Global Macro Focused Strategist & Trader;Former Equity Head of a Dutch Bank;cross asset experience in EM+Developed Markets;Market Wizard Anthony Saliba's ex TA
New York City
Joined October 2009
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Exclusive subscriber posts with deeper market commentary, additional context behind selected public posts, and more of what I’m watching across equities, rates, currencies, commodities and global macro.
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This looks interesting, I hope that the website works fine tomorrow: 🇺🇸 2026 U.S. House Live Results · 218 seats needed for majority. Track live precinct returns & forecasts on midtermslive.com/?chamber=ho… #Elections #Midterms #USMidterms2026
Polymarket is pricing a democratic sweep; Senate is at 76% now; House is at 95%; I'm not so sure about the Senate but it may happen of course; we may see some volatility in the markets tomorrow & the day after....
Cool:
I am giving this to my students in class today, @bpmehlman...thank you. Great election night cheat sheet.
About the House:
New @CookPolitical: our final House ratings are live, including five more shifts towards Dems in #FL04, #NC07, #NC14, #TN09 and #VA05. Don't miss @ercovey's hour-by-hour election night guide: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
Some updates from the polls...
New @CookPolitical: our final Senate ratings are live. We're projecting a Dem gain of 3-6 seats, and #MISEN moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
Pre open thoughts: Market bounce is normal as there were no strikes this weekend, we have the Israeli election tomorrow, I think $AAPL is vulnerable for the rest of the even though we may see some rallies, so I carry a small $AAPD position, I think it may be a choppy day but so far bonds are trading ok & oil is down; those 2 will be important for direction, stay nimble
I booked my gain at $10.58 in $AAPD ; AAPL can tank further but I will take it...
Today's AI/semi/Tech related pullback is indicating that some funds are unloading because of a potential democratic sweep in the elections & also last week's blow up degrossing is not over; the damage should be big; the risk cutting is still going on in certain institutions
This was timely; $SPX went down 100+handles from here now at 7545
and back to $SPX 7611 just like that; good scalping day.; it looks like choppiness may go on as some funds are reducing exposure; stay nimble or just observe for the rest of the day..
We go back & converge to the intraday support $SPX 7625; a good day for scalping ; rest of the day may be choppy
1st day of the month regardless of the market condition brings mechanical buying by the funds & along with the sharp oil price drop helps the broad market; $SPX levels are important, so it's good discipline to scale within the levels so that profit is protected; we don't know the outcome of the elections & further geopolitical & circular AI(ie $ORCL) implications for the coming weeks; enjoy the move today but don't forget to book some or all for the rocky week ahead.. $SPY
