@ian_maps i map you 🗺️ kim seokjin stan | Yours iton💜 Electoral Cartography and Data, Congressional Tracker
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Mapping the 2016 Vice Presidential Election
One of the biggest electoral showdowns in modern Philippine election history was the six-way Vice Presidential race between a Congresswoman and five Senators in 2016. Regional strengths are clearly visible.
🗳️🗺️🇵🇭
iam ian 🇵🇭 retweeted
NEW: My midterms cheat sheet features 670+ races—up and down the ballot, & why they matter.
Now it's in PDF, printable form!
Save it, print it, give it to your kids to color the Senate map, & use it your worksheet on election night.
Find it here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
Fox just moved both Brown and Acton from Tossup -> Leans Dem
Senate South Carolina: Likely GOP -> Leans GOP
Mississippi: Solid GOP -> Likely GOP
Democrats to retake the House 223-195, 17 Tossups
Taking the average of the two recent polls (2026 Quarter 3) fr Pulse Asia & Momentum Research
Duterte 54%⬇️2
Robredo 39%⬆️2
+/- vs. previous average
Some movements in the major island region toplines: significant gains for Robredo(+4) in Luzon, with Duterte down (-4). Duterte is also down in Visayas (-5).
This will be updated with the incoming OCTA Research and WR Numero polls to seal Quarter 3.
The polling aggregate is now updated! Senate aggregate to follow🗺️
sites.google.com/view/ianmap…
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
Momentum Research releases their October national survey, their third poll this year. @momentumph_
Key results in this thread⬇️Expanded & Head-to-head matchups - topline:
President - Expanded List
🟩Duterte 44.3% (-1.5)
🟪Robredo 19.4% (-0.1)
🟥Tulfo 11.1% (-2.2)
🟪Aquino 4% (+0.1)
🟩Go 4% (+1.1)
🟪Hontiveros 3.3% (+1.2)
🟥Teodoro 1.5% (new)
🟥Remulla <1% (-1)
🟪Pangilinan <1% (0)
Hindi ko alam 9%
Hindi sigurado 4%
+/- vs. August 2026
Narrowed field with 3 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 50.6% (-4.9)
🟪Robredo 35.3% (+4.3)
🟥Teodoro 4% (August - Remulla 3.5%)
Narrowed field with only 2 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 53% (-5)
🟪Robredo 37% (+3)
Narrowed field, Baste Duterte replaces Sara Duterte
🟪Robredo 45.7% (new)
🟩Baste Duterte 43.2% (new)
For Vice President - Expanded list
🟩Padilla 20% (+5)
🟥Tulfo 18% (-7)
🟩Go 14% (0)
🟪Aquino 10% (+2)
🟩Marcoleta 9% (0)
🟪Pangilinan 7% (+4)
🟪Hontiveros 6% (-2)
🟩Marcos Imee 3% (0)
🟥Gatchalian 2% (-2)
🟥Teodoro 2% (new)
🟥Remulla 1% (0)
🟥Dizon 1% (+1)
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre @CleveArguelles
*Bong Go should be 3.5%
If you nominally combine the expanded list by faction/bloc:
🟩Pro-Duterte 48%
🟪Opposition 27%
🟥Pro-Marcos/Administration 13%
On recalled 2022 vote, Presidential vote was Marcos 58% Robredo 23% Pacquiao 8%
VP: Duterte 69% Pangilinan 11% Sotto 8%
If we unskew, could be a couple of points gained by opposition, and same but decrease for Duterte candidates. (Caution: Unskewing should not be unilaterally from recalled vote)
Checked the respondent characteristics and it well-representative of the population.
Some catches: In the expanded list, Sen. Tulfo at 28% and FVP Robredo at 25% are tied as the leading picks among pro-Marcos voters, followed by Duterte at 12%, Bong Go at 11%, Hontiveros at 7%, and Teodoro at 6%.
Among Independents: Duterte 32%, Robredo 21%, Tulfo 14%, Aquino 5%.
In a three-way race (among pro-Marcos voters): Robredo is at a near-majority 48%, Duterte at 28%, while presumed administration bet Teodoro is only at 15%.
Very close among Independents, with a 5-pt gap: Duterte 43%, Robredo 38%, Teodoro 4%.
For head-to-head matchups:
Pro-Marcos voters back Robredo by more than 2:1: Robredo 61%, Duterte 25%. Against Baste Duterte, it’s Robredo 71%-21%.
Among Independents, the same 5-pt gap: Duterte 46%, Robredo 41%. However, if it’s Baste Duterte, Robredo leads Independents by double digits, +13%.
Pro Duterte and the Opposition
Senators Padilla 39%, Bong Go 24%, and Marcoleta 16% are the main VP picks among pro-Duterte voters. If Baste replaces Inday, his support is at 80%, considerably lower. Robredo receives 15% in this scenario (among pro-Duterte voters).
A majority of opposition voters support Robredo in the expanded list, with 52%, followed by Duterte at 12%, Aquino at 10%, Hontiveros at 7%, Bong Go at 6%, and Tulfo at 5%.
In the matchups, Robredo is at 81-84%. The top VP picks from the opposition bloc are all senators: Bam Aquino at 29%, Kiko Pangilinan at 21%, Raffy Tulfo at 18%, and Risa Hontiveros at 17%.
@momentumph_ @DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
Momentum Research releases their October national survey, their third poll this year. @momentumph_
Key results in this thread⬇️Expanded & Head-to-head matchups - topline:
President - Expanded List
🟩Duterte 44.3% (-1.5)
🟪Robredo 19.4% (-0.1)
🟥Tulfo 11.1% (-2.2)
🟪Aquino 4% (+0.1)
🟩Go 4% (+1.1)
🟪Hontiveros 3.3% (+1.2)
🟥Teodoro 1.5% (new)
🟥Remulla <1% (-1)
🟪Pangilinan <1% (0)
Hindi ko alam 9%
Hindi sigurado 4%
+/- vs. August 2026
Narrowed field with 3 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 50.6% (-4.9)
🟪Robredo 35.3% (+4.3)
🟥Teodoro 4% (August - Remulla 3.5%)
Narrowed field with only 2 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 53% (-5)
🟪Robredo 37% (+3)
Narrowed field, Baste Duterte replaces Sara Duterte
🟪Robredo 45.7% (new)
🟩Baste Duterte 43.2% (new)
For Vice President - Expanded list
🟩Padilla 20% (+5)
🟥Tulfo 18% (-7)
🟩Go 14% (0)
🟪Aquino 10% (+2)
🟩Marcoleta 9% (0)
🟪Pangilinan 7% (+4)
🟪Hontiveros 6% (-2)
🟩Marcos Imee 3% (0)
🟥Gatchalian 2% (-2)
🟥Teodoro 2% (new)
🟥Remulla 1% (0)
🟥Dizon 1% (+1)
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre @CleveArguelles
President Marcos received his lowest approval rating this month, with only 32%, or one-third, approving, while disapproval hit 60s.
July - August - October polls
President Marcos
🟩 Approve: 41 - 39 - 32% [-7]
🟥 Disapprove: 55 - 57 - 60% [+3]
He is now disapproved of in all major island regions. Luzon, the holdout during their August poll, is now underwater at 41 - 51%🟥. This could be the biggest factor in why the entire administration bench for 2028 is getting eclipsed.
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Vice President Duterte remains majority approved although this month is also her lowest, down by 4% since August.
VP Duterte
🟩Approve: 58 - 61 - 57% [-4]
🟥Disapprove: 36 - 32 - 35% [+3]
The Vice President significantly lost support in Metro Manila, she is now down underwater.
🟩42% (-13)🟥53% (+11)
She also dropped big time in Visayas
🟩55%(-8)🟥33% (+3)
---
Senate Pres. Win Gatchalian's approval shed lightly this month
🟩Approve: 40 - 42 - 40%
🟥Disapprove: 30 - 28 - 32%
For the Senate race, Momentum polled more than 50 names. 10 potential candidates received at least 20% preference, and 16 more in the 10-20% range.
Take note that for the Presidential, VP and Senate races, only a handful have formally declared their candidacies.
Chart comparing the August-October support of candidates hitting at least 10% support: Mix of re-electionists, former Senators, former Senate candidates, Cabinet and executive dept, and local politicians
iam ian 🇵🇭 retweeted
This is how you keep your organization from atrophying: Brian P. Stack takes nothing for granted. He's got 200 volunteers out today turning out early voters in an election where only Cory Booker and Register of Deeds and Mortgages Jeff Dublin have a major-party opponent.
What province of city next? and what year?🗺️
If you remove #Lucena (an independent city), the rest of #Quezon province will only be a 1-pt. win for Duterte against Pangilinan 33-32%, while Sotto at a close third with 28%. This is the closest province in the VP race (Antique: Duterte+2.7%). The catch is Pangilinan did not win any of the seven vote-rich cities+municipalities, although he balanced it out with the rural vote in the southern and municipios connecting to Camarines.
Robredo had a wide 53-36% lead against Marcos. @DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
iam ian 🇵🇭 retweeted
Registrei esse momento histórico, que vai ficar gravado na memória de tanta gente que lutou pra que esse momento acontecesse!
Nós viramos! NÓS VENCEMOS! Que nunca mais duvidem da força do povo! O BRASIL É DOS BRASILEIROS! ❤️⭐️
Obrigada a quem esteve do meu lado nessa luta! ❤️
#eleições #pt #eleiçõespresidenciais #lulapresidente2026 #lula
iam ian 🇵🇭 retweeted
This is going to get a lot of use over the next week.
NEW Crystal Ball: The great @JeffESchapiro on the key House races and overall dynamics in VIRGINIA, where Democrats may come close to achieving the gains that their failed gerrymander sought centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
If you remove #Lucena (an independent city), the rest of #Quezon province will only be a 1-pt. win for Duterte against Pangilinan 33-32%, while Sotto at a close third with 28%. This is the closest province in the VP race (Antique: Duterte+2.7%). The catch is Pangilinan did not win any of the seven vote-rich cities+municipalities, although he balanced it out with the rural vote in the southern and municipios connecting to Camarines.
Robredo had a wide 53-36% lead against Marcos. @DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
Going to the Visayas🗺️What are the islands that pique your interest? political stronghold, competitiveness, dramatic swings, or simply a place with a riveting voting pattern
Get your maps or just explore <-> drop a message/comment for the link to the interactive board.
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre