Prediction markets intelligence desk. Access real-time alerts on Telegram: @Predictbook.
Joined June 2022
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What tools are you actually using to trade on prediction markets?
We've been keeping an open directory of them. 57 so far: wallet trackers, whale alerts, terminals, copy trading, odds aggregators, data APIs. Most were submitted by the teams that built them.
Missing something you use? Drop it below / add a PR.
github.com/Predictbook/aweso…
💻 Anthropic’s IPO valuation expectations have cooled, but Polymarket traders remain bullish on its stock-market debut.
A market cap of $1.75T–$2T at the close of its first trading day is the leading range at 32%.
The company’s S-1 showed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3B, up from $1.2B a year earlier, while its operating loss narrowed to $693M.
Our analysis examines whether that growth supports traders optimism despite concerns over AI spending.
predictbook.co/analysis/trad…
$100 on Serbia’s Student List a week before the result would have returned $317.46.
YES shares were trading at 31.5¢ on October 19. Here’s how that week unfolded.
🇮🇱 Israel is voting, and Polymarket favors Gadi Eisenkot to become prime minister. But the outcome will also depend on coalition talks.
The former IDF chief has a 62% chance, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 24% and Naftali Bennett at 9%.
Pre-election polling left neither bloc assured of a parliamentary majority, making smaller parties crucial to negotiations that could take weeks.
Our analyst @Journalancer examines Eisenkot market lead and the obstacles to forming the next government.
🇺🇸 Trump is rallying behind Cindy Hyde-Smith. Obama is backing Scott Colom. Mississippi’s Senate race is drawing national attention.
Polymarket gives Republican Hyde-Smith an 87% chance of reelection, versus 14% for Democrat Colom. A Change Research poll puts voter support much closer: 43% for Hyde-Smith and 40% for Colom.
Our analysis examines Democrats late push and the Republican advantage traders still expect to hold.
predictbook.co/analysis/trum…
On Kalshi 35% chance no one is the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election.
JUST IN: S&P Dow Jones Indices is teaming up with Kalshi to build prediction-market indices.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will develop benchmarks composed of event contracts. Potential themes include political power, supply-chain risks, AI’s impact on employment and weather.
CEO Tarek Mansour says future products based on these indices could offer diversified exposure to real-world events and new ways to hedge their impact.
A Polymarket trader has $117.7K on the Fed NOT raising rates by 25 basis points in October.
The latest buy added $104.6K at 93¢, bringing the potential payout to $127.6K if the outcome resolves NO.
🇮🇱 Israel votes as Polymarket favors Eizenkot to become the next prime minister.
Polymarket gives Gadi Eizenkot a 62% chance of becoming prime minister after the election, ahead of Netanyahu at 27% and Naftali Bennett at 8%.
More than $58M has been traded on on who will lead the next government.
Prediction markets are competing for official sports rights.
The NBA is the latest addition, naming @Kalshi and @Polymarket its preferred prediction market exchanges on October 26.
Here is who’s partnering with whom, and what each deal includes.
One Kalshi trader is confident enough to put $164K on Pittsburgh NOT winning the AFC North.
The position pays $200K if the Steelers miss out on the division title.
Kylian Mbappé is heading to tonight’s Ballon d’Or ceremony in London with Real Madrid’s delegation.
His Polymarket odds have climbed to 32%, while Harry Kane remains the favorite at 61%. Lamine Yamal trails at 7%.
Kalshi has become a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange of the NBA.
The deal brings official NBA data, distributed by Sportradar, to its basketball markets for trading and settlement.
Kalshi and the league will share information on suspicious trading and cooperate on investigations. The agreement also restricts which markets can be offered and explicitly prohibits NBA league and team personnel from trading NBA event contracts.
Polymarket has now joined Kalshi as a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange of the NBA, with official league data and exclusive activations.
xitter.cf/Polymarket/status/2114…
🇧🇷 Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 72% chance of winning three days before Brazil runoff. Lula won instead.
Final polls showed a tight race, with Bolsonaro’s narrow lead often within the margin of error. Lula ultimately secured a fourth presidential term with 51.79% of the vote against Bolsonaro’s 48.21%.
Our analysis examines whether traders put too much confidence in Bolsonaro despite the polling evidence.
predictbook.co/analysis/braz…
