Dvolatility

Nouriel Roubini - "Dr. Doom," who warned of the 2008 crisis two years early - says the capex boom has lifted US potential growth from 2% to "closer to 3%" - and an AI bubble is "not my view" "I think it's a secular increase in capex and potential growth, but some corrections could occur" Even Bloomberg's host said it on air: "I'm still getting used to the more optimistic Nouriel Roubini" Why he's optimistic now: > Why Yields Are Rising (1:12): - Not inflation, not mainly debt fears - "the biggest driver of the rise in real yield is the boom in capex, AI and technology of the future. > More Jobs, For Now (3:16): - AI displacement is "a medium or long-term kind of concern." In the short run, "this capex boom implies more demand for labor" > What Still Worries Dr. Doom (3:50): - A Strait of Hormuz "still half open, half closed," fears of a post-midterm strike on Iran, and debt nobody consolidates. But "it's not my baseline" > One Of A Dozen (4:59): - "People are obsessed about AI" - but robotics, semis, biotech, defense, space, quantum and fusion are each "subject to improvements and productivity increases because of AI." > The AGI Clock (5:50): - "Some people say that we could get to... AGI in the next two, three years." The drag on growth so far, he says, came from tariffs and the oil shock - not from AI Back in 2010 he said he's no permabear - when the facts change, so will his view... In my scorecard of "AI Crash Calls", he's the only one who actually did it ↓