Emily Fry (@FryEmily) profile picture

Emily Fry

@FryEmily

Prev economist @resfoundation & hmtreasury | views my own

 London
resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/team/emily-fry/
Joined July 2012
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Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
As Helen says, policy can get more generous sensibly - the min wage took a steady path to reach its target of 2/3 median earnings. The triple lock's annual ratchet wasn't that. The PM's adj triple lock –rising by prices or 2.5%, & keeping the earnings link – is good policy.
Helen Miller (@HelenMiller_IFS) profile pictureHelen Miller@HelenMiller_IFSOct 1
I'm getting grumpy at claims that the old triple lock is a good way to increase the generosity of pensions relative to earnings If a higher pension is desired -> just state the level &when you want to reach it; don't just hope that at some unknowable future date it happens
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Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!
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My fantastic colleagues @resfoundation will still be tweeting the latest economic data and policy insights, so be sure to follow @hale_shale @simonpittaway @JamesSmithRF @GregoryThwaites @Camron_res @mollybroome_
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Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats. Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories. The headline number is tricky to interpret, but is the UK part of this surge?
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Non-seasonally adjusted UK goods exports to the US have jumped 31% since September 2024 (vs -1% to RoW), and are up 11% since February 2024 (vs -10% to the RoW). What are we sending? More cars? More pharma? Not quite.
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New this morning - @resfoundation latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review. 👇
Camron Aref-Adib (@Camron_res) profile pictureCamron Aref-Adib@Camron_res9 Apr 2025
New @resfoundation research out this morning from @FryEmily, @zackleather and I which uses the first ever comprehensive analysis of public service use across the income distribution to show how the Government can make public services better for low-to-middle income families.
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What should the government prioritise in the Spending Review? We built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but important. Join our discussion with @JamesSmithRF, David Gauke & Sandra McNally tomorrow 👇 resolutionfoundation.org/eve…
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation

Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation

Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with...

resolutionfoundation.org
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Alternative reading to tariffs
Centre for British Progress (@BritishProgress) profile pictureCentre for British Progress
@BritishProgress3 Apr 2025
💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage. It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇 britishprogress.org/articles…
Image from Centre for British Progress (@BritishProgress)
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Delayed UK trade data out today from @ONS shows strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%. But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
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Btw Dec'24 & Jan' 25, goods exports rose 6.3%, driven by strong export growth to Non-EU. Monthly goods data is volatile so we shouldn't read too much into this rise. Goods imports were unchanged overall, although imports from the EU fell 2.6%, while imports from Non-EU rose 2.9%
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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Good news for me: no 7am trade release tomorrow. Bad news for services trade data: no 7am trade release tomorrow.
Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) profile pictureChris Giles
@ChrisGiles_13 Mar 2025
New UK trade ALERT Make your official data so terrible, Trump doesn't impose tariffs
Image from Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_)
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Trump has increased steel & aluminium tariffs from 10% to 25% today, affecting UK exports. Some key points for British policy-makers to keep in mind…👇
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The UK’s steel export industry is small but geographically concentrated. In 2024, we exported £400m of steel & iron to the US (8% of steel/iron exports & 0.7% of total UK goods exports to the US), compared to £3.17bn to the EU (66% of total steel/iron exports).
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2024 FULL YEAR UK TRADE DATA from @ONS is out today Goods exports fell 5.1% 2023-2024, while imports declined 0.5%, reflecting weakness in manufacturing In contrast, services exports rose 3.4% Y-o-Y & services imports grew 3.3%, reflecting robust services output A thread...
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First, the UK’s quarterly performance (Q3 vs Q4 2024) was weak for goods exports in particular: falling 5% to the EU and 5.2% to Non-EU in volume terms. Goods imports from the EU grew 2.1% while they shrunk 0.2% from Non-EU. Services exports grew 1.2% and imports grew 2.1%.
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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Really interesting piece of work by the team @instituteforgov. Key insights: - Spending used to come in on budget, but since 2017/18 is commonly topped up - Certain departments (home office, transport) appear to be systematically underestimating spending needs in recent years
Thomas Pope (@tompope0) profile pictureThomas Pope@tompope016 Jan 2025
Today @instituteforgov have, alongside, @PA_Consulting , published Whitehall Monitor 2025, a review of where the civil service and Whitehall stand now. I led on analysis of departmental spending. A few interesting charts/insights: 1/ instituteforgovernment.org.u…
Whitehall Monitor 2025 | Institute for Government

Whitehall Monitor 2025 | Institute for Government

The civil service needs to change to deliver Labour's missions.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
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Monthly @ONS October trade shows a mixed picture with monthly goods trade volumes up by 0.9% driven by EU imports and services trade volumes up by 0.7% driven by exports. A short thread.
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Between September and October, Non-EU goods exports fell by 6.2%, but imports for both EU and Non-EU goods rose by 5% and 1% respectively. Services exports grew 2.5%, while services imports shrunk 2%.
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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@carapacitti sets out everything you need to know about the Government's new planning framework 👇
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The Chancellor is set to call for closer UK-EU ties today, telling Eurogroup ministers in Brussels that stronger economic links are key to boosting growth. But what are the hurdles to overcome and opportunities to seize on trade with the EU? 1/x
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Recent reports highlight challenges at, and behind, the border, affecting both finished goods and intermediate inputs for production. A complex mix of regulatory and customs documents are now needed to trade with the EU 👇
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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Nice: Improving living standards. Less nice: Waiting two years to see if you’ve succeeded.
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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Quarterly @ONS trade data is out this morning after Reeves plugged ‘free and open trade’ in last night’s Mansion House speech. But total trade fell this quarter in current prices – exports fell by 2.4% and imports by 1.6%. A short thread.
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In current prices, quarterly trade fell despite strong flows in August. Goods exports fell 3.7% to EU and 1.4% to non-EU (imports fell 3.1% and 2.7% respectively). Worryingly services exports fell 2.3% driven by a weak quarter for other business services.
Image from Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
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The big policy choice made by the Chancellor at the Autumn Budget has been to put in place the largest real-terms increase in day-to-day departmental between forecasts since the 2000 Spending Review. A thread on departmental spending…
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First, the Chancellors has committed to a front-loaded increase in day-to-day spending on public services: + 4.8% in 2024-25; +3.1% in 2025-26; +1.3% on average until 2029-30 By the end of the Parliament, RDEL will be £44.1 billion higher than at the time of the March Budget.
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Public finances data today is reminder of the decisions the Government faces next week: - Day to day overspend for 2024-25 is already £10bn - 'Unprotected' department spending still at 2016-17 per person levels - Cost £40bn+ in 2029-30 for overspend & avoid "return to austerity"
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My thoughts this morning in advance of the Budget: - Short term: 2024-25 overspend combined with public spending pressures means gov needs >20bn tax rises - Long term: goal is to restore public services and boost growth - for that Gov needs to rewrite the debt fiscal rule
Times Radio (@TimesRadio) profile pictureTimes Radio
@TimesRadio12 Oct 2024
"It's really important the government starts thinking about its investment plans right now." In its efforts to address budget shortfalls, the government mustn't forget that sustained economic growth can only be be achieved through substantial public investment, says @FryEmily.
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This ONS-Eurostat collaboration with "further potential for cooperation in...national accounts, trade, and foreign investment" makes me unreasonably excited. Currently UK data stops from 2019 onwards. Here is hoping this will expand to other data in the future.
ONS Focus (@ONSfocus) profile pictureONS Focus@ONSfocus9 Oct 2024
National Statistician, Sir Ian Diamond, has today signed an arrangement with @MarianaKotzeva marking the start of a new era of statistical cooperation between the @ONS and @EU_Eurostat. Find out more here ⬇️ ons.gov.uk/news/news/newpart…
Image from ONS Focus (@ONSfocus)
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