Hugin (@Hugin_1977) profile picture
Joined February 2023
Photo by Hugin (@Hugin_1977)Photo by Hugin (@Hugin_1977)Photo by Hugin (@Hugin_1977)Photo by Hugin (@Hugin_1977)Photo by Hugin (@Hugin_1977)
“Tore O. Sandvik confirmed Norway’s plans to continue large-scale purchases of Ukrainian-made drones to meet the needs of the Defence Forces of Ukraine.” Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Replying to @bjornberger
🚨🚨🚨 Our new study reveals how Russia covertly organized interviews with 500+ "useful idiots" across the globe We confronted them to see how they ended up participating in one of the biggest Russian state info-ops since the end of the Cold War. This is what we found: 1/13
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Når skal Norge gjøre det samme??
BREAKING: Sweden is reintroducing internal border controls for six months due to the deteriorating security situation in Europe. The controls will be in place from November 12, 2026, to May 11, 2027. The Swedish government justifies the decision by pointing to the worsening security environment following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has brought increased hybrid threats and hostile actors into the Schengen area. The Swedish Police Authority will decide where and how the checks will be carried out.
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Replying to @NRKno
🚨Here is an urgent appeal from Ukrainian journalists to their colleagues around the world. I was asked to share it, and I am more than happy to do so. ‼️Turning a blind eye to what is happening in Ukraine today opens the door to the same horrors being repeated in our own countries tomorrow. #wariscoming #youmaybenext
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Replying to @iceye_global
FINAL: SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses   New 5-page institutional brief & 60s 3D SGP4 orbital reconstruction with Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. @streetwiseprof | Data & Forensics: RAB @LibertyLynx Pages 1-3 & 3D animation below; Pages 4-5 in Post 2; full 5-page PDF link in Post 3 🧵👇   As Craig Pirrong's counterfactual framework establishes: The Russian intercept is not the smoking gun. The failure to maneuver is.   1. The Sprinting Satellite Paradox & -96.64% Target Freeze (Page 1): Between Oct 13 and 24, 2026, Russian counterspace weapon COSMOS 2612 (68762) converted a 5-month, ~170 m/s co-planar trailing option into a 0.759 km sub-kilometer hold against U.S.-licensed radar satellite ICEYE-X36 (59103), which guides Ukraine's autonomous deep strikes on Russian oil refineries without SpaceX links, at the exact moment SpaceX throttled Ukrainian military Starshield terminals (-23.0% USF air-defense hits).   In June 2026 (with no Starlink alert), ICEYE-X36 defeated a Russian approach by dropping 0.500 km, generating 71.08 km/day secular drift (3.62 km/h in the sprint frame), exiting Russia's 3.0 km braking box in 49.7 to 60.78 minutes, blowing past Russia's 12 km or under onboard KTZ sensor in 3.31 hours, and causing a 103.7 to 118.5 km miss.   In October, as COSMOS 2612 fired a -2.2184 km (370.8x perched shock / 449.1x fit jump) burn to sprint 14.29x faster (400 km/day / 278 m/min), ICEYE-X36's evasion collapsed by 96.64% (to 16.8154 meters or less, P3 = 3.363%). 

 * Why? The Alert Itself Was the Weapon: SpaceX maintained a 0.401 km (0.711 km Oct 16) public GP collision alert via STARLINK-35856 (67013) despite holding internal v3/v4 forecasts 4.80x to 5.00x wider (1.925 to 2.003 km) and withholding autonomous Starlink clearance (M_Starlink = 0, W_X36 = 1, W_COSMOS = 0), legally freezing X36 under David Goldman's 2023 FCC Condition 16 (DA 23-797).   * Rational Russian exercise across a 363.7 km blind gap required ex-ante certainty of K = (E1, E2, E3). Across all 5 capability levers, SpaceX is the sole actor (N = 1): Posterior = 99.893% to 99.978% (Tier A floor; 1 in 3,748 to 17,841) and up to 99.999% (Tier B K-set).   2. Four-Way Tracker Blindness & What NRO/USSF Saw Live (Page 2): 

 * Public Catalogs (18th/19th SDS): Blind for 21.824 hours (363.7 km unobserved closure) on sprint (k6 to k7) and 19.385 hours on brake (k9 to k10, -382.71 km SGP4 delta).   * Russian Ground Radars (SKKP Krona/Okno): Bounded by Earth curvature at 541 km to a 22.8 degree (2,530 km) horizon cone, blind for 8 to 10 hours/day (80% to 94.5% of the orbit) with zero Americas/Pacific coverage.   * The Sole Unblinded Commercial Panopticon: Only SpaceX's Stargaze (31,000 star trackers, 40M+ daily tracks, 17M associated, 850 sightings/day, 7 to 15 min global custody / 99.73% 10-min hit rate) and sub-1-minute Space Safety portal (Appendix A & Section 4(b), with Chinese operators onboarded Oct 6 & 16) had real-time visibility across the blind gap, while NRO & USSF watch floors watched live on the classified High Accuracy Catalog (HAC / Space Fence / Vantor WorldView NEI), realizing 348 Starshield satellites in orbit (245 NRO spy satellites) sit on the same SpaceX bus.   3. Contracted Capacity Is Not Combat Availability & The 6-Way C2 Collapse (Page 3): 

 * Combat Output = Sensor Availability x Link Availability x Platform Availability x Permission Arriving Before Mission Window Closes (T_permission <= T_mission).   * The Two-Pronged Pincer: SpaceX weaponized FCC Condition 16 to freeze the Sensor Layer in orbit and a Commercial ToS ($500 liability cap) to blind the Transport Layer on the ground.   * 70-90 km/h Civilian Baseline vs. 4 Collapsed Alibis: Civilian Starlink in Ukraine was already capped at 70 to 90 km/h since Feb 2026 (S. Beskrestnov). The Oct 13-24 101 to 161 km/h gate hit DoD-contracted military Starshield links (-23.0% USF hits; Oct 19 Nova Vodolaha strike). Musk cycled through 4 contradicting alibis in 12 days (blaming DoD/POTUS Oct 14 -> ToS offensive loophole Oct 24 -> "sympathy for poor Russian conscripts" Oct 25 -> Russian ASAT/debris fear Oct 26), while resolving the exact same "weapon ToS" objection on U.S. LUCAS suicide drones in Iran via a 5x price hike ($5,000 to $25,000/mo)!   * COCO vs. GOGO ($8.8B+ Sign-Off Chain): Under Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO/OTA) deals signed off by Pete Hegseth, Stephen Feinberg, CTO Emil Michael, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, Gen. Michael Guetlein, Col. Ryan Frazier, Clare Hopper & NRO's Dr. Chris Scolese, taxpayers fund the satellites while SpaceX's civilian NOC retains 100% of the physical thruster and velocity kill-switches.   (Continued in Post 2: Pages 4 & 5: Statutory Breach Matrix, CTO Emil Michael's $7M-$35M OGE Clock, the $19.5B SpaceX Bailout Loop, Iran Round Two Magazine Depletion & Subpoena Schedule. Full PDF link in Post 3 👇) $SPCX $TSLA
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Replying to @FRHoffmann1
“Defence startup Destinus has built more than 1,750 Ruta cruise missiles in Europe and now produces ‌more cruise missiles in a month than Europe did in a year before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it told Reuters. The Dutch-headquartered company said monthly output of its Ruta missile had reached nearly 300 units. Chief Executive Mikhail Kokorich said he expects Destinus from next year to be able to meet demand across Europe, including Ukraine, for turbojet engines in the roughly 1.5-kilonewton thrust class used in cruise missiles. He ⁠said the company was already producing such engines in series and supplying them both for its own missiles and to other manufacturers… The company told Reuters it had begun production of the larger Ruta Block 2 missile, ‌which ⁠is designed to carry a 250-kg payload and travel more than 700 km. Unlike the current Block 1 version, the missile is designed to be stored, transported and launched from the same container, simplifying logistics for larger stockpiles… Kokorich also contrasted Destinus' China-free supply chain with wartime production in Ukraine, saying access to Chinese suppliers would make manufacturing ‘cheaper, faster, easier’ but that Destinus used no Chinese components.” reuters.com/business/aerospa…
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Replying to @CGrimsgaard
Replying to @CptAllenHistory
Don’t forget this too: During the 1948 war, Transjordan's Arab Legion and allied forces captured areas of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Approximately 10,000 to 17,000 Jews were killed, captured, or forced to flee from communities such as Gush Etzion, the Jewish Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem, and outlying settlements like Atarot and Neve Ya'akov. Jordanian Rule (1948–1967): Following the war, Jordan officially annexed the West Bank in 1950. For the 19 years that Jordan controlled the territory (until the Six-Day War in 1967), the West Bank and East Jerusalem had virtually no Jewish inhabitants
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Replying to @CGrimsgaard
Why do your college professors leave out the part where the Arabs used starvation as a method of war against the Jews in 1948 to murder or expel them from Jerusalem? The Arabs sealed the Jewish Quarter, cut off their water supply, and attacked every supply convoy attempting to bring food and water. Rations ran out, and the Old City was surrendered on May 28.
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Replying to @DarioAmodei
Replying to @lrozen
AIs have the last few months been used to identify a large number of cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Someone should use the latest AI models to investigate how Elon may have manipulated 2024 elections. @sama @AdamKinzinger @PhillipsPOBrien @TimothyDSnyder
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Replying to @elonmusk
@elonmusk Important background on Zelenskyy — Russia decided to invade instead of making a deal.
Here is an article from 2019, Very funny to look at hindsight but also a reminder that despite it being true Zelenskyy was relatively soft on Russia compared to Poroshenko, Putin still decided to invade nevertheless
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Klarer norske politikere å lære av dette? @Bysheriffen
Vill applådera 👏 @Polisen_Sverige och regeringen för sina insatser som vänt brottsutvecklingen! 👇
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Hva er situasjonen i Norge?
Turkiska asylsökande uppges köpa brottsutredningar mot sig själva i hemlandet för att kunna beviljas asyl i Tyskland. Enligt uppgifter betalar vissa asylsökande från Turkiet för att få verkliga rättsprocesser inledda mot sig i hemlandet, i syfte att använda dessa som bevis för politisk förföljelse när de söker asyl i Tyskland. Korrupta åklagare ska mot betalning inleda brottsutredningar som därefter registreras i det turkiska rättsväsendets officiella databas UYAP. På så sätt skapas autentiska myndighetshandlingar som kan användas för att styrka asylansökningar. Enligt rapporteringen marknadsförs tjänsterna via TikTok och Telegram. Kompletta paket, som även omfattar människosmuggling till Tyskland, uppges kosta från 6 000 euro och uppåt. Det vore högst intressant att fråga Migrationsverket om liknande upplägg har upptäckts även i Sverige. Förekommer manipulerade rättsprocesser och äkta men bedrägligt framtagna myndighetshandlingar i svenska asylärenden? Och vilka möjligheter har Migrationsverket att upptäcka och kontrollera den här typen av avancerat asylbedrägeri? welt.de/politik/ausland/arti…
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Følg @Russisk_Royk ! En av de virkelig gode norskspråklige twitter-kontoene, som motarbeider russisk propaganda med fakta og logikk. @bjornberger @AageB @kncarlsen @StephanAJensen
«Zelensky gjør ferdig jobben Stalin påbegynte, det ukrainske folk utryddes.» Skriver en fyr på Facebook, før han forteller at ukrainsk ungdom driter i om flagget er blått eller rødt. Under Stalins regime døde millioner av ukrainere under Holodomor i 1932–1933. Sovjetmyndighetene gjennomførte også omfattende deportasjoner, politiske utrenskninger og undertrykkelse av ukrainsk kultur. Og hvem er det som i dag okkuperer ukrainske områder, deporterer ukrainere og forsøker å underlegge seg landet? 😏 Men mannen har altså kommet fram til at Zelenskyj viderefører Stalins arbeid. Hvordan han vet at ukrainsk ungdom gir blaffen i hvilket land de bor i, får vi heller ikke vite. Det ukrainske flagget er for øvrig blått og gult. Man skulle nesten tro at litt grunnleggende historiekunnskap hadde vært nyttig før man begynte å sammenligne Zelenskyj med Stalin. Men kommentarfeltet er nesten enda bedre. Torgeir Bjelland har og en lenger historie Det skal vi komme tilbake til under her . 👇🏻 #russiskpropaganda #desinformasjon #ukraina #russland
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Replying to @Senterpartiet
Eight years after Denmark merged 239 councils into 66, places that lost their town hall had 26% fewer children and 35% lower house prices. In 2027 Denmark folded 271 municipalities into 98, merging 239 of them into 66 larger ones. The basic idea (which makes every finance ministry happy), is that bigger councils spread fixed costs over more people, they cut duplicated jobs and deliver the same services via economies of scale. Earlier Danish research backed that up, finding administrative costs per head fell after the mergers. But each new municipality kept only one town hall. Every other former council lost its administrative heart, and a bunch of economists wanted to know what happened to the places left behind. They used Danish registry data covering every resident and every firm from 1996 to 2015, mapped onto 8,530 small neighbourhoods of at least 150 households each. They then compared the 2,187 neighbourhoods whose municipality lost its town hall with neighbourhoods in municipalities the reform left untouched. Because the untouched ones skew urban (Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense), the authors built a weighted blend of them that tracked the losing areas closely before 2007, so the comparison is like for like. The first domino is obvious. Neighbourhoods that lost their town hall shed about three full-time admin staff each, roughly a third of what they had, and the drop never reversed. Then the losses spread to services nobody had voted to cut. School staffing fell by 17% on average across the nine years after the reform, and public-sector jobs overall by 21%. Private-sector jobs followed, down 16%, as the local economy lost the steady trade that a council and its staff bring. People responded the way you'd expect. Each affected neighbourhood lost about three more working-age residents than it gained every year, around 0.7% of its population. The number of children fell 13%, which tells you young families were among the first to go. Those who stayed travelled 10% further to work, and their wages rose by just 1%, barely compensating for the extra time on the road. House prices fell 15% on average. By 2015 the gap had widened. Against comparable untouched areas, public employment was down 38%, school staffing 36%, private jobs 24%, children 26% and house prices 35%. The results hold when the comparison group changes. Comparing losing municipalities with neighbours that kept their town hall, or with the second-largest partner in the same merger, still shows clear damage, and so does using the number of council seats to predict which places lost out. The geography is uneven tho. Neighbourhoods near Denmark's four biggest cities saw residents drift into those cities. Further out, people moved to whichever town had kept the town hall, and those winners added public-sector jobs. So a reform meant partly to slow urbanisation ended up feeding big cities in some places and building up regional hubs in others. link to full article: doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbaf038
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