Jordan Lucilus

🚨 NOVEMBER WILL BE THE BLOODBATH MONTH. HERE IS WHAT THE MARKET IS IGNORING. Most people think November is just another month. Look at what is stacking up at the same time. The US midterm elections are on November 3. Prediction markets give Democrats about 85% to flip the House, and the Senate is close to a coin flip. The market has to price a divided Washington from zero, and it hates doing that. The Iran war is still not over. Brent hit a four-year high of $116.72 on October 23, and the IEA has called this the largest oil supply shock ever. Oil above $100 hits every company and every household. The Fed already hiked in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and a December hike is priced near 80%. The 10-year yield is above 5%, near multi-decade highs. Stocks were built on cheap money, and the money is not cheap anymore. Inflation is not cooling. CPI is 3.7%, PCE is 3.6%, and producer prices jumped 1.3% in one month. At the same time, September payrolls were only 29K and real wages are falling. Prices go up, hiring slows down. The Fed cannot fix both. Crypto just took its own hit. Binance was hacked for about $6.3 billion, the biggest crypto theft in history. About $3 billion was frozen, deposits and withdrawals were suspended, and BTC dropped about 5% below $77K. Binance says it will cover all losses, but trust in exchanges and crypto apps is under pressure too. Earnings are starting to crack. Meta raised its capex plan to $135-145 billion and missed on profit. Amazon and Intel both fell after their reports, and Intel lost almost 30% in one day. The AI trade is under pressure. Nasdaq had a -2.6% day on October 22, its worst since June, and CoreWeave fell about 30% in the first half of October. Even the biggest AI IPO is being repriced. Anthropic is reportedly heading to a listing before late November, and talk of its valuation has moved down from about $2 trillion toward $1.5 trillion after growth slowed. Elections, war, rate hikes, high inflation, a crypto exchange hack and a cracking AI trade. All in one month, with the market already bleeding. Everyone is watching the Fed. Almost nobody is watching the whole picture. Protect your capital and watch your leverage. Over 12 years in these markets. I post the risks before they hit the screen. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: CHICAGO PMI MISSES THE FORECAST AS STOCKS ALREADY BLEED. Chicago PMI came in at 55.3 vs 56.0 expected. The previous reading was 58.8. Manufacturing is still above 50, so it is still growing. But it is slowing for the second month in a row after the September jump. Stocks are already falling today: S&P 500 -1.25%, Nasdaq -2.3%. A December hike is priced near 80%, and the market is not getting relief from the Fed. Stay alert. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE BANK OF JAPAN HOLDS AT 1.25%, BUT ONE BOARD MEMBER JUST VOTED TO HIKE. THE DECEMBER BOMB IS TICKING. The BoJ kept rates unchanged. The vote was 8-1. Takata wanted 1.50% right now. Tokyo core inflation is 2.6%, in line with the forecast and well above the 2% target. A December hike is priced near 80%. The BoJ also more than doubled its ETF selling pace from January 2027. That is extra pressure on Japanese stocks. When Japan hikes, the yen carry trade can unwind fast. Global markets can feel it. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE ECB HOLDS RATES AT 2.50%. THE HIKE IS NOT CANCELED, IT IS JUST DELAYED. The ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged, as most economists expected. But euro area inflation is 3.8%, almost double the 2% target. In the latest Reuters poll, 64 of 73 economists expect a hike in December. Lagarde press conference starts at 13:45 UTC (14:45 CET). Her words on December matter more than the hold. Euro, European stocks and crypto can move fast. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE US ECONOMY JUST BEAT ON EVERYTHING. THAT IS THE WORST NEWS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. GDP Q3: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Previous: 2.2% Jobless claims: 194K vs 199K expected. Previous: 194K PCE inflation: 3.6%, as expected. Previous: 3.4% Strong growth. Almost no layoffs. Inflation going UP, not down. The Fed has zero reason to stop, and a December hike is priced near 80%. In this market, good news for the economy is bad news for stocks and crypto. PCE in line is not a relief, it is 0.2 points higher than last month. Rate cut hopes are dead. Stay alert. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 INFLATION, GDP AND JOBLESS CLAIMS ALL HIT AT 12:30 UTC. BLOODBATH OR RELIEF IN 60 MINUTES. Today at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US PCE Price Index YoY (Sep) Expected: 3.6% Previous: 3.4% IF PCE > 3.6% → MARKET DUMPS IF PCE = 3.6% → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF PCE < 3.6% → MARKET PUMPS September CPI was 3.7% and PPI jumped 1.3% in a month. A hot PCE would confirm that inflation is not cooling, and it keeps the December hike on the table. Also at 12:30 UTC: - GDP Q3 advance. Expected: 3.2%. Previous: 2.2% - Jobless claims. Expected: 199K. Previous: 194K Strong GDP and low claims plus hot PCE is a bad mix for risk assets. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING THE FED ANNOUNCES ITS RATE DECISION TODAY AT 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET)! IF HOLD (3.75%-4.00%) → MARKET PUMPS IF HIKE (4.00%-4.25%) → BLOODBATH CME FedWatch has the hike odds at about 10%. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold. But the decision is only half of the story. Warsh press conference starts at 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET). On September 16 the hike was fully priced, and stocks still fell because of his tone. A December hike is priced near 80%. If Warsh confirms it, even a hold can turn ugly. ALL EYES ON 18:00 UTC!! 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS TODAY, ONE DAY BEFORE THE FED. LAST MONTH IT HIT A 12 YEAR LOW. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9. IF confidence > 81 → market dumps IF confidence = 81 → nothing changes near-term IF confidence < 81 → market pumps In September the index fell 6.7 points. Consumers said prices and fuel costs were their biggest worry. Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 6.1%, and 68% of consumers expected higher interest rates. The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). A stronger consumer gives the Fed more room to hike in December. A weaker one gives it a reason to wait. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BRENT JUST HIT $116.72, A SIX MONTH HIGH. THE IRAN WAR IS NOW A TAX ON THE WHOLE WORLD. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, up about 6% this week. WTI is above $103. Why now: → Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites. Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters → Two tanker attacks confirmed near Hormuz this week → Traders expect the US to resume strikes on Iran Oil is still moving through Hormuz, so a big part of this jump is fear. That can change fast in both directions. What it does to the world: → US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone. US CPI is 3.7% → Euro area inflation is 3.8%, with energy up 18.8% → The IMF says Asia and Europe are hit the hardest → US, German and Japanese 10 year yields are at their highest since 2007, 2009 and 1996 → The Fed, the ECB, the BoJ and Korea are all tightening, and Canada may hike next week The IMF also warns that high oil prices could last into 2027, even if the conflict ends soon. Higher oil means higher inflation. Higher inflation means higher rates. Higher rates mean pressure on stocks and crypto. The Fed decides on October 28. If it talks tough on energy prices, the market will notice. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.