I write about asymmetric investments that go unnoticed, with a deep focus on emerging markets.

Singapore
Joined August 2018
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It's been almost 16 months since I started publishing my deep dives in public and 6 months since going paid. I thought it would be a good moment to pause and express my gratitude for the community that has formed around this work. When I first started writing, there were no expectations beyond wanting to think more clearly by documenting my process, and sharing ideas with like-minded individuals. The response since then has been far more encouraging than I could have imagined. I also think it’s an appropriate time to take stock of how things have been going and provide some transparency around the performance of these deep dives so far. I've published 13 deep dives to date, 10 bullish and 3 neutral. I have no interest in being bearish or short. If I don't like a business/stock, I simply don't buy it. Of the 10 bullish picks, 9 are currently in the green while 1 is in the red. One of the green positions has been closed, while the others continue to be held. Of the 3 bearish picks, all 3 are in the red as I write. On average: - Bullish picks: +38.7% - Bearish picks: -26.7% - SPY: +12.2% over the same period I must also acknowledge that I’ve been fortunate to have started this blog in the middle of a bull market, and the performance to date is by no means a reliable indicator of long-term success. I’m sector-agnostic, and these names span e-commerce, consumer discretionary, SaaS, infrastructure and more. It's still very early and I've thoroughly enjoyed the process thus far. There will definitely be drawdowns and mistakes ahead. As always, I'll stay transparent and share both the research and the outcomes, good and bad. Thank you to everyone who has been part of the journey, in particular to paid subs who continue to place their trust in an anonymous person from a tiny country in Southeast Asia. I hope to continue rewarding that faith by producing high-quality research grounded in facts, not hyperbole. ❤️
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Muse just launched in Singapore today! Fellow Singaporeans who want to try it, you can consider using the code below so we both get 1 billion tokens :)
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Emerging markets are being hit with one piece of bad news after another, and investor sentiment is understandably terrible. However, historically some of the best buying opportunities have emerged when the headlines look worst.
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$SE Pinduoduo has entered Southeast Asia aggressively in the past few months, and one of the most common questions I've gotten is what impact that might have on Shopee. I wrote a comprehensive piece discussing this: gabgrowth.com/p/is-pinduoduo…
Replying to @GabGrowth
What are your thoughts on pinduoduo threats to their shopee business? Buyer seems to start buying from pdd which might decrease the revenue growth.
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Anthropic's CFFO was $3.93B in H1 2026 and they have $114B in cash on balance sheet, plus will raise another couple hundred billion from the IPO. Yeah, I think they will be fine.
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Brazil sell-off is a huge overreaction IMO. I think many people were probably overweight EWZ expecting a Bolsonaro win, as the prediction markets were pointing towards. All that being unwound as we speak and we get a Black Monday. Opportunity to pick up great companies.
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Fwiw, my belief is that the reason we've seen such a huge sell-off, is not the fact Lula won. Instead, it is the manner he won. I don't like talking politics here so won't expand, but you can look deeper if you're interested.
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This should not be a surprise to anyone who is familiar with the Neocloud space. Many Neoclouds are former BTC miners with perhaps the worst management possible. They will not survive the inevitable consolidation.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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$AXON Body 5 just launched! - 25x more processing power for AI - 20% more battery life than prev gen - Enhanced video, improved connectivity - 4 additional speakers (front-facing) - Near-focus camera
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Gab retweeted
$SE Looking at Sea's latest quarterly results, one thing that stands out is just how quickly all three of its core businesses continue to grow. Shopee, Monee and Garena delivered YoY revenue growth of 48.2%, 58.9% and 33.5%, respectively, numbers that are particularly impressive considering the scale these businesses have already reached. However, what is equally interesting is that Adj. EBITDA growth has been substantially slower, coming in at 12.2%, 12.8% and 16.7%, respectively. At first glance, this might appear concerning. After all, we would ideally want to see profitability growing faster than revenue as these businesses scale. Instead, the opposite is happening, suggesting that Sea is currently experiencing negative operating leverage. But I think it is important to distinguish between a business that is struggling to grow profitably and one that is deliberately re-investing to accelerate growth. For Shopee, management continues to invest in initiatives such as logistics, buyer incentives and customer engagement to strengthen its competitive position. Monee, meanwhile, is expanding its lending operations aggressively, which introduces additional funding requirements and credit-related expenses. Both businesses are pursuing opportunities that could potentially deliver considerably greater earnings power over time. Of course, the question is whether these investments will ultimately generate attractive returns. There is no guarantee that today's elevated expenditure will translate into higher margins tomorrow, particularly given the competitive nature of e-commerce and the risks associated with consumer lending. However, at 17.5x forward earnings, the market is pricing in little potential growth and investors are paying a relatively modest multiple for a company whose underlying businesses are still expanding at extraordinary rates. If Sea can eventually moderate its reinvestment intensity while sustaining healthy revenue growth, earnings growth could accelerate considerably. And importantly, it would not necessarily require revenue to continue growing at 40-50% annually for this to happen. In my view, that potential transition from revenue-led growth to earnings-led growth is one of the more compelling aspects of Sea's long-term investment thesis.
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$SE Looking at Sea's latest quarterly results, one thing that stands out is just how quickly all three of its core businesses continue to grow. Shopee, Monee and Garena delivered YoY revenue growth of 48.2%, 58.9% and 33.5%, respectively, numbers that are particularly impressive considering the scale these businesses have already reached. However, what is equally interesting is that Adj. EBITDA growth has been substantially slower, coming in at 12.2%, 12.8% and 16.7%, respectively. At first glance, this might appear concerning. After all, we would ideally want to see profitability growing faster than revenue as these businesses scale. Instead, the opposite is happening, suggesting that Sea is currently experiencing negative operating leverage. But I think it is important to distinguish between a business that is struggling to grow profitably and one that is deliberately re-investing to accelerate growth. For Shopee, management continues to invest in initiatives such as logistics, buyer incentives and customer engagement to strengthen its competitive position. Monee, meanwhile, is expanding its lending operations aggressively, which introduces additional funding requirements and credit-related expenses. Both businesses are pursuing opportunities that could potentially deliver considerably greater earnings power over time. Of course, the question is whether these investments will ultimately generate attractive returns. There is no guarantee that today's elevated expenditure will translate into higher margins tomorrow, particularly given the competitive nature of e-commerce and the risks associated with consumer lending. However, at 17.5x forward earnings, the market is pricing in little potential growth and investors are paying a relatively modest multiple for a company whose underlying businesses are still expanding at extraordinary rates. If Sea can eventually moderate its reinvestment intensity while sustaining healthy revenue growth, earnings growth could accelerate considerably. And importantly, it would not necessarily require revenue to continue growing at 40-50% annually for this to happen. In my view, that potential transition from revenue-led growth to earnings-led growth is one of the more compelling aspects of Sea's long-term investment thesis.
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It's brutal, but this is the reason Singapore remains a thriving economy and country.
👴🏻“Rupiah is the reflection of the economic situation…” 👩🏻‍💼: “So the Rupiah at this level, reflects…” 🤣🤣🤣 Sc: youtu.be/ZYt6dzd59I8?si=FeuO…
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Chinese short dramas are a fascinating space. In July 2026, a new AI short drama was released in China every 36 seconds. Some interesting statistics: - AI short drama releases on Douyin (TikTok) surged from 655 in August 2025 to 74,313 a year later, an increase of over 100x. - A team of just 5 people can now produce a 60-episode AI drama in a week, at less than 10% of the cost of traditional live-action production. - Yet, only 1.3% of new AI dramas generated enough views to reach the industry's estimated break-even threshold. As content becomes increasingly commoditised, distribution, discovery and audience retention arguably become even more valuable.
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“The idea that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has pioneered a new business paradigm is silly” There’s just so much to learn from history, if you’re willing to.
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Published my latest article on $SE Sea Limited: Potential Monee IPO Why Sea Might Be Willing to Give Up 20% of Its Most Promising Business gabgrowth.substack.com/p/sea…
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