CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance
Joined December 2018
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Quinn Thompson retweeted
The Brent–WTI spread was $2–4 before the war. Now the US gets a $13–14 per barrel discount. @qthomp on why markets may be front-running a crude export ban.
Trump’s plea to Russia corroborates what we wrote a few months ago about the reflexivity of the ongoing wars and one of the reasons these conflicts never end.
“The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are reflexive. The US is not going to allow Iran to control the SoH. This front leads to higher commodity prices. Higher commodity prices support the Russian economy which supports their war efforts. By keeping commodity prices elevated, the longer Russia fights Ukraine, it helps Iran, and the longer Iran fights the US, it helps Russia.”
Give the report a read.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Crypto's bottom won't be a V. @qthomp on why, with no liquidity, a real bottom can take many, many months.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
.@qthomp: "The only way out is through." Either much higher prices via escalation, or prices high enough to destroy demand.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Front-month Brent: $112–113. March 2027: $101. @qthomp on the $12–13 roll yield he earns by being long oil futures.
Last night the Brewers posted the 4th highest scoring inning in world series history. They scored 8 runs via a walk, 4 singles and 3 doubles, all with 2 outs. The last time a 4-0 sweep happened in the World Series was 2012. Milwaukee takes their 3-0 series lead into game 4 tonight.
FOMC this week is a nothing burger but the weeks that follow are unlikely to be. There will be lots for the market to process and digest through mid-November. We discuss our expectations around the Fed, midterms and QRA in the note.
Wisconsinites ascend upon Florida today as the Brewers take their 2-0 series lead to Tampa. Milwaukee is putting together a historic season, setting a franchise record 103 regular season wins and carrying a 9-1 record in the postseason into tonight. Two more wins and they will bring home their first title in 57 years as a franchise. ⚾️🧢🍺
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Milwaukee Brewers back to the World Series for the first time since 1982 🧀🧀🧀🍺🍺🍺🍻🍻🍻 #OnWisconsin
Oil is the best-performing sector year to date but BofA’s fund manager survey shows fundamental investors continue to reduce energy exposure while global allocators remain deeply underweight. The response I get to the bull case is some version of “Trump has it under control.”
Quinn Thompson retweeted
If you missed this week's roundup with @fejau_inc and @qthomp, here it is in under 4 minutes.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
More #ENERGY #EQUITIES are making it to the upcoming report.
I don't want to be a chart book economist. So far charts are leading me to signals in the sector.
But who else is reading "We will not hit Iran" as "We will hit Iran"... Which politicians words can be taken at face value?
Stay tuned for the Global Equity Markets report >> blog.techcharts.net
Quinn Thompson retweeted
The margin on refining crude into jet fuel is now bigger than the average cost of a barrel in ~20 of the last 24 years. @qthomp on the floor under oil.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
In past oil breakouts, hundreds of millions of SPR barrels capped prices. @qthomp: "That is gone."
"The question is, do we want to finish it off or let it wither?"
The answer is you have no choice. The global economy will wither as oil prices go to $150 then $200 if you don't do something about it. If you do do something about it, oil prices will also do that, but in hopes that a resolution and lower prices can then come sooner. The cinches on the trap continue to tighten by the day.
.@POTUS on Iran: "Last week, we took more oil out than we have ever taken out, even before the war... The question is, do we want to finish it off or do we just want to let it wither?"
Front running the next leg of war...
Shanghai back to a discount.....
Brent crude front month future contract versus Shanghai crude front month future contract in USD/bbl #oott
