Father of two great boys, Husband to a great wife. Youth Football Coach, arm chair political, sports, and technology pundit. Expect typos!
Charlottesville, VA
Joined March 2008
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I lost my best friend on Thursday. I wrote a little something on Instagram. RIP @Sqweak97
instagram.com/p/CPPiZURBbXq/ā¦
The Crystal Ball moved our home district from Leans R to Toss-up today as part of our one-week-out update:
centerforpolitics.org/crystaā¦
Tazwell you say
Procedural grounds you say
My my who could have ever guessed the SCOVA would have set a precedent.
New: A Tazewell, Virginia, judge will hear from
The Founding Freedom Law Center on Nov. 13. The FFLC seeks an injunction preventing certification of the election result for the reproductive freedom amendment on procedural and misleading-language grounds. @CourthouseNews
My favorite chart is back.
Iām still a massive fan. I still watch it, but in part due to obligation and wanting to complete it.
I rewatch the golden age often. I defend the hell out of seasons 11-27ish
Past that, it has its momentsā good ones from the past few seasons. The lazy narrative of season 10 is just that lazy.
VA-05 is a Toss-Up per Sabatoās Crystal Ball.
Former Democratic Congressman @tomperriello is challenging incumbent Republican Congressman @RepJohnMcGuire.
My god
But if you followed politics long enough, you really do understand. People donāt understand statistics or percentages. Actually, you can say that about the weather as well.
You know what? Never mind. People really donāt understand.
This is why I think Nate gets way too much hate. Like him or hate him, heās been directionally correct almost every single time.
12 and 22 are the best examples.
Listened to Nate Silver on Ezra this morning. One of the least popular things I could do on this website is defend Nate Silver, so challenge accepted.
His "vibes" have been directionally correct in every Election. In 2012, he fought against the polling unskewers making claims that Romney would win based on undersampling of Republicans.
In 2016, his model was famously FAR more bullish on Trump than any others. He was the only modeler who understood the possibility of correlated polling error.
In 2020, he repeatedly emphasized the higher than usual uncertainty due to the pandemic.
In 2022, he fought back against pollsters (NY Times!) basically ignoring their own data to buy into the Red Wave.
In 2024, he said that even though his model was 50/50, his gut said Trump would win.
All in all, a better record than anyone else on Election Twitter.
The decline of Disney has been greatly exaggerated
This is a lot of if then then what.
I see the GOP pouring Money into āsafeā R districts and states. Thatās not fighting; thatās worry. Putting money into places like VA 1/2 makes sense. These were always going be toss-ups and you need the margins. Money to 5? Thatās spend you shouldnāt have to do.
Dems are bedwetters in the best of times. 2016 fundamentally changed the way they show confidence.
Scoop: Both parties just got back new internal polling that shows a tightening map in the core House battlegrounds - as Republicans are still struggling to shore up a raft of redder seats.
Senior Dems are trying to set expectations about how big of a majority they might win. Rs still face serious problems in North Carolina, South Texas and more.
More inside the map w/ @andrewjfhoward >
politico.com/news/2026/10/23ā¦
šššš
A week out spending big money to defend the 5th.
Man what do the internals look like.
News: the NRCC is making its first coordinated buy with Rep John McGuire (R) in #VA05
This is a Trump+12 seat where McGuire faces ex-Rep Tom Perriello (D)
Keith Fosterš„ retweeted
The Cheesecake Factory stuff is a really good encapsulation of conservative discourse during the Obama era for folks not old enough to have experienced it. Endless whining and mind-loss over something they wouldnāt even notice if someone else said it. Eight years of that!
Everyone @BrianDevine made the obvious meme before I did it seems.
Here is his credit for a recycled internet joke. My apologies for not crediting you with an old recycled meme.
