@Journalancer

Political Analyst with @Predictbook

Joined May 2009
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13Media
Traders price Gadi Eisenkot at 63% to become Israel’s next prime minister, with Netanyahu at 23%. But leading the market or winning the vote doesn’t guarantee becoming the PM. predictbook.co/analysis/isra…

Election markets favor Eisenkot as Israeli head to polls

Israelis are voting today, while Polymarket traders favor Gadi Eisenkot over Benjamin Netanyahu. Can he turn that lead into a government?

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Polymarket gives Cindy Hyde-Smith an 87% chance of holding Mississippi’s Senate seat, while a poll shows her just 3 points ahead of Democrat Scott Colom. Trump is campaigning for Hyde-Smith, and Obama backs Colom. Can the polling gap move the market? predictbook.co/analysis/trum…

Trump and Obama put Mississippi Senate race in focus

Trump is rallying behind Cindy Hyde-Smith as Obama backs Democrat Scott Colom. Polls show a tighter contest than markets suggest.

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Brazil’s election exposed a major gap between prediction markets and the polls. Traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 72% chance of winning just three days before Lula won 51.79% of the vote. predictbook.co/analysis/braz…

Brazil election result exposes prediction market mispricing

Polls pointed to a tight runoff, but traders heavily favored Flávio Bolsonaro. Now, Lula’s victory raises questions about market confidence.

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Serbia’s election shocked prediction markets. The Student List won 52.65% of the vote, while Vučić’s United Serbia took 39.22%. Now traders are turning to the next question: who becomes prime minister? predictbook.co/analysis/serb…

Serbia election surprise shakes up prime minister markets

A student-led movement has delivered a historic blow to Serbia’s longtime political heavyweight, and now markets face the question: who takes over?

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Polymarket gives the US-Iran ceasefire a 79% chance of holding through Oct. 31, but just 37% by Nov. 30. With reports of potential renewed strikes after the US midterms, are traders pricing in a new escalation window? predictbook.co/analysis/iran…

Iran ceasefire odds dip as US midterm elections near

October 31 ceasefire odds have rebounded, but markets see growing risks beyond the US midterms. Are traders pricing in a new window for strikes?

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Serbia’s student-led protests have challenged Vučić for nearly 2 years. But Polymarket gives his camp 70% to win the most parliamentary seats, despite a poll putting the student list ahead. Can street momentum translate into votes? predictbook.co/analysis/serb…

Serbia protests grow, but ex-president Vučić leads markets

A massive student rally puts Serbia's protest movement in the spotlight, but markets give Aleksandar Vučić's camp a clear edge before Sunday's vote.

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Peace-talk odds jump, but ceasefire expectations lag. Polymarket traders see a 74% chance of Russia-Ukraine talks by Dec. 31, but just 21% for a ceasefire. Getting to the table is one thing. Ending the war is another. predictbook.co/analysis/russ…

Russia-Ukraine peace talks gain odds, but not a truce

Traders are warming to renewed diplomacy after Putin's signal, but a meeting is a long way from ending the war. Can Trump's deadline change that?

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Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 78% to win Brazil’s runoff, but only 41% for a victory by under 4 points. Polls put him just 1 point ahead of Lula. Why the gaps? predictbook.co/analysis/braz…

Brazil runoff markets favor Bolsonaro, but not a blowout

Flávio Bolsonaro leads the election market by a wide margin, but traders expect a much tighter result in the margin market. Why is there a gap?

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Three elections. One bet. Just 13%. Polymarket prices a Bolsonaro win in Brazil, Netanyahu returning as Israel’s PM, and Democrats taking the US Senate at a combined 13%. Is this combo being overlooked, or are the odds justified? predictbook.co/analysis/mark…

A three-in-one overlooked election combo sits at 13%

Three elections, three uncertain outcomes, and one under-the-radar market. Could traders be overlooking a watch-worthy political combination?

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Ohio backed Trump by 11 points in 2024. Now, Polymarket gives Sherrod Brown (D) a 65% chance of reclaiming his Senate seat, with Jon Husted (R) at 36%. Affordability is a key battleground. Could Ohio become another GOP stronghold in play? predictbook.co/analysis/ohio…

Ohio Senate odds turn blue as Brown pulls ahead of Husted

Sherrod Brown is now favored to reclaim Ohio’s Senate seat, as a shifting midterm map put another Republican stronghold in play.

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Trump endorsed Netanyahu, but markets barely budged. Eisenkot leads at 48%, Netanyahu trails at 31%. Is Trump backing a familiar partner ahead of a new phase of the Iran war, or simply trying to sway Israel’s election? predictbook.co/analysis/trum…

Trump Backs Bibi, but Should Markets Weigh the Iran Theory?

Markets barely reacted to Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu, as Eisenkot keeps the lead. The question arises: Is the endorsement connected to Iran?

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France is imposing curfews as unrest spreads, but traders see just an 8% chance of a state of emergency by Oct. 31, down 42% in two days. With $144K+ traded, will the calm hold, or will emergency powers come into play? predictbook.co/analysis/as-f…

As France burns, traders bet on a state of emergency

Curfews are now in force as France struggles to contain violent unrest. Still, traders stay skeptical that the crisis will trigger emergency powers.

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Naftali Bennett told Israelis to trust Polymarket over polls. Now his odds are slipping. The market prices former PM at 13%, while Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu at 47%. Will Trump’s endorsement change the odds? predictbook.co/analysis/benn…

Bennett touts Polymarket as odds shift in Israel race

Naftali Bennett dismissed polling data on live TV and pointed to Polymarket as a better measure. But his odds have slipped from their recent high.

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France’s 2027 presidential market is heating up as unrest grips the country. Marine Le Pen leads at 47%, with $153.6M in volume. Traders put the odds of a state of siege by year-end at 4%. Will the crisis shift the race? predictbook.co/analysis/fran…

France markets top $900K as election and unrest collide

France’s presidential election market dominates trading as protests fuel political uncertainty and bring government resignations back into focus.

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Traders give the CLARITY Act just a 6% chance of becoming law in 2026. Crypto adviser Patrick Witt has left the White House, and November’s midterms could further complicate the bill's path. Could the Senate power shift affect its chances? predictbook.co/analysis/clar…

CLARITY Act odds sink as midterms threaten its future

Markets give the crypto bill less than a 10% chance of becoming law this year. Witt’s departure and a possible Senate shift add to the uncertainty.

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Traders see little chance of a US-Iran breakthrough by year-end. The odds of the US ending its blockade by Dec. 31 sit at 35%, while the chance of the ceasefire holding is just 32%. Diplomatic tensions continue. predictbook.co/analysis/iran…

Iran markets see little chance of year-end de-escalation

Traders put the odds of a year-end ceasefire and an end to the US blockade below 40% as shipping attacks and diplomatic tensions continue.

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Markets see two potential Democratic Senate pickups in very different states. 🔵 Alaska: Mary Peltola 74% 🔵 Maine: Troy Jackson 60% Democrats need four net seats to take the Senate. These two races may help shift the balance of power in November. predictbook.co/analysis/alas…

Alaska and Maine put Democrats’ Senate hopes to the test

Markets give Democrats an edge in two very different but key Senate races. Could pickups in Alaska and Maine help deliver control of Congress?

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Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance of winning Brazil’s presidency. Polls show a much tighter race, with Bolsonaro leading Lula by just 2-4 points. Are traders seeing something the polls are missing? predictbook.co/analysis/braz…

Brazil election: Bolsonaro leads as traders doubt polls

Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds surged after his first-round lead, but runoff polls show a much tighter race against Lula. Are traders distrusting the polls?

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Michigan Senate: El-Sayed leads recent polls by 1–7 points. Obama will campaign with him in Detroit on Oct. 24. Polymarket gives El-Sayed a 71% chance of winning, with $1.6M traded. The market sees a clear lead. The polls show a tighter race. predictbook.co/analysis/el-s…

El-Sayed leads Michigan Senate market ahead of Obama rally

Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate race, with Barack Obama set to join him next week. Could the high-profile appearance move the tight contest?

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US 2028: AOC leads the Democratic presidential market at 19%, ahead of Ossoff at 16% and Newsom at 14%. Polymarket sees nearly $1.3B in total volume. AOC is out front. The field is still wide open. predictbook.co/analysis/aoc-…

AOC leads 2028 Democratic nominee market despite open field

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tops Polymarket’s Democratic nominee race, but several rivals stand within striking distance. The battle’s taking shape.

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