GalacticTP

"SNIPPING BITCOIN'S LEFT TAIL"...a short alpha-packed tale by Quinn Thompson of @lekker_cap. Microstrategy holds a special place in my heart. Last year I became the resident $MSTR guy on Twitter which led many of you to press the 'follow' button and start listening to my market views. So let me provide some more Saylor alpha. Here's another good thread but if you search $MSTR tweets from me you'll find dozens. xitter.gq/qthomp/status/17400154… Let's dive in. At the time of writing this, $MSTR's premium over BTC is approx. +50% since its last convert issuance in September. Apologies for the expletive, but this is fucking insane. There are a number of reasons why the premium has rapidly gone up, including the newly launched levered ETFs. The key takeaway here is that Saylor has a ton of room to issue more equity/converts to buy more Bitcoin. But why hasn't he done it already? Earnings blackout. After the bell on October 30th, $MSTR releases Q3 earnings and in the following days its blackout period will end. This clears $MSTR to pick back up where it left off on capital markets transactions, namely ATM equity sales and convert issuance. My guess is by year end, $MSTR will get off another $2-3B of issuance and subsequent BTC purchases under current conditions. Assuming you're with me thus far, the next point is critical for tactics. There is a very short window between the end of $MSTR earnings blackout and the election. We also know that the options market is implying a fair amount of volatility for BTC's price around the election, with many suspecting upwards of a +10% move under a Trump victory, and possibly a negative move under a Kamala win. If Saylor is looking to purchase multiple billions of BTC over the coming months, the election has massive implications. A +/- 10% swing in BTC prices could result in hundreds of millions of gain/loss on their purchase price, so if I am Microstrategy I am doing as much as humanly possible to develop a view on the election outcome. This leaves us with the distribution of outcomes. If they believe Trump will win, they should jam as many BTC purchases in pre-election as possible. And if they believe Kamala will win, they may wait and buy the expected dip. There's obviously tons of second and third order implications here resulting from the game theory that I will let you ponder. But now that I've led the horse to water, my work here is done and I will let you drink. Just don't forget the title as that's where all roads lead back to - Bitcoin's left tail is removed.