Pragmatic MAGA Populist. Team Trump!! VanceGuard 2028!
Joined February 2023
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Midterm Predictions:
My model focuses on macro trends +state electorate makeup+EV data, & is updated every Friday
Current run:
221D 214R (-1 GOP seat vs last wk)
74.34% chance(-0.25 vs last wk) that GOP gets b/t 203-222 seats
53R 47D (GOP lose NC, win MI)
(Same vs last wk)
Vote for @KenPaxtonTX let’s send Troon Talafreako to the unemployment line !!!!
Jake Snake retweeted
We asked Minnesota to revalidate all their high-risk providers.
The result?
30%, almost 1/3 of all the people providing services in Minnesota, could NOT be validated.
Jake Snake retweeted
Ilhan Omar was so confused by marriage to 'brother' she crossed out her own name twice on official application trib.al/2qi7kOx
Jake Snake retweeted
Democrat operatives admitted that Ilhan Omar probably married her brother, and now a civil war is breaking out among Minneapolis Democrats.
Just incredible content.
Jake Snake retweeted
James Talarico's verified email address was used to create an account on an adult hookup site. The email was revealed through a data breach from 2011 👀
The fact his lawyers were prepared with a pre-drafted reply they provided within 35 min means they were well aware of the potential PR nightmare.
WILD.
EXCLUSIVE: JAMES TALARICO'S ATTORNEYS CONFIRM HIS EMAIL WAS USED TO CREATE AN ACCOUNT ON ADULT HOOKUP SITE FLING.COM!
An email address Talarico's attorneys confirm belonged to and was used by the Texas Democrat Senate candidate appears in Fling.com's 2011 data breach — username "mohawk787," created December 26, 2010, just before Talarico started teaching sixth graders.
The profile's listed interests: "FETISH," "GROUPSEX," "SEXUAL RELATIONS," "ONLINE FLIRTING."
The record is marked "email_validated: Y" — meaning the address was verified rather than left at the default setting.
The same email appears in Myspace and Zynga breach records. The IP address used to create the Fling account also shows up on an online video game record tied to an email associated with Talarico's sister — a match the attorneys did not dispute.
Talarico's lawyers responded 35 minutes after Townhall reached out with a four-page letter claiming, without substantiation, that a hacker created the account using his email, and noting the birth date and ZIP code on the profile don't match his.
Read the full Townhall report below 👇
Jake Snake retweeted
🚫 CLAIM: Today, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it destroyed a U.S. military sea drone in the Strait of Hormuz. This claim is FALSE, just like many other IRGC lies this week.
✅ FACT: All U.S. military unmanned surface vessels in the Middle East are accounted for, including a squadron of advanced sea drones on patrol in the Strait of Hormuz supporting CENTCOM's defensive layer.
Jake Snake retweeted
Framing Michigan Senate
People have a baseline already for this race that is being ignored.
In 2018, the state had just flipped two years before to Trump, narrowly and with less than 48% of the vote. This was eight years ago, with a lot of the red only written in pencil and not yet etched in stone.
Dem Debbie Stabenow ran for a fourth term and faced John James. She only won by 6.5% as the incumbent - and even won Macomb County - key to the Trump realignment.
Now the seat is open. Whitmer would have won it easily. The two bland female candidates this year would have held it as well, but given the Stabenow baseline with a high Dem generic ballot in the House, I’d say 3-4 points.
Now there is the El-Sayed issue. The reds are much redder, he’s not winning Macomb, and he has a voting bloc problem with multiple factions of the Dem party he needs to consolidate.
From a glance at things I can’t see him with a ceiling or more than 2. And if Detroit turnout looks like Cleveland and Toledo turnout from right down the road he may not even be in the game.
Jake Snake retweeted
Scott Bessent says:
- 115 fraudsters have been charged
- 75 convictions
- Nearly 3K subpoenas issued
Huge numbers.
Jake Snake retweeted
Wedding parties across the country will be like…
“The maid of honor was so drunk. Like, Amy Acton drunk.”
“Whoa, that bad?”
“Yeah. That bad.”
Jake Snake retweeted
🚨 #AZ01 SWING RACE EARLY RETURN UPDATE
Despite county returns breaking nearly D+5 in the latest batch, swing seat #AZ01 comes in with R+5, moving the district even MORE to the right than it was before or was in 2022.
The GOP turnout operation here is really something.
@jayfeely @HaydenHornAZ @Taylorfromaz #ChaseEveryVote – at Phoenix, AZ
🚨 NEW MARICOPA BALLOT DROP
Democrats lead this drop D+4.4, bringing the overall Maricopa returns to R+0.6 so far.
If you haven't voted and brought at least three friends or family to vote, do so TODAY!!!
#ChaseEveryVote
Jake Snake retweeted
BREAKING: Feds charging the Orange County, CA woman who was caught on video fatally crushing a puppy with her vehicle after baiting it into the wheel’s path with dog food. She will now face up to seven years in federal prison if convicted.
Today we are announcing federal charges against Hanh Minh Nguyen, 75, of Anaheim, under the PACT Act for luring a puppy under her minivan with food, then deliberately driving over and killing him.
President Trump signed the 2019 PACT Act into law, expanding previous federal legislation by making severe forms of animal cruelty federal felonies.
Nguyen faces up to seven years in federal prison if convicted. She is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Jake Snake retweeted
Ohio has gotten much redder again overall today as expected. Being a weekday and all and nearly every county running until 7pm this week really boosts rural numbers.
Dem lead has fallen to JUST 4 points, now 2.8% below the EV lead for Dems in 2022.
Jake Snake retweeted
Dr. Oz highlighting a fraudster who hired untrained workers overseas, billed for more than 20 hours of work per day, and charged taxpayers for services that were never provided.
Jake Snake retweeted
This story keeps on getting funnier
Ilhan Omar's Ex-Husband, Rumored to Be Her Brother, Says He's Gay tmz.com/2026/10/30/ilhan-oma…
