Would you rather own from here

We are so back

Interesting how fast risk can shift now a days.

GM. I think Anthropic's S-1 was a clearing event. The market de-risked going into it because of doubts about the ARR numbers. The S-1 came out solid, you can build a bear case and nitpick it if you want, but psychologically it gave the market what it needed. That’s why I think R/R is skewed to the upside right now, not the downside.(i'm talking about the AI trade here) I wouldn’t price in the midterms yet. The market is mostly focused on the S1 and implications for the AI trade, we also have a fair amount of earnigns this week. For fun i also prompted codex for 5 sessions a week before election day will attach the output below. Now for names, i'm not too sure you could just long $DRAM or the Qs . but doing a quick spot check i like these charts/names (not ordered) $MU $ALAB $LITE $ARM but if other AI names have served you better maybe look to long those instead

What’s frustrating to me is the market is asking a question about financing, for the AI trae. It has nothing to do with usage or the models themselves. So it doesn’t matter if the models are improving or usage is going up. If financing is still a concern, and the return on capital is still a concern, you’re just talking past each other. You're telling the market that the amusement park is packed, but they are selling tickets for a lost. The market is questioning the business model yet you are pointing still at ticket sells. That’s what’s frustrating about seeing people bring up OpenRouter stats or another model release. Okay, great. Usage is going up. How does that address what the market is worried about? What does it cost to finance all this capacity? What return does that capacity earn? And how long do shareholders have to wait for the cash? The technology can keep improving while the economics for the people financing it get worse. Demand doesn’t have to collapse for these stocks to go down. If financing gets more expensive, projects become harder to fund, it’s a duration issue, so please stop posting P/E for semi names, i beg. And you have to pay attention to the reaction, right? If these narratives keep coming out and the stocks aren’t catching a sustained bid, maybe the market is looking in the other direction. You’re making a point, but it isn’t answering the question the market is asking. This has been going on in one form or the other all month, wish i shorted harder when i saw all this cope.

I'm seeing more fear and less cope on the TL. I'm not eager to long AI names in meaningful size still. But i guess the days you don't want to buy is the day you should so maybe inverse me. But, you know, take care of yourself. Do not try to make everything back in one day or one trade or whatever. It's really a mental game. And if you don't have your mental health, you don't have anything , stay safe.

Sold most probably selling the rest of the shorter stuff after this post. Any attempt to rally the name i fade it tbh. Thanks for playing

LOD $SPCX

take a peep at optics names today @sowingalpha

Taking the trade will be somewhat difficult sense its a cult stock. bounced off 150.86 todays current low. but i just don't see how rallies are not faded on tis name. if you are a short term trade enjoyer could be something to add to your playbook. or wait for a pop and buy some spreads+time

I know you don't short cult stocks but hear me out. All things being equal, if cost per gigawatt stays flat say 50B/GW $SPCX needs 500B to hit the 10GW target in 2027. Now, the issue is where do they get this funding from, right? It probably has to be a mixture of existing cash, cash flow, equity raises, debt. recently the market has killed the neo clouds due to cost of financing concerns. And on top of that, we have the batches of shares become sellable today 1.3B (28%) and Monday 328MM shares. i just dont see how this stock doesn't go back to 110-120 over the next month min. this feels like an $ORCL

This app is unusable on andriod

Rough action, people are using every rally to sell, distribution across many names, if you are holding anything toxic gotta take profits quickly in this env. talking about stocks here, the index looks fine as usual lol

Anyways for the ones who are new. My wife spent a fair bit of money in Korea and Japan. So we need to lock in for the amax bill

Wait wtf when did I get 2k followers i thought i had 700 still

Fills on fidelity around 58 on coreweave. @161 on nbis. Plus a quick little 1 bagger on the trading account. It all goes towards the Amex bill lol