This does include the boundary changes and yes it's Doherty. WB is much better for unionism unionism split 3 ways and imperfect transfers means its not guaranteed. On these numbers the DUP are missing out by 0.2%. That's a tie in my book.

An SF seat in Strangford and another in North Belfast are very close on these numbers and it wouldn't be a surprise if they took at least one of them. Our regional variation button makes them flip sometimes, but they also sometimes drop other seats.

On 3% Independents/Others have had an excellent poll. Depending on how you split that it puts Paul Doherty in with a chance of taking PBP's seat. And the Greens could be coming back, although this isn't as good as some recent polls.

These are excellent numbers for SF and a huge improvement on their pre-Drumcree numbers. It's poor for the SDLP and Alliance with the latter on course to lose half of seats, including Deputy Leader Tennyson

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk poll for the NI Assembly ☘️ SF — 29 🦁 DUP — 20 🔷 UUP — 12 🤝 AP — 9 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 7 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 2

Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.

Its solid for the Tories who are flat, but also for the Lib Dems who could lose a lot of votes but only 2 seats. The Scottish Greens will also be happy with this showing. This is the second Scottish Westminster poll to have Restore winning a decent number of votes.

Our projection on the latest Norstat poll for the next general election in Scotland: 🎗️ SNP — 43 🌳 Con — 5 🔶 LD — 5 🌹 Lab — 4 This is a strong poll for the SNP which would see them take back most of the seats they lost in 2024.

No alternative system would give them a majority, but they are only on 28% of the vote.

There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border. Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.