Emily Fry (@FryEmily) profile picture

Emily Fry

@FryEmily

Prev economist @resfoundation & hmtreasury | views my own

 London
resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/team/emily-fry/
Joined July 2012
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Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)Photo by Emily Fry (@FryEmily)
Emily Fry retweeted
Archie Hall (@ArchieHall) profile picture
Archie Hall
@ArchieHallOct 29
The same chart, one year on
Image from Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)
Image from Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)
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Truck crashes result in 160,000 nonfatal injuries and 6,000 fatalities every year in the US. Hour tracking devices - ELDs - were mandated in 2012, aiming to make trucking safer by stopping truckers driving long hours (by stopping falsification of paper records). Did they?
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🚨 New research published today Our latest report by @richmond_egyei @FryEmily @Tasos_Kitsos @DalilaRiba @GregoryThwaites &Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/ycjN6KI
Greg Thwaites, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “England is beset by stark and persistent geographic wage inequalities, with Londoners’ typical earning twice as much as those living in places like Liskeard or Cromer. It’s often assumed that people are driving these divides, but in fact place-based pay penalties are rife across England. A typical early career worker could lose out on £1,300 a year just because of where their job is located. “Policy makers at local, regional and national levels can address these divides by creating the conditions for high-paying firms to locate to their areas, while avoiding an arms race between regions in subsidies for firms. “Moving to higher-paying areas can hugely boost young people’s career earnings, but housing is a major barrier to making these moves. Policy makers should do more to bring these housing barriers down.”

ALT Greg Thwaites, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “England is beset by stark and persistent geographic wage inequalities, with Londoners’ typical earning twice as much as those living in places like Liskeard or Cromer. It’s often assumed that people are driving these divides, but in fact place-based pay penalties are rife across England. A typical early career worker could lose out on £1,300 a year just because of where their job is located. “Policy makers at local, regional and national levels can address these divides by creating the conditions for high-paying firms to locate to their areas, while avoiding an arms race between regions in subsidies for firms. “Moving to higher-paying areas can hugely boost young people’s career earnings, but housing is a major barrier to making these moves. Policy makers should do more to bring these housing barriers down.”

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What is driving Britain’s place-based wage divides? While regional pay inequality is widely discussed, what drives these divides is less well understood. Join us on Monday to discuss with @xiaoweixu_ @henrimurison Rachel Taylor, @GregoryThwaites & Ruth Curtice 👇 buff.ly/hahdelB
The pay postcode lottery What is driving Britain’s place-based wage divides? Date and time: Monday 23 June 2025 9:30 am - 10:45 am Speakers Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Greg Thwaites Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, Henri Murison Chief Executive at The Northern Powerhouse Partnership, Rachel Taylor, UK Government and Health Industries Leader at PWC

ALT The pay postcode lottery What is driving Britain’s place-based wage divides? Date and time: Monday 23 June 2025 9:30 am - 10:45 am Speakers Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Greg Thwaites Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, Henri Murison Chief Executive at The Northern Powerhouse Partnership, Rachel Taylor, UK Government and Health Industries Leader at PWC

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Despite increases over the next three years, some departments’ day-to-day budgets are still set to be significantly below 2009-10 levels by 2028-29.
Chart showing Percentage change in real-terms per person departmental expenditure limits: UK

ALT Chart showing Percentage change in real-terms per person departmental expenditure limits: UK

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Short piece out tonight on what tariff announcements mean for UK living standards (h/t @FryEmily & @GregoryThwaites): tariffs will hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect policy. Big risk is this turns into a global recession. resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
Trump Tariff turmoil • Resolution Foundation

Trump Tariff turmoil • Resolution Foundation

President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of...

resolutionfoundation.org
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Here's something a bit wacky: post April 2nd, markets are pricing in much higher 1-year inflation in America and much lower in Britain. But there hasn't been much of a divergence in priced-in central bank cutting paths. In fact, the Fed is still priced to cut more than the BoE.
Image from Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)
Archie Hall (@ArchieHall) profile pictureArchie Hall
@ArchieHall9 Apr 2025
British (blue) and American (white) 1-year inflation swaps have been on radically different journeys since April 2nd
Image from Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)
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New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better? Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
Image from Simon Pittaway (@simonpittaway)
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We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: resolutionfoundation.org/eve…. Will feature exciting, new work on who benefits from public services by @FryEmily. 👏👏👏
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation

Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation

Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with...

resolutionfoundation.org
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UK GDP fell by 0.1% in January. 📉 It's dangerous to read too much into a single monthly estimate but this is yet another disappointing data point - the 5th time in the last 7 months that GDP growth has surprised to the downside. 🧵
Image from Simon Pittaway (@simonpittaway)
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Why do ethnic minorities in the UK live in households that spend so much more income on housing than White British adults? Turns out the answer is complex. Our latest report, released today, dives into the root causes. Let’s explore the key insights👇🏾
Image from Dr madame économiste (@FeliciaOdamtten)
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I want to share some thoughts about a paper that I think is one of the papers that is super important that could have been published "better". Jason was an @LSEEcon classmate. He spent a ton of time building elements of what is now in our AIPNET. What does the paper do? 1/
Image from Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere (@fetzert)
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Why has the UK stagnated, and how can we turn things around? I’m delighted to have organised this @econ_SPE event on 5 February 2025 at the @TheRAFClub in London 📍🇬🇧. Speakers include: 📢 @s8mb 📢 @FryEmily 📢 @meadwaj 💼 Chaired by Vicky Pryce Join us for this insightful discussion! 🎟️ Register here: spe.org.uk/membership/join/ #Economics #UKEconomy #PolicyDebate
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Should the Chancellor just do nothing? If the OBR's next forecast shows Rachel Reeves breaking her fiscal rules, might her best option be to weather the storm and wait for the Autumn 2025 Budget? @FryEmily & @carapacitti discuss👇 buff.ly/4fPTi9H
Chart showing yield of 10-year gilts and US government bonds

ALT Chart showing yield of 10-year gilts and US government bonds

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How should the Chancellor respond to recent movements in the gilt market? While considerable uncertainty remains, the Chancellor is at risk of breaking her fiscal rules on 26 March. So what should she do? @FryEmily & @carapacitti discuss 5 options buff.ly/4fPTi9H

Turbulent times • Resolution Foundation

Turbulent gilt markets, a devaluing pound and speculation about the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgrading its economic forecasts is not the start to 2025 the Chancellor was hoping for....

resolutionfoundation.org
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As expected, @bankofengland keeps interest rates at 4.75% (despite cuts from the Fed and ECB). Key issue for today is what the BoE is saying about signs that inflation is proving sticky. Short thread on that to follow…
Image from JamesSmithNIESR (@JamesSmithNIESR)
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As @RachelReevesMP heads to Brussels to try to 'reset' relations with the EU to boost trade and growth, this timely report by @FryEmily & @hale_shale examines how Brexit how affected UK trade patterns, and how that should inform the government's strategy resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
Trading blows • Resolution Foundation

Trading blows • Resolution Foundation

Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled.

resolutionfoundation.org
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TRADING BLOWS: Authoritative new @FryEmily & @hale_shale report on how Britain can handle Trumponomics, which I loved working on Takeaways Goods: forget transatlantic triangulation: hug EU close Services: be opportunistic! resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
Trading blows • Resolution Foundation

Trading blows • Resolution Foundation

Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled.

resolutionfoundation.org
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Cracking report this from @FryEmily and @hale_shale. It says that *services* trade has adapted to Brexit trade barriers much better than we expected. But goods trade has been hammered by Brexit and the outlook is grim given Trump tariff threats.
Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) profile pictureResolution Foundation
@resfoundation4 Dec 2024
🚨New report published today!🚨 Trading blows looks at the UK's trade landscape post-Brexit and looks forward to how it should respond to potential future shocks. Read more here: buff.ly/3VjVEX3
Image from Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)
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And third, while a public-sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL, or "persnuffle") target creates more *room* for investment, it doesn't particularly incentivise it - thats because physical assets (generally created by public investment) are excluded from this measure.
Image from JamesSmithNIESR (@JamesSmithNIESR)
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