Jeremy Frankel

People forget what 2018 and 2020 were like. Bad GOP years. In 2018 we were in the depths of Russiagate and the investigations into the President. Democrats were completely unified in their effort to stop Trump. Republicans were still massively divided. Women's marches were everywhere. Protests in DC nonstop. Democrats were activated, mobilized, and Trump was completely hamstrung. We came in with 53 Senate seats and held on to 51. We flipped Florida - Rick Scott defeated an incumbent Bill Nelson, and DeSantis won. We flipped Missouri and Indiana, too. In 2020 we were in the depths of COVID and peak BLM hysteria. Democrats were again incredibly activated. Mass protests everywhere. Polls were projecting a complete wipeout, and the President losing to Biden by 10+. Trump only lost the popular vote by about 4.5 points. Dems just barely held the Senate, getting only to 50 seats. What, exactly, is happening in 2026 that is driving the GOP to the worst performance since Watergate? Gas being $4.00 a gallon instead of $3.00 a gallon? I mean yeah, it's a midterm and inflation is too high. Ok. Democrats have problems EVERYWHERE, unlike anything they had in previous years. They had a rapist with the Nazi tattoo win the primary in Maine, and were forced to replace him at the last minute with the guy who came in 4th in their gubernatorial primary. Their candidate in Michigan is so repellent that his primary opponent - who got 47% of the primary vote - has endorsed the Republican. Their candidate in Alaska is likely going to face criminal charges for conspiring to defraud Alaskans of the right to vote for the candidate of their choice. Democrats everywhere are bickering and fighting. And where are the Iran War protests? Oh right they aren't happening. The "No Kings" protests are anemic. Meanwhile, Republicans have never been more institutionally behind President Trump. He's still doing rallies everywhere and pulling big audiences. That's going to lead to a D+13 environment - something we haven't seen since Watergate? Sorry I just don't believe you. It's 2026, normal people have been ignoring polls for a decade now and aren't picking up the phone for Nate Cohn. D+4, and Susan Collins and Mike Rogers defy the tide and win too because the Democrat candidates are historically bad.