Analytics resource for all things prediction markets, DeFi and crypto
San Francisco, CA
Joined July 2019
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DeFi Rate retweeted
Second Circuit hearing scheduled for Tues, Nov 3 (Election Day!) Joint hearing combining 3 appeals:
-Kalshi CT
-Coinbase CT
-Kalshi NY
There *should* be an audio only stream on YouTube, but audio will be available after on circuit court website.
DeFi Rate retweeted
The CFTC has approved the launch of Coinbase Clearing LLC, our own USDC-native clearinghouse.
Built for 24/7 settlement with USDC collateral, Coinbase Clearing completes our full stack of regulated derivatives infrastructure.
DeFi Rate retweeted
New prediction market headhunting firm:
predictiontalent.com/
DeFi Rate retweeted
JUST IN: Instead of appealing to SCOTUS, @Kalshi has asked the full Ninth Circuit to review ("en banc") its case against Nevada. This comes after Kalshi lost with the appeals panel, which ruled 3-0 that Nevada can regulate the prediction site like gambling.
DeFi Rate retweeted
I often get asked the question:
“Daily newsletter? Is there going to be enough to talk about every day?”
The PM Pulse 038 puts that to rest – it includes 15+ independent material updates in the prediction market industry from the last 24 hours.
Every important update you need to know, with the primary source linked to each topic. Zero fluff.
That’s the thesis behind The PM Pulse: provide you with the most important developments in prediction markets in the most efficient way possible. In five minutes or less. Delivered to your inbox at 6:00 AM ET.
I crossed 1,150 subscribers this week. Thank you very much to everyone for the support and thoughtful feedback.
If you find The PM Pulse valuable, please pass it along to others.
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DeFi Rate retweeted
Kalshi Pro Terminal walkthrough is now live on YouTube.
Here are a few of the features covered in the video:
• View multiple order books on a single screen
• Quote combos with an order book (instead of RFQ)
• Ticker tape showing live orders as they come in
• See the share of taker volume on the YES and NO sides (helpful for deciding which side to quote as a maker)
• Instantly see your queue position on all open orders
youtube.com/watch?v=UzQcEwjd…
DeFi Rate retweeted
CFTC is correct here. Can’t just cancel trades made in the past. Each trade has two sides, so either the clearinghouse is stuck with the risk (not how clearinghouses are designed to operate), or the counterparties to the affected trades also have their trade busted?
Two terrible options.
.@CFTC Stays KalshiEX Rule Change and Exercises Emergency Authority to Order Fulfillment of Pending Trades: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
DeFi Rate retweeted
The CFTC's proposal to regulate prediction markets should be out soon.
The White House wrapped up its review of the measure on Friday, according to an update on OIRA's website.
DeFi Rate retweeted
The first crypto perpetual to be launched on a federally regulated exchange has just been approved for @Kalshi to list.
DeFi Rate retweeted
Here is a quick visual on what fees look like between @Kalshi and @RobinhoodApp users (including the new Gold user tier).
Kalshi and Robinhood now use the same fee formula (with different values for the named constants). Robinhood is imposing a fee cap to limit things from becoming more expensive than their original fee structure.
Trading directly on Kalshi is still the cheapest way to be a taker for all Kalshi markets.
Looks like Robinhood just updated their fees on prediction markets.
Lower fees are good for everyone (except maybe $HOOD shareholders)!
DeFi Rate retweeted
DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly-posted CFTC filing that its Market Maker Program will become effective June 8. Virtually all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website.
DeFi Rate retweeted
I’m proud the @CFTC and @NHL signed an MOU, furthering our commitment to improving data sharing between professional sports leagues and the Commission. Together, we’re taking another step toward safeguarding the integrity of sports and protecting market participants in prediction markets from abuses.
Read more⬇️
cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
DeFi Rate retweeted
Just so everyone fully understands what Minnesota’s new bill really means for @Kalshi and @Polymarket, here are some quick points:
1. If you operate a prediction market that offers a contract on elections or the weather, you are committing a felony.
2. If you are offering tech support to a prediction market (payment processors, CRM software, KYC tools, etc.), you are committing a felony.
3. If you place a limit order on a prediction market (setting odds/adjusting pricing), you are committing a felony.
I could come up with an infinitely long list of how terribly written and overbroad this bill is. This goes much further beyond sports betting into completely unreasonable territory, turning basic market participation into felonies.
This bill goes into effect on August 1st, but the CFTC is stepping in to protect their jurisdiction and shut this regulatory overreach down before it does real damage.
If the bill holds up, is it still safe for me to visit my sister in Minnesota?
DeFi Rate retweeted
If this passes, CFTC regulated exchanges will be able to launch perpetual futures on single stock equities.
BREAKING: The SEC is set to release its so-called "innovation exemption" for tokenized stocks which will pave the path for trading digital versions of securities, per Bloomberg.
Details include:
1. In a "surprise move," the SEC is leaning toward allowing the trading of tokenized assets
2. These tokenized assets would be tradeable on decentralized crypto platforms
3. The move could "reshape the landscape of the American stock market"
4. This would also be one of the US' biggest shifts into crypto infrastructure yet
Tokenized assets are rapidly expanding.
DeFi Rate retweeted
🚨JUST IN: The Clarity Act ADVANCES out of the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 bipartisan vote, with two Democrats voting in favor: @SenRubenGallego and @Sen_Alsobrooks.
Next stop: the full Senate.
DeFi Rate retweeted
Today, the Senate Banking Committee will vote to advance the CLARITY Act.
I am proud of the countless hours that my team, Treasury, SEC, CFTC, and Senate Banking staff and members have put into shaping this product. On every issue, we put forward real solutions to address stakeholder concerns or Democrat demands. It often required us to get creative; sometimes, it required us to get uncomfortable. But we did it in the spirit of bipartisanship.
Make no mistake: Whether today’s vote is partisan or bipartisan will depend entirely on politics, not policy. The CLARITY Act is not only good policy, it is necessary policy for the United States to maintain our leadership position in global financial markets. Not to mention the robust consumer protections and anti-illicit finance provisions it contains, without which, there are none.
This morning’s vote will reveal whether Democrats have genuinely moved on from their war on crypto, or whether they remain cowed by Elizabeth Warren. The choice is theirs.
DeFi Rate retweeted
🚨NEW: @BankingGOP Committee markup of the Clarity Act set for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM EST.
🚨SCOOP: The Senate Banking Committee is preparing to notice a markup for the Clarity Act as soon as tomorrow and has circulated draft legislative text to select industry members ahead of a potential Thursday vote, according to multiple industry sources who have seen the text. The language is reportedly still being finalized, with additional edits expected to reflect priorities from Democratic offices.
One source told me the overall vibes after reviewing the bill and coordinating with other industry leaders are positive so far, though some bracketed sections are raising concerns that key provisions previously thought to be settled may still be in flux.