NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Oil–bond correlation flips: growth scare? 🔸 Brent's backwardation & roll-yield trade 🔸 Record Brent–WTI spread + export-ban risk 🔸 Drained SPR: no buffer left 🔸 Crypto's bottom signal vs. no liquidity @fejau_inc @qthomp TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two 01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3% 02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up 05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case 09:45 Reading The Oil Curve 12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs 16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries 20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through 23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions 29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan 36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices 39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil? 44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming? 54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto

The Brent–WTI spread was $2–4 before the war. Now the US gets a $13–14 per barrel discount. @qthomp on why markets may be front-running a crude export ban.

Crypto's bottom won't be a V. @qthomp on why, with no liquidity, a real bottom can take many, many months.

.@qthomp: "The only way out is through." Either much higher prices via escalation, or prices high enough to destroy demand.

Macro meets crypto at DAS London, Nov 10–11. George Osborne, BlackRock, JPMorgan and the UK Shadow Financial Secretary on policy and TradFi's move into digital assets. @blockworksDAS, prices rise Nov 4. blockworks.com/event/digital…

Front-month Brent: $112–113. March 2027: $101. @qthomp on the $12–13 roll yield he earns by being long oil futures.

There's no SPR left to cap prices. In past breakouts, hundreds of millions of SPR barrels were drained to suppress prices. That's gone. The US holds ~70 days of demand in reserve. The only way out is through: escalation or demand destruction.

Refiners are building a floor under crude. Global utilization is maxed and plants are skipping maintenance to capture record cracks. Jet fuel margins now exceed the average barrel cost in ~20 of the last 24 years. High cracks keep refiners buying crude.

The Brent–WTI spread is back near wartime highs. It was $2–4 pre-war. Now the US gets a $13–14 discount, so everyone else pays a 10–15% premium. Quinn suspects the market is front-running an export ban expanding into crude, so he keeps oil exposure offshore.

.@qthomp's trade is long the Brent curve. Front-month Brent is $112–113. March 2027 is $101. That $12–13 gap is roll yield for anyone long futures. Oil flat into March: you earn the roll. Oil up: roll plus the move. Back to $101: you're flat.

Oil and bonds just broke up. For months, oil and yields moved in lockstep on overheating fears. This week oil kept climbing while yields fell, and the 20-day correlation turned negative. @fejau_inc calls it a classic risk-off day, maybe the start of a recession rotation.

Front-month Brent is $112–113. March 2027 is $101. That $12–13 gap pays anyone long oil just to wait. Here's why the market still isn't positioned for it.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 283M barrels, its lowest level since 1982. That's ~133M barrels drained since March. In past oil spikes, Washington could release barrels to cap prices. That cushion is mostly gone. Source: EIA

If you missed this week's roundup with @fejau_inc and @qthomp, here it is in under 4 minutes.

The margin on refining crude into jet fuel is now bigger than the average cost of a barrel in ~20 of the last 24 years. @qthomp on the floor under oil.

In past oil breakouts, hundreds of millions of SPR barrels capped prices. @qthomp: "That is gone."

From overheating fears to growth fears in a week. @fejau_inc on why oil and bonds just broke up.