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Here’s what I’ve always stood for. Too bad all of the Republican leaders in the swamp betrayed these principles just to satisfy corporate and foreign lobbies. A lot of Republican congressmen who followed them off the cliff are probably regretting their decisions right about now.
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Sarah is 4 years old, the daughter of a disabled veteran, with a mother who fiercely believes in her future. ❤️
God bless America! 🇺🇸
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Huge thanks to @aleabitoreddit for wrapping the full $SIVE thesis so cleanly.
After reading it, here’s our take on $SIVE:
• The real story on $SIVE isn’t the small orders or the messy messaging. It’s that $SIVE is about to drop one of the largest chunks of new merchant CW laser capacity into the market at the exact moment everyone else is sold out or locked up.
• $SIVE is bringing 100M+ lasers online in Glasgow Q4 2027 + foundry capacity on top. Even at a conservative $4–5 ASP, that $SIVE capacity alone points to hundreds of millions in potential annual revenue at 50-60%+ gross margins once it ramps. On a ~$700M market cap today, $SIVE looks like a completely different company if it executes.
• What makes $SIVE different from just another capacity story is the timing of the shortage. Lumentum is sold out into 2029, Coherent and others have redirected lasers internally, and module makers are actively adding suppliers and signing multi-year deals. In that environment, quals for $SIVE convert faster and more of the $SIVE pipeline actually turns into production. That’s why the breadth of $SIVE’s engagements (Jabil, GlobalFoundries, LiDAR production orders already starting, plus others) matters more than any single name.
• Most of the custom/CPO work $SIVE did in 2023-2024 was sticky but slow. The shift toward mass 70/100/200mW lasers for pluggables is what actually lines up with the $SIVE capacity ramp. If even a couple of those $SIVE paths convert at scale in 2027, the numbers look nothing like today’s $SIVE revenue.
The market is still pricing $SIVE like the near-term noise is the main story. We don’t think it is.
What are you waiting for on $SIVE?
PS: long $SIVE
NFA
Yes, I like $SIVE. It's a fun company to cover, since there's a lot of supply chain alpha here.
But the company completely Tall Poppy Syndromed itself last earnings.
And it's clearly shown in the drawdown.
Bit of a longer consolidated thought and some scattered bits of supply chain info:
- Sivers has 100M CW DFB laser capacity coming online Q4 2027 during an industry shortage.
And very large allocations from foundries online (they were doing these quals with Win Semi + 2 others back in 2023/2024), so they can actively monetize the bottleneck today.
The other interesting reason why bottlenecks are important (aside from ASP hikes), is because qualifications convert much faster + more likely given incentives around supply scarcity.
-> As one example, module makers have expanded the amount of suppliers, eg. (lightcounting cited companies expanding to 5-7+ suppliers from 2-3).
Innolight, for example last month responded to a question addressing tight 1.6T DFB laser supply in 2026–2027:
- Innolight was actively introducing new suppliers last month and are planning to sign 2-3 year-long contracts to lock upstream capacity
-> This is while your biggest merchant laser companies making up the world's 600m+ EML/CW laser capacity like $COHR have redirected lasers to their own programs. $LITE sold out into 2029, Landmark also locked a lot of their capacity into 2027-2029. $AAOI was an expected player, but ended up redirecting lasers into their own transceiver programs too.
And this coincides with times $SIVE has tremendous capacity available now + actively engaged with Chinese pluggables players (not saying it's Innolight, but just shows Chinese makers like Cambridge/Eoptolink are actively trying to secure laser capacity).
- Fun to note, before $JBL was announced, Sivers had and has ongoing direct engagements with hyperscalers as well.
We saw that hyperscalers approached $MTSI and $AAOI for laser capacity from their earnings transcripts (and hilariously got turned away from AAOI due to shortages).
So the odds pluggable makers or hyperscalers end up converting to capacity agreements with $SIVE seems a materially higher.
Just a little rant: for all the sellside/retail trying to model revenue, you can't just slap on a stupid 25-35% CAGR on NRE revenue since it's close to 0 revenue now.
Especially when they scale up to maybe 300M laser capacity (extrapolated from 2:1 external/internal capacity).
It's also not the same as $POET having OE packaging capacity at scale, since lasers are in a genuine shortage. So capacity is more likely to convert like how $AAOI is sold out, $LITE is sold out into 2029
We've already seen what revenue that laser capacity brings in since $LITE cited $5B in laser capacity from just one 2028 fab alone in Greensboro (on higher end ranges).
And whatever lasers Sivers sell, they're targeting ~50-60+ blended gross margins long term on maybe $3-6 for lower range lasers to $6-$12 for high end custom deployments. But no disclosures around capacity -> revenue conversion yet from Sivers.
Now here's the thing people don't really understand, "why no revenue?" for current opportunities?
$SIVE pre 2024 focused on custom development for future architectural shifts like CPO.
For custom deployments:
- We finally got conversion from 1 of their 4 or so lidar customers this week with ~ $AEVA.
- ~ $APPL was confirmed ongoing earlier this year with an explanation that "It takes tremendous amount of trials and algorithms way beyond just what we supply to them".
- All their customers from 2023-2024 like Ayar and 3 others, probably achieve volume in 2028 as CPO takes off.
Custom high end lasers programs are extremely sticky but take many years and are mainly NRE. And as seen with CPO scale up, faced delays with commercialization over the years.
So $SIVE from the CEO shift in 2024 realized "okay" let's ramp revenue with mass commercialization products today like 70mW/100mW/200mW lasers for 800g/1.6T pluggables.
And that's where they found $JBL and all your other large pluggable players today during the shortage.
Now... the work Sivers did in 2023-2024 earlier: Such as $AAPL, Ayar, $AEVA, other lidar/CPO players.
And their new mass commercialization opportunities like $JBL, $GFS, and many pluggables/NPO suppliers in engagement now.
Have all their inflection points converges 2027 onward, which is why I find the company compelling.
Where I think management went completely wrong was messaging and near-term execution:
- Deciding to focus on current tiny contracts like Seminex, AllSpace, Tachyon orders felt like the entire focus recently in earnings, shareholder letters, and media commentary
-> Brutal honesty to $SIVE management, majority of Western audiences literally don't care and it's immaterial to the valuation.
$SIVE moved 0% on all of the Seminex/AllSpace/Tachyon order announcements, and even dropped in price. But rallied like 50% on $GFS and something similar on $JBL announcement.
The reason why most took long positions in the first place was CPO.
So if $SIVE wants to go answer questions to Swedish media about "Why are you bleeding out" and defending that with cellular orders explaining pipeline conversion.
That's not going to help people stay long during drawdowns.
-> Second part was not committing to NASDAQ listing in a certain timeframe and actually executing.
- If there's delays, sure, just say it, but non-committal lawyer-like language is infuriating to hear, especially from the CFO.
I think they'll have that opportunity next month earnings to correct everything.
So wrapping up:
- There's nothing I see remotely close to $SIVE, in terms of % of global CW laser capacity they're coming online with relative to MC.
- They have a ton commercialization paths, from O-Net, $POET, $JBL, Ayar, $GFS, $AAPL, $AEVA, and many potential hyperscaler/pluggable engagements.
Even if one or two fall through, the breadth of ongoing quals is so deep + current laser bottleneck is severe, that it's more likely than not many will convert to production.
It's clear $SIVE wants to focus on dominating the laser chokepoint first, and ended up using their 700m SEK fundraise for capacity expansion.
But they should focus on communicating the billions in potential economic scale from that laser capacity conversion.
And execute on it.
Driven Sports retweeted
$SIVE CEO Vickram Vathulya bought 70,000 shares on July 17 at $3.80 a share. Roughly 2.6 million SEK of his own money, per the Swedish FSA’s insider register, reported by EFN.
That was the day after the lock-up ended. Other insiders used the window to sell. He used it to buy more.
He now holds over 4.5 million shares plus 3.7 million options.
Today $SIVE trades well below what he paid. Nothing in the business has changed since July to justify that. The Jabil beta builds are on track for Q4, the GlobalFoundries collaboration is in place, and the Glasgow expansion is funded.
The person with the most information about this company bought at $3.80. It's now almost under $2.
Driven Sports retweeted
BREAKING: Jared Kushner’s hacked iPhone revealed that Kushner promised MBS and MBZ he would push their agenda with Trump if they participated in a secret fund, with the two royals initially discussing over $10 billion before ultimately placing at least $2 billion into accounts for him, according to a Vanity Fair excerpt from Princes and Thieves.
The revelation lands as Kushner remains deeply involved in Iran war diplomacy, while Tehran has separately accused him and Steve Witkoff of pocketing $9 billion through market manipulation.
Driven Sports retweeted
Exciting, $SIVE gets their first production orders for CW DFB lasers with LiDAR.
“We are pleased to see this strategic program advance from design-win to production”.
With opportunity for expansion given the speculated customer $AEVA is moving into CPO/NPO optical sources for hyperscalers and leveraging existing technology.
But this is great commercial validation of technology and execution so far.
That’s 1 qualification converted of many more to come, especially for AI DCs from $GFS to $JBL.
Driven Sports retweeted
$SIVE
Aeva just posted 40 minutes ago that
its Atlas 4D LiDAR has received official regulatory certification as a secondary speed verification solution for Sensys Gatso Group's automated traffic enforcement systems in Australia,
clearing the path for full-scale public road deployment.
Finally! Production orders for $SIVE.
$SIVE has received its first production orders for a strategic LiDAR customer,
with shipments starting in Q4 2026 ahead of 2027 full-scale production.
The program reconfirms a long-term cumulative revenue potential of USD 53 million to USD 138 million over the customer's product lifecycle.
Driven Sports retweeted
BREAKING: The US has carried out strikes on Iran's Konarak Naval Base on the southeastern coast, wounding two Iranian soldiers, per Al Jazeera.
It is the first US strike on Iran in nearly 7 weeks.
Iran will likely retaliate tonight.
Driven Sports retweeted
BREAKING: The war is officially back.
America is bombing Iran now.
Multiple explosions are going off in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.
Two Iranian personnel are now fighting for their lives.
The IRGC will most likely carry out retaliatory strikes across the Middle East in the next 48 hours.
Several countries have warned their citizens to stay indoors across the Middle East.
Embassies are now warning citizens to prepare for possible airport shutdowns.
Things are about to get brutal.
Driven Sports retweeted
I don’t say this often:
This is one of the best investing accounts on X.
Now he’s calling $SIVE at $2.
Learning about a company today: $SIVE.
One of the optical names I’ve spent more time on.
Servers move electrical signals. Fiber runs light. Optical modules do the conversion in between. Sivers sits further upstream — they make the InP lasers that actually generate the light.
As AI clusters move from 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T, bandwidth keeps going up, and the requirements on laser power, efficiency, and stability go up with it. Sivers is already working on 70mW, 100mW, 200mW DFB lasers and laser arrays. That puts them in a position to supply pluggable, NPO, and CPO.
That’s the part I find interesting about their setup. You don’t have to bet which optical architecture wins. As long as AI networking keeps scaling, the light source layer has to improve.
On execution, the key project right now is with Jabil. They’re developing a 1.6T LRO module using Sivers DFB lasers. If that line gets traction, the business model changes.
A big chunk of revenue used to come from NRE — customers paying them to do development work. They’re now trying to shift more toward product revenue. You can see it in the numbers if you look at the reports.
Q2 revenue was only SEK 53.8M, so the top line still looks weak. But product revenue grew 18% year-over-year at constant currency. Opportunity pipeline is now at $1.2B, up 268%.
They’ve also announced $30M to expand the Glasgow InP fab, aiming for over 100 million CW DFB lasers per year by Q4 2027. For a company this size, scaling capacity that aggressively suggests management is preparing for real AI optical volume.
The risk is obvious — if orders don’t show up, that capacity turns into cost. Debt is also worth watching, especially with the cloud spending questions floating around. They did finish a financing round this year: the $12M convertible converted, and the remaining $5M term loan has been paid off. Near-term, the main question has shifted from survival to actually selling product.
Market cap is around SEK 7.8B right now. TTM revenue is about SEK 278M, so roughly 28x sales. In the optical packaging space, worth putting this on the same watchlist as Marvell.
Just my view.
Driven Sports retweeted
The Epstein Affair is not going away. We cannot allow pedophiles or their enablers of any class to walk away scot-free.
Name Names Now!
Thomas Massie responds to media when asked about the latest developments on the Epstein Files: “You know, if this were a private law firm with 5% of the resources of the DOJ, this would have been done by the deadline. And they just missed another deadline, which is the report to Congress, which is supposed to list all the politicians that are in their files, and also they’re supposed to justify all the redactions 15 days after the first 30-day window.
But the biggest problem isn’t that they’re missing the deadlines—it’s what they’re redacting. So they’re citing the Privacy Act and they’re trying to pretend like that overrides a law that we just passed that says you can’t withhold records to prevent embarrassment. They’re also citing FOIA standards which don’t apply to our law when they’re trying to say that they don’t have to release internal decisions, but our bill specifically says release internal decisions.”
The victims will NEVER see justice.
And the saddest part? These perpetrators are still out there raping, trafficking and murdering children.
Driven Sports retweeted
An interesting headline I found on the $SIVE subreddit:
"Samsung is reportedly hunting for a sipho acquisition"
It true, Samsung official to MTN (Oct 16): considering M&A to strengthen its silicon photonics foundry, No target named.
But prolly $SIVE is not a candidate to be acquired, first of all “Foundry capabilities” is broad. It could mean silicon photonics design tools, process technology, packaging or test, it doesn't mean lasers.
$SIVE also already supplies lasers for $GFS SCALE CPO solution, and Samsung is a $GFS competitor.
And buying a laser maker isn't an efficent way of getting lasers for a sipho process, you can just partner w/ a laser maker for IP like the $GFS $SIVE deal
The good part of this is that it confirms demand for sipho, and that is basically it.
Also side note be wary of these absolutely pure AI slop reddit posts, they often get things super wrong. They provide headlines sometimes tho.
for example “More SiPh capacity means more supply.” Sipho chips can’t make light, so every chip a new SiPh foundry ships needs an external laser. So this framing of more supply/competition for $SIVE is wrong.
Be wary of info and sources!
Driven Sports retweeted
A closer look at the controversial ending of tonight’s BYU-Notre Dame game.
ABC rules analyst Matt Austin acknowledged that defensive pass interference likely occurred on Jaden Greathouse as the ball fell incomplete.
The ending has also sparked debate over whether one second should have remained on the clock after the pass was ruled incomplete.
Driven Sports retweeted
I got it pointed it that $SIVE is actually sampling 200mW DISCRETE lasers not laser arrays. So they have no current developments that would fit the 200mW array spec.
Here is the quote from the q2 call: “the need is 200-milliwatt laser singles or 100-milliwatt laser arrays, both of which we are sampling as we speak.”
Keep that in mind please.
I got my hands on the Ayar Labs presentation at OCP 2026. Here is what I see and what it means for $SIVE:
The biggest news is the "“multi-vendor laser die", which is confirmation that Ayar isn’t single-sourcing lasers. So it won't be just $SIVE if they are selected, but multiple suppliers.
This is pretty standard, as everyone knows these lasers are in high demand so multiple laser sources are becoming the norm:
(LightCounting "Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7.")
Now, comparing the technical specs to $SIVE's lasers:
Ayar: 8 channels × 23 dBm ≈ 200mW each, measured at the module. The laser chip itself has to be even stronger.
$SIVE public array: 100mW per channel.
That is a clear gap, maybe not catastrophic tho cus $SIVE has said they have been "sampling" 200mW parts. My interpretation being customers are checking them out, like engineering samples.
SMSR: how pure the single color is, Higher is better:
Ayar spec: >40 dB
$SIVE guarantees: ≥35 dB
Linewidth: how narrow and steady the color is, Lower is better.
Ayar's spec: <1 MHz
Sivers guarantees: ≤10 MHz
To be fair, I have read enough @insane_analyst to know it probably isnt fair to compare linewidth numbers here, cus without knowing how each was measured, you can’t say how big the real gap is.
Another thing, what $SIVE guarantees could be quite conservative. I am no engineer but I maybe wouldn't focus so much on comparing the linewidth. Same with SMSR and RIN since they check out. Lmk if I am wrong in the replies tho.
The most obvious problem is power. Ayar needs about 200mW per channel at the module, so the chip has to put out even more. $SIVE's public array is 100mW so there is a gap.
Fitting would requires the 200mW parts $SIVE says it’s sampling
I am still trying to learn about all this technical stuff, so pardon me if my interpretations are incorrect, but these are some of the things I noted.
Follow for more of these breakdowns, I really try to digest everything I possibly can and post it.
Driven Sports retweeted
I am not going away @vladtenev @DanGallagher
AMC Entertainment does not consent to Robinhood creating Stock Tokens to replicate AMC shares in the United States (the SEC requires you to get our consent, or failing that, at least with us to stand down). They are fake, synthetic shares, which could impact our capital structure.
AMC should control our financial destiny, not Robinhood.
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Be honest, we know you guys miss us…😏🥰
“In about a year and a half, the federal workforce shrank by more than a tenth, while targeted grants and contracts declined as well. The government kept functioning much as before. One might call that a success.”
DOGE worked. Most importantly, the civil service is 12% smaller than it was in Jan 2025.
In the Fall @CityJournal, I show they were not replaced by contractors, the biggest cuts were to middle managers, and the predictions of disaster were proven false. city-journal.org/article/dog…
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BREAKING: Iran has now completely rebuilt its missile force to nearly prewar strength, with at least 400 operational launchers compared with 420 before Operation Roaring Lion in February, as Israeli security officials say Tehran restored its launch capability within months, per Channel 16.
The recovery comes as the IRGC conducts large-scale missile exercises across Isfahan, Yazd and Kermanshah. More than three exercises were held, with 50 missiles of various types tested, while the Pentagon prepares for a potential three-day campaign targeting Iran’s missile and drone arsenal.
Iranian forces suggest Tehran could launch a large volley of missiles in a single wave against Israel.