling goodwill with acquisitive companies.
lastbastion.com/2025/07/08/j…
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Is U.K. sausage roll king Greggs getting interesting?
Revenue (5-year CAGR): 11.5%
Diluted EPS (5-year CAGR): 11.9%
ROIC (5-year average): 17.3%
The stock trades at 11.5x trailing earnings
$GRG.L
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 26
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@k_ristovski
@RihardJarc
@dirtcheapstocks
@Compoundandfire
@Valuedontlie
@DRGInvests
@konichivalue
@Noahpinion
@theintlinvestor
@Invesquotes
@rebound_capital
@KrokerEquity
+more!
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 24
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@asiatechreview
@finphysnerd
@DRGInvests
@WolfOfOakville
@Valuedontlie
@CayucosCapital
@Delta9Echo
@theintlinvestor
@Compoundandfire
@ReneSellmann
@Gracemzshao
@KrokerEquity
+more!
D invests 🏴 🦥 retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 23
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@milehighmonk
@Compoundandfire
@stwboerse
@ReneSellmann
@Gracemzshao
@Quality_stocksA
@ToddWenning
@leomironov
@KrokerEquity
+more!






























