Matt | https://xitter.cf/t.co/QEZtw7nqje
Joined September 2025
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If you see a bad trade from me, just know it was a hedge. I'm up on the other platform. Yeah, the one where trades aren't public. Way up
It's increasingly difficult to finance public polling. Which is why there are fewer legit orgs and more charlatans. Increased regulation would likely reduce polling even further
Polls are part of what makes prediction markets so informative
semafor.com/article/10/25/20…
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/whe…
Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf
on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq
They have these for all the candidates, just fyi
MBAPPE NEW BALLON D'OR WINNER???
ballondor.com/news/posts/kyl…
Priced In
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Wrote a review of @pascaldottrade, a new prediction market exchange.
Main takeaway is it's an interesting new entrant which has potential. Liquidity is pretty good, APIs are great, fees are lower. Read the whole thing though.
substack.com/home/post/p-221…
Good article. Most interesting tidbit is that Shayne can't get fired
Polymarket has been a bit of a mess, but I prefer him in charge over the likely alternatives
scoops! @antoniabmassa and i dug into the push and pull between polymarket investors and the prediction market's CEO, shayne coplan.
story features private jet flights, elon musk's personal lawyer, talks with goldman sachs as well as cantor fitzgerald
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Thought I was having some type of cardiac event, but turns out just a strained pec muscle. All that stuff is too close together
I’m testing out pascal this week
Will probably do a review afterwards, so be on the lookout
Our midterms rewards program ends in 3 weeks, on November 4th, and there is still 45,000 USD remaining to be distributed to traders
If you have been thinking of trying Pascal, now is a great time to do it
app.pascal.trade/?utm_source…
eventwaves retweeted
Data centers are a political problem in the US, an energy problem in Europe, and an arms smuggling problem in China.
eventwaves retweeted
Kalshi’s election combos lets us back out implied correlation between Senate races. Quickly vibe coded with Claude: Avg ≈ 0.34 after 4 days of data & small sample. Market makers are still pricing some pairs like they’re unrelated.
HT to retired trader who came up with idea.
Perhaps there's a good reason, but this whole investigation looks quite bad
I'm not smart enough to understand why scandals do or don't win the public's attention, but I was blown away by this reporting from @CGorrivan, @ElleBeyoud and @nicola_m_white. If you're interested in markets, it's worth your time. Here's a gift link bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Lots of banks reporting earnings this week
Seems like they like to report as early as possible
I've always thought banking would be the hardest sector to cover
New Matt Levine podcast today featuring the head of SIG prediction markets
Interesting that the biggest institutional hedging demand is coming from datacenter construction
Wonder if a Polymarket institutional affiliate is doing something similar and that's why rewards are so high
Interesting how everyone's brain is different
I have to push myself to take 'longshot bets', even when +EV. I hate the feeling of multiple losses in a row. Feels like I'm feeding money into an incinerator
eventwaves retweeted
A common misconception about prediction markets are that the if there is low liquidity, the price is inaccurate
Believe me, if you move something far off the FV , liquidity will come real quick and correct it
There are three explanations for why Polymarekt and Kalshi are so far off the mark:
A. Users skew heavily towards younger degens who are betting ideologically on low-volumes
B. Democrats are using as a cheap marketing mechanism to drive lower Republican turnout as $1-2m of volume within the context of $100m+ campaign budgets make it a no-brainer ROAS
C. Trump admin is manipulating to keep the Chinese, Iranians and Europeans discombobulated allowing them to think Trump will be a lame duck for the next two years
I’m partial to option B but we’ll probably never know 🤷♂️
SuperFastMatt went ~100mph faster than he intended and lost his racing licenses
His car had two sensors reading correctly and 1 sensor reading 0. His speedometer averaged the 3 readings, so he thought he was going much slower than reality
This failure type is common. Careful with averages!
Revived one of my old projects
It finds all the recent podcast mentions of your team
Made it because it was hard to find Panthers talk! chatterbx.com/
