Ph.D. Economist from @Penn. My goal is to make economics research accessible and entertaining for non-economists.
Joined February 2019
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Jordan Peeples retweeted
I wrote a long blot post on the economics of AI, prompted by two great workshops (Windfall and NBER), and me leaving OpenAI for METR:
TLDR: we driving in the fog.
1. There is no standard model of AI’s economic impact. Economists have been using a wide range of assumptions to model AI’s impact, there is no standard framework. There seems to me an opportunity for ambitious economists to propose deep models of AI’s impact. A promising line would concentrate on AI’s ability to find low-dimensional representations of the world.
Jordan Peeples retweeted
The fertility decline is everywhere in the world today. The reason involves greater female autonomy and a mismatch between the desires of men and of women, from @PikaGoldin nber.org/papers/w34268
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Examining the recent slow growth in manufacturing productivity, from @EnghinAtalay, Ali Hortaçsu, Nicole Kimmel, and @ChadSyverson nber.org/papers/w34264
Jordan Peeples retweeted
👋New paper!
How do hours worked vary across countries, historically, and why?
We construct a new microdatabase covering 160 countries, including long time series in 86 countries, to revisit these questions. 👇
Using labor force surveys from 160 countries to build a new microdatabase on hours worked covering 97 percent of the world population to explore working hours determinants, from @amorygethin and Emmanuel Saez nber.org/papers/w34217
Jordan Peeples retweeted
This YouTube channel “The Structural Econ Guy” by Tyler Ransom is awesome. Not just about econometrics but also about code management.
youtube.com/@structuralecong…
Jordan Peeples retweeted
As more data come in, the contractionary impact of tariffs is becoming increasingly clear. Our empirical work with Sujan Bandyopadhyay and Octavio Vera Bower—unfortunately—anticipated this.
Jordan Peeples retweeted
An examination of the distinctive trajectory of American industrialization up to 1870 fresh perspective on American industrialization up to 1870, from @jlrosenbloom nber.org/papers/w34225
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Simple economics is damn good at making real-world predictions.
Yet, if you only read oped columns, you’d think economics was a failure. Our models are too abstract. Our predictions are always wrong.
I push back in the @WSJopinion 👇
Jordan Peeples retweeted
I've seen several economists discussing the EJ Antoni nomination centering his PhD institution, number of pub, or citation count. This is disappointing, as several of these posters are well aware of econ's elitist, clubby nature where those signals are used *despite* someone's skills or qualifications. Someone without a PhD who has worked in the guts of BLS surveys for years may be far more qualified than someone with a PhD from Harvard and dozens of top-5 publications, and thousands of citations!
There is plenty of grossly wrong analysis in his past X posts. Those are completely sufficient evidence to make your point.
Jordan Peeples retweeted
It wasn't a 75% revision. It was a 0.161% revision. The revised job estimate for June is 159,466,000 and the original was 159,724,000
When I was running a major company P&L, if I made a 75% correction on the last one I published, I'd have been fired immediately.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The adjustment was .161%, not 75%. The BLS has long updated data based on the best possible information. bls.gov/opub/btn/volum…
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Education circles compare achievement results across demographic groups (race, income, etc.)
But what doesn’t get a lot of attention? How the lowest-performing students are being left far behind
Gains among students in the 25th-percentile began to fall rapidly around 2015
Jordan Peeples retweeted
If only there were some sort of mechanism to signal to people which skills are relatively scarce...
Mike Rowe: “We’ve been telling kids for 15 years to learn to code.”
“Well, AI is coming for the coders.”
“It’s not coming for the welders, the plumbers, the steamfitters, the pipefitters, the HVAC, or the electricians.”
“In Aspen, I sat and listened to Larry Fink say we need 500,000 electricians in the next couple of years—not hyperbole.”
“The BlueForge Alliance, who oversees our maritime industrial base—that’s 15,000 individual companies who are collectively charged with building and delivering nuclear-powered subs to the Navy … calls and says, we’re having a hell of a time finding tradespeople. Can you help?”
“I said, I don’t know, man … how many do you need? He says, 140,000.”
“These are our submarines. Things go hypersonic, a little sideways with China, Taiwan, our aircraft carriers are no longer the point of the spear. They’re vulnerable.”
“Our submarines matter, and these guys have a pinch point because they can’t find welders and electricians to get them built.”
“The automotive industry needs 80,000 collision repair and technicians.”
“Energy, I don’t even know what the number is, I hear 300,000, I hear 500,000.”
“There is a clear and present freakout going on right now. I’ve heard from six governors in the last six months. I’ve heard from the heads of major companies.”
@mikeroweworks
Jordan Peeples retweeted
The academic job market is bad and will likely get worse. Research job openings have dropped sharply, just as economists laid off from government roles are flooding the market. Current PhD students should have candid conversations with their advisors about their prospects. If prospects aren’t strong, pivot immediately toward networking and interview prep. A major advantage of the PhD is that you can start working even before graduation—use this strategically, because the formal, structured market is in tatters.
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Low fertility is the result of shifting adult priorities, likely driven by changing norms, evolving opportunities and constraints, and broader social forces, from @kearney_melissa and @phil_wellesley nber.org/papers/w33989
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Yes, continuing unemployment claims have edged up, but the US labor market remains remarkably stable across most indicators in 2025. Context matters: this is a slight softening, not a crisis. My analysis in @Forbes explains why the full picture is more nuanced #EconTwitter 🧵
Jordan Peeples retweeted
Well, *this* economist says:
1/ It isn’t just college grads. It’s high school grads in their late teens too.
2/ AI’s role in this is massively overblown relative to… the boring old business cycle
Jordan Peeples retweeted
As of 2024, over 90% of Americans have air conditioning and that includes 98% of new single-family homes.
This compares to 19% penetration in Europe as of 2022.
Jordan Peeples retweeted
icymi, openai also open sourced how their deep research prompt rewriter works + the full prompts today
you can now build your own deep research agent - with full o3/o4-mini deep research quality - in 20LOC
if you're a fan of Claude Research they ALSO dropped how to add multiagents with MCP support lmao
