Forecasting, geopolitics, and prediction markets. Podcast: @LongTelegramFM. Support us: https://xitter.gq/t.co/diGZN3LgdE
Joined September 2020
- Tweets596
- Following24
- Followers866
- Likes771
GeoVane retweeted
Some scattered thoughts and rapid predictions on the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War: thecategoricalimperative.sub…
🔮 Forecast: The Russo-Ukrainian War is set to end this year (~80% odds) and Ukraine will lose it (~95% odds).
GeoVane retweeted
🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates
🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…
GeoVane retweeted
🆕 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza? w/ @D1Wheeler and @ezra_brodey
🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…
GeoVane retweeted
"Along with other layoffs, @Kalshi has not renewed contracts for certain political consultants and has not followed through on some of its plans to engage Washington-based think-tanks in an effort to enlist support for election markets."
coalitionforpoliticalforecas…
GeoVane retweeted
I just launched a @ManifoldMarkets about whether trials of K5 Night Security Robot by @iKnightscope will result in a purchase order by the #NYPD. What do you think?
manifold.markets/AndrewEaddy…
GeoVane retweeted
Returning to the #JCPOA was always very low likelihood. But as I have said, the U.S. has already shifted #policy with #Iran. We have a tacit understanding with them now and have been easing our grip on the country via economics and #diplomacy for months.
aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12…
GeoVane retweeted
We can't wait for @ManifoldMarkets' Manifest Conference this fall on #forecasting and #prediction markets! manifestconference.net
In anticipation, we collected our best relevant content ft @Kalshi @metaculus @smarkets @PredictIt + more to get you ready ⤵️youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
GeoVane retweeted
The #NATOYouthSummit will features a training course on 'Verifying #OSINT' by @MikeHilliardAus @TheRedLinePod, @AndrewJEaddy @GeovaneVideo @ThirdImageMedia, @johnsnonsense @intintrigue. Join as a Virtual Delegate: wm.edu/2023NATOYouthSummit @internationalwm @NATO #FakeNews
GeoVane retweeted
Our philosophy is we'll post wherever but we won't change our content to do so. But...we'll also only post where it's worth our time.
We just signed up for @rumblevideo because it has enough users now to make sense: rumble.com/v2obg2a-what-happ…
@chrispavlovski #geopolitics
GeoVane retweeted
Our team @GeovaneVideo did a morning-after recap of the #election in #Turkey. Let us know if you want to here us talk about the upcoming elections in Greece as well! Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics heating up
youtube.com/watch?v=PLPMVDwY…
GeoVane retweeted
If you're at #Consensus2022 anon come to the Big Ideas stage on the expo floor.
Starting in 15 mins we got @balajis talking about why "BTC > NYT," later @default_friend on pseudonymity, @thegoddisk on meme analysis & the @base_rate doods on prediction markets.
Gonna be epic.
GeoVane retweeted
Forecasting is a critical skill for humans to navigate an uncertain world. Prediction markets can help us get better at it, argue @ClayGraubard and @andrew_eaddy, who will present on the Big Ideas stage at #Consensus2022.
trib.al/McMhYcM
GeoVane retweeted
"Barring belief in preordination, we live in a probabilistic world. Forecasting is something we all do, whether or not we know it. It is a tool, it is a process, and critically, it is a skill to generate information."
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
GeoVane retweeted
"Forecasting produces good information, forces accountability and rejects sophistry, sensationalism and biased thinking. It is a perfect check on traditional media outlets and a potential antidote to polarization."
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
GeoVane retweeted
"Forecasting is also difficult, time consuming and underpaid. Adoption will require many approaches, and...prediction markets are one of the most hopeful by bringing…incentives and market efficiencies into the forecasting process.”
coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/…
GeoVane retweeted
Updated prediction (in progress): Mostly unchanged I think, but more confident in the 12.5% world than the 8% one.
I know SCAAFs who were >= to my probability but on a shorter duration and also ones who are lower. Robert (@rdeneufville) was at 1% in the episode 👇
This was recorded on Apr 27, but an excellent forecaster like @ClayGraubard putting a 12.5% probability on the use of nuclear weapons as a result of the war in Ukraine was ever so slightly alarming...
This is from our new show — 80k After Hours.
80000hours.org/after-hours-p…
GeoVane retweeted
Great podcast about forecasting. @robertwiblin talks with two great forecasters (and my friends 🙂) @ClayGraubard @rdeneufville about (super)forecasting in general, forecasting related to the war in Ukraine. They also discuss their views about nuclear risks.
This quoted post is unavailable.