Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TNsNtbdfq3
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My standard rule is that turnout is usually too low and the race too personalised to use them as a reliable indicator.
There are some exceptions and we have the capacity to add some weightings from bye-elections, but we haven't done so yet.
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
The local council and Assembly elections are scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2027
Voters will receive 1 poll card with their allocated polling place. The Assembly ballot paper will be white, and the local council ballot paper will be yellow
More information from @eoni_official 👇
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.
Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.
Its solid for the Tories who are flat, but also for the Lib Dems who could lose a lot of votes but only 2 seats.
The Scottish Greens will also be happy with this showing.
This is the second Scottish Westminster poll to have Restore winning a decent number of votes.
Our projection on the latest Norstat poll for the next general election in Scotland:
🎗️ SNP — 43
🌳 Con — 5
🔶 LD — 5
🌹 Lab — 4
This is a strong poll for the SNP which would see them take back most of the seats they lost in 2024.
Make your own projection under any electoral system on: devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border.
Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.
Plaid are on course for gains in Wales.
Meanwhile 6 parties and an independent are projected to win at least one seat in Northern Ireland out of 18 as fragmentation of the party system continues across the UK.
After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time.
🌹 Lab — 329
🌳 Con — 126
🔶 LD — 68
➡️ Ref — 48
🎗️ SNP — 46
🌼 PC — 8
☘️ SF — 6
🦁 DUP — 4
🌱 GP — 4
⚪ Others — 11
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Claiming 100% certaintly on a coin flip race would be naive even if they had gotten lucky.
And this is their guess for Ireland on today's numbers.
The whole thing is clickbait nonsense.
🇧🇷 As this election campaign finally comes to an end, we can say with statistical certainty that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) will be elected the next president of the Federative Republic of Brazil tomorrow night. Bolsonaro now officially has a 100% chance of victory, compared to Lula's 0%.
(globalelectionsimulator.com) will update its final projections within the coming hours. At this point, the only uncertainty our team has is the exact margin, not the outcome. The absolute range for Flávio Bolsonaro is 50.5% to 56.2%, while Lula's is 43.8% to 49.5%.
Our final projection update will go live in a moment on the website and here shortly after. A banner will note that the projection has updated, so you will know it is official.
🌐 Global Election Simulator Research Institute
🔗 globalelectionsimulator.com
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Our projection on the latest @REDCResearch / @businessposthq poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
⭐ Fine Gael — 28
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🟢 Independent Ireland — 12
🌳 Aontú — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
The 6 seat rule is the biggest issue, even Sainte-Laguë would struggle to fix it. STV or bigger lists would help.
Reform hit their polling average almost exactly, it was everyone (except YouGov) underestimating Plaid that caused the miss.
The hexagons show seats: 3/6 segments means the party is winning 3 seats, 1/6 means winning one seat.