GraInformant

The more oil prices stay capped and financial markets hold up, the less incentive there is to end the war. Everyone is betting on TACO, but that very expectation is exactly what’s pushing it further away. Meanwhile, in the real world, the Strait remains closed and supply is just bleeding out. Given the projected drawdowns in both waterborne and onshore inventories, late March and mid-April are likely going to be the next major inflection point. At the end of the day, a quick restoration of flows is the only real fix. But the more we tell ourselves "it's fine, nothing’s happening" today, the higher the odds that this absolute dumpster fire of a reality just drags on. It’s a total paradox. The clock is ticking, and eventually, the physics of the market will catch up with reality. I honestly believe you guys need to get this. The outcome is pretty much baked in at this point based on how the timeline is playing out. Today’s rhetoric is just killing any incentive for a better tomorrow. In just a matter of days, we’re going to be staring down an unfixable situation—long after everything is already broken. #oott #iran