Investor with a primary focus on finance and technology. amateurish golfer
Joined March 2023
- Tweets3.5K
- Following481
- Followers587
- Likes3.4K
$SOXX is still up 7% (maybe 4% with current AH action) on a week where literally every US semi or hyperscaler that reported results and guidance ultimately disappointed or at best met expectations. All because Anthropic reminded everyone they had an exceptional first half of the year on Monday (sans commentary on Q3 or Oct)
Some context for those thinking of buying the dip here
Congrats to everyone who wouldn’t shut up for months about how you just have to own $INTC!
Jane Street fighting for its life out there to keep this ai circle jerk going a couple more weeks until Ant IPOs and they can unload their bags
I get why $ORCL stock is catching a bid on their capex cut, but if you’re not seeing the bigger picture here that the market successfully bullied a hyperscaler into a capex cut and why that’s bad for other hyperscalers and for AI component suppliers talking about line of sight to demand to 2030, you’re blind.
AI is clearly transformative tech but the consumer agent use case could not be more obvious of a bubble
Okay i gave them too much credit, damn what 🗑️
$HOOD is going to report a pretty blah quarter, eps beat rev ~ in line, some options rev pickup against some NII and net deposits weakness but not much to write home about. They’ll try to pump predictions markets hard, but even with World Cup that will look nothing special.
I’m still short the stock, but not really as an earnings play off 20% into the print more bc i think everyone’s sleeping on regulatory risk around the Kalshi partnership that drives their only interesting and robustly growing business line (predictions markets). Best guess small drift down post earnings
$HOOD is going to report a pretty blah quarter, eps beat rev ~ in line, some options rev pickup against some NII and net deposits weakness but not much to write home about. They’ll try to pump predictions markets hard, but even with World Cup that will look nothing special.
I’m still short the stock, but not really as an earnings play off 20% into the print more bc i think everyone’s sleeping on regulatory risk around the Kalshi partnership that drives their only interesting and robustly growing business line (predictions markets). Best guess small drift down post earnings
I think most investors are missing the forest for the trees with how bad headlines like Microsoft offering buyouts to a quarter of its workforce are for AI heading into an election cycle where our pro AI president is super unpopular.
I’m in Texas and just voted and every democratic candidate on my ballot practically has a pitch on regulating AI or shutting down data centers. Breathing truth to their fears is very, very bad. Other states no different.
Lol. Rofl, even
$ANT - ANTHROPIC PLANS EARLY SHARE SALES AFTER IPO
Anthropic is preparing an unconventional lock-up structure, allowing some early investors and employees to sell shares before the traditional 180-day restriction expires.
Planned release dates include:
🔸 Day 1: Some shares eligible for sale
🔸 Day 27: Additional shares unlocked
🔸 Day 48: Further shares released
The number of shares eligible for sale has not yet been disclosed.
The key takeaway: Staggered lock-ups could create selling pressure and volatility shortly after Anthropic's IPO.
Source: Anthropic S-1 Filing
Norway is one of the most beautiful places on Earth, with a thriving economy running a massive surplus and high standard of living for an overall healthy populace.
Can’t believe this bozo is our President
Just because he’s self serving doesn’t make him wrong here. 1H of 2027 going to be a rude wake up call that ai will have defined winners and losers and the losers will surface first as capital dries up
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Sowing Alpha retweeted
Texas Special teams are consistently bad in big moments. No idea why Sark hasn’t addressed this.
Watching all of retail eviscerate their last 100 dollars on ai names as we plunge back into war as soon as this weekend is truly going to be something
