Investing, mostly. The longer version is at https://xitter.cf/t.co/aVFT25nefY
Boston, MA
Joined January 2014
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Value investing is mostly buying something nobody wants and then acting surprised nobody wants it
Big week for the AI trade and the market as a whole…
should be a nice relaxing few days in this very normal market.
coughlincap.com/p/the-week-a…
Brian Coughlin retweeted
$EWZ -26% Brazil election upset rattles markets as Lula clings to power @seekingalpha
Alright where’s $QQQ finishing the week?
24%Up more than 2%
21%Up 0–2%
29%Down 0–2%
26%Down more than 2%
34 votes • Final results$EWZ limit down?
LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA WON BRAZIL’S PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF WITH 51% OF THE VOTE AGAINST FLÁVIO BOLSONARO’S 49%, SECURING AN UNPRECEDENTED FOURTH TERM AND DEFEATING THE POLITICAL MOVEMENT BUILT BY FORMER PRESIDENT JAIR BOLSONARO. LULA’S COMEBACK WAS SUPPORTED BY VOTERS IN HIS NORTHEASTERN STRONGHOLD, HALTING A RIGHTWARD POLITICAL SHIFT IN LATIN AMERICA.
Squeeze incoming
This is crazy.
Short sales have outpaced long buying by a staggering 5:1 month-to-date, pushing short leverage close to five-year highs.
We have 44% of all earnings next week including loads of tech companies.
If the Nasdaq can hold the range into earnings and we see some surprises, that's a monster amount of fuel for a squeeze.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
No horse in the race, but baba has the balance sheet, geopolitical support and technical know-how to both develop their own chips and build their own datacenter in western aligned jurisdictions. There is a reason they are allowed to fab at TSMC when most other players can’t.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Just running some $SE math. Open invitation to poke holes in it.
Fully Diluted Mkt Cap: $52b
Net Cash (after leases): $5b
Ecommerce: $142b in GMV. Assume 30% isn't real economic activity because of refunds/ brushing.
At a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin, which I think is conservative, that is $1.5b.
Sea Monee LTM EBIT $1B
Garena $1.5b EBIT
Add in about -$750m of other service losses and unallocated expenses. Then taxed at 32%.
Comes out to 21x earnings.
Last quarter total revenue's grew +48% y/y.
Keep in mind if we assume the higher EBIT/ GMV margin, then growth in that segment would be less, but a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin is generally not a "fully monetized" ecomm margin, so there is still room for growth investment in that figure.
Also Garena can be a bit volatile and there is still an open question on long term credit risk for Sea Monee.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Bought quite a bit of $SE today. I was waiting for this.
You can buy $SE at ~11x 2027 FCF.
Revenue is expected to grow over ~20% next year, with earnings growing nearly ~40%.
CHINESE TECH GIANTS REPORTEDLY ORDER OVER $35B IN $NVDA AI CHIPS
ByteDance, Alibaba $BABA and Tencent have reportedly placed orders for more than 3M Nvidia RTX PRO 5500 GPUs as U.S. export restrictions limit access to more advanced AI processors.
The export-compliant chips cost around $11,400 each and are primarily designed for AI inference workloads.
Total Chinese orders reportedly exceed 6M GPUs, while Nvidia expects to produce no more than 3M globally in 2027 as manufacturing capacity shifts toward its next-generation Rubin chips.
Nvidia has warned partners they may receive just 5-10% of requested quantities, with commercial shipments expected to begin in Q1 2027.
The reported order values do not represent confirmed sales or guaranteed deliveries.
Source: Reuters.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
🚨HOLY. Business Insider obtained internal Amazon emails projecting $5 BILLION in Nvidia GB300 racks deliveries in August, then roughly $3 BILLION EVERY MONTH.
Some AWS data centers have room for the racks but NOT enough power to turn them on. Equipment is being staged in warehouses, while Amazon takes ownership earlier, tying up cash before deployment.
At an internal September staff meeting, AWS CFO John Felton joked to infrastructure chief Prasad Kalyanaraman: "You've taken us free cash flow negative as a company, so congratulations."
AWS's infrastructure chief expects Amazon's free cash flow to remain negative for 'the next couple of years or so.'
RT @Sino_Market: 🇨🇳#China Economic activity data:
3Q GDP 4.6% y/y, [Est.4.4%]
1️⃣Sept retail sales 1.1% y/y [Est.0.6%]
2️⃣Sept industrial o…
