Forskningsledare för Facken inom industrins produktivitetskommission. I samarbete med @arenaide. RT innebär inte samsyn. [email protected]

Joined October 2015
Webbinarium med Dani Rodrik. 22 okt kl 15-16. Mer info och anmälan: 👇👇 Välkommen! arenaide.se/kalender/shared-…
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Daniel Lind retweeted
It’s getting worse and worse. New study shows experts completely surrender their judgments to AI, and they don’t even realise it. Fifty professional analysts used Claude Code to analyse data and advise a fictional farming cooperative. They faced four analytical decisions, followed by a final policy recommendation. Unknown to them, AI advice was experimentally manipulated to lean towards opposite directions. The results are disturbing. Across the four analytical decisions, experts chose the AI’s preferred option 86% of the time. Afterwards, half of the experts rated the final recommendation as more their own than the AI’s, and only 15% mentioned the AI in any explanation. Epistemia is reaching the experts: we risk outsourcing judgment while preserving the illusion of intellectual independence. What could possibly go wrong? * Paper in the first reply
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Daniel Lind retweeted
Individuals from lower socioeconomic classes are less politically engaged than high-SES individuals. Surveys from 47 countries (N = 70,417) across various domains (e.g., voting, boycotting) reveals that this gap is partly due to lower political efficacy. The perceived ability to influence political affairs is lower among low-SES individuals. However, promoting feelings of political efficacy can boost political participation among low-SES individuals. sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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"Innovators from more affluent backgrounds cater to richer consumers" This is one of the reasons why representation among innovators & researchers by socioeconomic background matters. Background shapes questions, tastes, ideas, and motivations of which problems to address.
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Food for thought! "Industrial policy in times of market power" by Domenico Delli Gatti, Roberta Terranova, and Enrico Maria Turco. "We explore the effects of different industrial policies in a macroeconomic agent-based model calibrated to reproduce the decline in US business dynamism over the last half-century. R&D subsidies to innovators raise GDP growth but exacerbate the trend toward rising market power, while financial subsidies to adopters and standard capital-replacement schemes have negligible aggregate effects. A meaningful reversal of market power emerges only when innovation support is paired with adoption-oriented measures that relax the knowledge constraints of small adopters, e.g. the establishment of a National Competence Center providing technology transfer and knowledge upgrading. The effectiveness of each policy is dependent on the underlying technological regime: the growth–dynamism trade-off is sharpest in science-based regimes and attenuated in scale-intensive and supplier-dominated ones." sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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econvitals is an amazing new resource. On the one hand, it shows the power of AI, when well domesticated (by Jason). On the other, it produces incredibly useful stuff. A definitive follow.
Unusually, the Fed’s real policy rate is among the highest of major central banks. One plausible reason is stronger U.S. growth: the New York Fed puts the neutral real rate at 1.0 percent in the United States, 0.1 percent in the euro area. econvitals.org
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Can AI conduct qualitative interviews with thousands of people? In a new REStud paper, Friedrich Geiecke and @XJaravel develop an open-source approach that combines the depth of qualitative interviews with the scale of surveys. 1/6
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Very valuable! "The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets" by Tito Boeri and Jan van Ours. link.amazon/B0fqyzmKg "The leading textbook on imperfect labor markets and the institutions that affect them: Today's labor markets are witnessing seismic changes brought on by such factors as rising self-employment, temporary employment, zero-hour contracts, and the growth of the sharing economy. This fully updated and revised third edition of The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets reflects these and other critical changes in imperfect labor markets, and it has been significantly expanded to discuss topics such as workplace safety, regulations on self-employment, and disability and absence from work. Authoritative and accessible, this textbook examines the many institutions that affect the behavior of workers and employers in imperfect labor markets. These include minimum wages, employment protection legislation, unemployment benefits, family policies, equal opportunity legislation, collective bargaining, early retirement programs, and education and migration policies. Written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students, the book carefully defines and measures these institutions to accurately characterize their effects, and discusses how these institutions are being transformed today." Olivier Blanchard: "Understanding the role of labor market institutions is a difficult but central task. Good institutions can alleviate the adverse effects of the many imperfections that characterize labor markets. But unfortunately bad institutions can, and often do, make things worse. By relying on simple theory and an accumulating body of careful evidence, this book helps us think straight. An essential read for anybody interested in going beyond clichés and understanding what institutions do and should do." link.amazon/B0fqyzmKg
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Super interesting! "Winners and Losers: Competition, Creative Destruction, and Labor Income Risk" by Brice Green, Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt. "Using U.S. administrative data, we find that technology-driven creative destruction in the product market passes through to worker earnings. The passthrough to incumbent worker earnings is both asymmetric and concentrated: profit drops from rival innovations lead to proportionally greater earnings declines and changes in the likelihood of job destruction than profit gains from their own firm’s innovations, while top workers are significantly more exposed than the average worker. We develop an endogenous-growth model with monopsonistic labor markets and worker heterogeneity that replicates this asymmetry and the distribution of earnings risk. In the model, creative destruction exposes highincome workers to concentrated downside risk while increasing upward mobility for lower-income workers, shaping the welfare consequences of innovation policy." conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
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Daniel Lind retweeted
His father, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led a military rebellion in Russia and marched toward Moscow. Two months later, he died in a plane crash. Here is what he left to his son, Pavel: 500 mercenaries, gold mines, and a business making over $400M a year in Central Africa, WSJ. 1/
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Jason Furman on AI vs human economists: If he were running the CEA today and had a choice between 20 highly qualified staff members “versus the AI systems that we have today, I would somewhat regretfully and sadly choose the AI systems.” axios.com/2026/10/23/ai-econ…
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Daniel Lind retweeted
Dear followers, please see this Substack from @MITshapingwork about my research with Andrea Manera and Pascual Retrepo on the US tax code's bias toward automation. How the US tax code incentivizes companies to replace workers with AI
The US tax system is biased against workers in favor of machines and algorithms, and has become more so in recent years. Our latest Substack post unpacks research from @DAcemogluMIT and co-authors: mitstonecenter.substack.com/…
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Daniel Lind retweeted
”Vår slutsats är att man har urholkat det sociala skyddet ganska rejält lagstiftningsmässigt. Förändringarna har skett över tid i mer eller mindre stora steg oavsett politisk färg på regeringen, säger Ruth Mannelqvist.” dn.se/ekonomi/forskare-varna…
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Daniel Lind retweeted
Had a great time at this event, joint with Steve Machin, talking about The Wage Standard
🚨 Book launch tomorrow 🚨 @arindube will join Ruth Curtice and Stephen Machin to discuss his new book 'The Wage Standard' Tickets are still available here ⬇️ buff.ly/PFFNoZ6
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Very interesting paper
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Daniel Lind retweeted
Noncompetes cover roughly a third or more of US private-sector workers. Advocates argue they encourage innovation. We asked @KateReinmuth of @Stanford and @EmmaJRockall of @IMFNews what the evidence shows. #ResearchHighlight aeaweb.org/innovation-invent…
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An interesting IMF chart illustrating the substantial forecast errors in global GDP growth.
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Billionaires’s extremely low tax rates are fueling oligarchic power in the United States. Look at the wealth held by the richest billionaires relative to what’s produced in a given year in the US—a good measure of the influence their wealth can buy. The economic weight of extreme wealth now far exceeds its Gilded Age peak.
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At Anthropic 85% of all hours worked are already by agents … up from 50% in May and effectively zero in January
This is such a great grounded quantitative (and qualitative) case study of one bleeding edge organization as it adapts to using agents everywhere. Must read if you want a glimpse of the organization of the future. Well done @natewilmers and team! (Loved the UAW reference from the 1950s) anthropic.com/research/emplo…
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Collective deliberation leads to large, depolarizing changes in policy attitudes and large decreases in affective polarization. Deliberation requires that people use good information to “weigh” competing arguments through civil and diverse discussion, enabling them to decide on the merits of arguments. A few hours in these discussions can have dramatic effects. The more extreme people were before deliberation, the more feelings toward members of the other party rose with deliberation. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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