Laird of Strathglass | Futures Trader | Full-Time Idler
London, England
Joined June 2016
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stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Anyone dismissing the recent China rumours as “just rumours” needs a master class in Chinese history. For 3000 years, rumours have always been instruments of political mobilisation and change: Chen Sheng’s prophecy concealed in a fish’s belly; Liu Bang’s tale of killing the white snake; the CCP’s denunciations of the “four big families” as symbols of Nationalist corruption; and the alleged secret order attributed to Chiang Kai-shek not to resist Japan.
In Chinese history, rumours are rarely just rumours. In the right hands, they can become political weapons—testing public sentiment, delegitimising rivals, shaping collective memory, and preparing the ground for change.
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Red Sea is in chaos, tankers are ablaze in Hormuz, the Black Sea keeps toggling between outages and restarts, energy infra takes non-stop hits, OoW has taken a massive haircut, "diplomacy(lol)" is a complete circus, freight rates are through the roof, and crack spreads are hovering near ATHs. GCC shut-ins are easily 5–6mb/d even on the most conservative back of the envelope math.
Yet Brent flat price is sitting dead in the low $80s. At least in crude, I’m purely an S/D trader, and for the life of me, I cannot reconcile this tape with reality.
Hence i’m not pushing size here. No point in forcing trades on price action i can't rationalize... Part of me wants to fade the price, but we’ve all seen just how deep the market can dig its heels in when it decides to ignore physicals. Lest we forget, this market literally faded a ~12mb/d shut-ins.
Plenty of sharp guys are dropping great breakdowns on flows and physical balances. And i'm right there with them. But the reality is, this market is too structurally broken to care about fundamentals anymore. One tweet or one headline lie sets the narrative, and the narrative runs the price.
There are just far better places to put risk to work right now—the metals complex in commodities or FX on the macro side. What it actually takes to shock crude out of this trance is beyond me.
If I can't price it, I don't trade it. Yeah maybe i'm a fk PTSD guy...
#oott #iran
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Real men blow up trading natural gas, not software stocks and data center REITs.
Disgusting how far society has fallen.
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Dan Burn against Spain tiki-taka at the World Cup
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
2 guys making sandwiches at the Wawa loudly discussing their profits on Semi trades just now.
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Much of the commentary seems to be missing the wood for the trees...it remains the case that, based on public comments, the US has little-to-no desire to re-escalate the situation...path remains towards off-ramps...rough path, yes, but as long as we're on it risk stays bid...
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
SOURCES CLOSE TO AXIOS REPORTS THAT IRANIAN ‘PEACE ROCKETS’ WERE LAUNCHED AT THE UAE AS A WAY TO CELEBRATE THE END OF THE WAR. PAKISTANI OFFICIALS CONFIRM THAT THE AERIAL DISPLAY OF LOVE WAS WELL RECEIVED BY EVERYONE AND THE STRAIT IS OPEN.
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
Escalate (create leverage) , pause , negotiate...escalate , pause , negotiate.
TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL:
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA IS IN SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS WITH A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME TO END OUR MILITARY OPERATIONS IN IRAN. GREAT PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE BUT, IF FOR ANY REASON A DEAL IS NOT SHORTLY REACHED, WHICH IT PROBABLY WILL BE, AND IF THE HORMUZ STRAIT IS NOT IMMEDIATELY “OPEN FOR BUSINESS,” WE WILL CONCLUDE OUR LOVELY “STAY” IN IRAN BY BLOWING UP AND COMPLETELY OBLITERATING ALL OF THEIR ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTS, OIL WELLS AND KHARG ISLAND (AND POSSIBLY ALL DESALINIZATION PLANTS!), WHICH WE HAVE PURPOSEFULLY NOT YET “TOUCHED.” THIS WILL BE IN RETRIBUTION FOR OUR MANY SOLDIERS, AND OTHERS, THAT IRAN HAS BUTCHERED AND KILLED OVER THE OLD REGIME’S 47 YEAR “REIGN OF TERROR.” THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
If you need any more evidence as to why we felt the need to do on the ground research…
The tweet below took our footage of a lenj on fire off the coast of Oman, about 12nm from Iran, poorly scrubbed out the watermark and presented it as a “warship on fire” in Lebanon. Ten thousand likes.
The disinformation is staggering.
JUST IN🇱🇧❌🇮🇱🔥 Hezbollah Announced that it has struck a largest Israeli military warship 68 Nautical miles off the Lebanese coast with a sea-launched cruise missile.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The video was filmed in the Strait of Hormuz, not off the coast of Lebanon.
The IRGC has claimed responsibility for a drone attack on the MSC Ishyka.
ilgiornaleditalia.it/video/esteri/7…
stagflationary transitory in countryside syndrome retweeted
The probability of sending troops is very very low. Trump cannot say he won’t in the middle of a military operation since the other side will simply escalate. Clausewitz 101
NEW: I just spoke briefing w/ President Trump on the phone. He said he is NOT ruling out sending ground troops into Iran if they do not make a deal. He also said no infrastructure targets are off the table for U.S. strikes if no deal is reached
Story incoming on @thehill @NewsNation