The @NYSenDems will likely be at 48 seats when all ballots are counted. That means in 1 cycle, they expanded their majority by almost 20%, taking out 7 of 22 Republican incumbents, decreasing their conference by 32%. In 2016, we were in the minority. Hard work pays off.
Uh, this is all breaking news to him?
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Harry Giannoulis retweeted
It looks like New York Democrats will wind up with their largest majority in the state Senate since 1846
Amazing. Reporters couldn't find a single relevant Republican to call out Trump. DeSantis flitting about like he usually does, trying to find an angle, everyone else dead silence.
After Midterm Drubbing, Trump and Republicans Start Pointing Fingers nytimes.com/2026/11/04/us/po…
Trump isn't complicated. This is all about a 80 year old man staring at his mortality. Building edifices, breaking rules to create multi-generational wealth, naming museums, even glorifying younger men's healthy bodies. He thought he could bend time but is realizing no one can.
"This suggests that his communications team have entirely lost control of the president and what he is doing."
Analysis from @Stone_SkyNews after Donald Trump chose to make a speech about the reflecting pool in Washington DC on the final day before the midterms.
Everyone said @SenSchumer sucked. But his top recruits are all winning? He shouldn't get credit because its all random and he is just a doddering fool? No, he's still the smartest guy in the business and quality candidates trust him. Recruitment is a key function of leadership.
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:
From me and @RuthIgielnik
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
We really need to start giving more respect to Trump's ability to communicate a message. He told everyone "act like I am on the ballot." So, everyone has.
Hopefully one day all these ugly people will get old and be laying in their excrement in a hospital bed, and a direct care worker from a shit house country will laugh at them, instead of cleaning them up. But they won't, they will just do their job with a smile. Fuck you Trump.
Polls don't predict turnout, they model it. They're used to track messaging/trends. 2 week old polls can't predict E-Day results in close races. Nothing can. The media shouldn't misrepresent the predictive value of data, then claims polls are faulty when the results differ.
Saudi Arabia made an extra $60 billion in profits since they had Trump start a war with Iran, forcing the closure of Hormuz. They got their money back 30 fold. We spent $43 billion on the war. Plus the increase in gas prices. As usual, Trump isn’t much of a deal maker.
"It's a totally false story."
President Donald Trump shuts down allegations involving his son-in-law Jared Kushner after a reporter asks about a new book claiming Kushner had access to roughly $2 billion in accounts funded by Middle Eastern leaders.
Trump calls the allegations "fake news," rejecting the claims as Kushner also publicly denies the account.
Ted Cruz must have missed the intelligence briefing outlining that the CIA has been working with segments of the Muslim Brotherhood, and at times directly funding them, since the 1950's as a stop gap against communist influence in Europe and the Middle East.
Secretary Kennedy is exactly right.
I believe Abdul El-Sayed is Muslim Brotherhood. He's repeatedly defended the organization, and his own sister has acknowledged their family's longstanding support for it.
Now imagine him in the U.S. Senate, with access to our most sensitive classified intelligence.
That is an unacceptable national security risk.
Greeks like to protest. Cabbies, butchers, students ... They often have protests about other protests. If Republicans are hoping European "unrest" is the path to victory in the mid-terms, keep on trying a new message a week.
Thousands march through Greek capital to protest high cost of living as European protests spread trib.al/8j3nH6Y
Milk makes scrambled eggs smoother, if that is how you like them. If you like a heartier dish, replace ricotta with crumbled feta, skip the milk. I add chopped sun-dried tomatoes. Plus fried potaties. Either way, go with any recipe that Ina recommends, you will never go wrong.
Ina Garten is starting a new chapter. The Barefoot Contessa shows us her apartment, which doubles as the set of her new podcast, and shares a recipe for perfect scrambled eggs. 🔗 on.wsj.com/4jppUN3
Amy is the rightful heir to the Ramble @venetianblonde and we ain't going back until she comes back. Fuck Brian Parillo.
rollingstone.com/music/music…
hey @MensJournal did your reporter Alex Hoegler actually do a stitch of research on the turmoil and lawsuits over Levon Helm's Barn before you guys ran this shameful puff piece?
In the words of the great Greil Marcus, what is this shit?
mensjournal.com/news/the-mus…
Putin pulling out all the stops in France and Italy trying to give his boy Trump a winning message 2 weeks before the midterms.
Kimberly Guilfoyle should be on the lookout for Slavic looking men with dart guns and only eat food she cooks herself. That is my two cents of advice.
President Trump signed an executive order waiving a sweeping sanctions package against Russia in a move that was condemned by Ukraine.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) called the move “sucking up to Vladimir Putin.” wapo.st/4jlX0gN
