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๐Ÿฆ˜ Corporate Finance World ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟCIB๊ธˆ์œต์ธ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋‹ค.

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined August 2024
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์ตœ๊ทผ์— ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ํ•ด์™ธ๊ณ„์ •์— ์†Œ๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ํŒ”๋กœ์›Œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ๋Š˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒˆ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ํŒ”๋กœ์šฐํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹  ๋ถ„๋“ค ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ‘์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค! ๊ทธ ํ•‘๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ฐ„๋งŒ์— ์Œฉ๋šฑ ๋งž์ง€๋งŒ ์ž๊ธฐ์†Œ๊ฐœ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ํ•ด๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1โƒฃ ์ €๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ํƒœ์ƒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ & ๋‰ด์งˆ๋žœ๋“œ ๊ตญ์ ์ด๊ณ  ํ˜„์žฌ ์‹œ๋“œ๋‹ˆ์— ๊ฑฐ์ฃผ ์ค‘์œผ๋กœ, ์˜ˆ์œ ๋”ธ์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์•„๋น ์ด์ž ํ•œ๊ตญ ํ•€ํ”Œ๊ณ„ (K-FinX)์˜ ์•Œ์•„์ฃผ๋Š” ํŒ”๋ถˆ์ถœ ๋‚จํŽธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. X์—์„  ์™€์ดํ”„ ์‚ฌ์ง„์œผ๋กœ ๊บผ๋“œ๋Ÿญ ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งจ๋‚  ๋งž๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2โƒฃ ๊บผ๋“œ๋Ÿญ ์ปจํ…์ธ  ์ด์™ธ์—” ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๊ธˆ์œต์‹œ์žฅ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋กœ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ชจ ๊ธˆ์œต๊ธฐ๊ด€์˜ Corporate & Investment Banking (ํ†ต์นญ CIB)๋ถ€์„œ ์†Œ์†์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ๋“œ๋‹ˆ๋ฅผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ค์„ธ์•„๋‹ˆ์•„ ์ง€์—ญ ํˆฌ์ž์ด๊ด„๋กœ ํ™œ๋™ ์ค‘์ด๊ณ , ์•„๋ฌด๋ž˜๋„ ์ง์—…์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์ƒ ์ฐจํŠธ๋ถ„์„์ด๋‚˜ ๋‹จ์ผ ์ข…๋ชฉ ๋งค์ˆ˜/๋งค๋„ ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ ๋ณด๋‹จ ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์ ์ธ ํ๋ฆ„๊ณผ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃน๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 3โƒฃ ๊ตฌ๋… ์ปจํ…์ธ ๋„ ์šด์˜ ์ค‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•„๋ฌด๋ž˜๋„ ๋‹ค์†Œ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋А๊ปด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” "๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ"๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์š” ์ปจํ…์ธ ๋ผ ์ œ ์–˜๊ธฐ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค๋„ ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š” ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ๊ฒธํ—ˆํžˆ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ ๊ณต๊ฐœ๊ธ€์€ ์‚ฌ๊ฒฌ์ด ๋น ์ง„ ํŒฉํŠธ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ๋ถ„์„์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ตฌ๋…์—์„œ๋Š” ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋” ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์•ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ €์˜ ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์ธ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ ์—†์ด ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‚˜๋ฆ„ ์ƒ‰๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‚ด์šฉ์œผ๋กœ FinX ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆํ‹ฐ์— ๋„์›€ ๋˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง„์ง€ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ, ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ์†Œํ†ต ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ™˜์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!
๋ณ„๊ฑฐ ์•„๋‹Œ ์ œ ๊ณ„์ •์— ์–ด๋А๋ง ํŒ”๋กœ์›Œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋ช…์ด ๋„˜์–ด์„œ ๊ฐํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์ƒˆ๋กญ๋„ค์š”. ์ž‘๋…„ 12์›” ์ค‘์ˆœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ ์•ฝ 10๊ฐœ์›”๊ฐ„ x์นœ๋‹˜๋“ค๊ณผ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์šด ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ฅผ ๋นŒ์–ด ์ง„์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์”€ ์ „ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ๐Ÿ™‡๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿป๐Ÿซถ ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ์ œ ๊ณ„์ •์„ ์ ‘ํ•˜์‹  ๋ถ„๋“ค๋„ ๊ณ„์…”์„œ ๊ฐ„๋žตํžˆ ์ €์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ง์”€ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ž๋ฉด: 1๏ธโƒฃ ์ €๋Š” ์‹œ๋“œ๋‹ˆ ๊ฑฐ์ฃผ ์ค‘์ธ ๊ฒ€๋จธ์™ธ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์ผ์ƒ ์ƒํ™œ, ํŠนํžˆ ์—…๋ฌด์— ์žˆ์–ด์„  ์˜์–ด๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ง๋ณด๋‹ค ํŽธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. X์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ง๋กœ ๊ธ€ ์“ฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์—„์ฒญ ๋Š˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฒƒ๋„ ํ˜ผ์ž๋งŒ์˜ ์ฐฉ๊ฐ์ธ๊ฐ€?) 2๏ธโƒฃ ๋‰ด์งˆ๋žœ๋“œ & ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ์€ํ–‰๊ถŒ CIB (๊ธฐ์—…&ํˆฌ์ž๊ธˆ์œต) ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ์˜ค๋žœ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ชธ ๋‹ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์‹œ๋“œ๋‹ˆ์—์„œ CIBํŒ€ ํ•ด๋“œ๋กœ ์˜ค์„ธ์•„๋‹ˆ์•„ ์ง€์—ญ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ด๊ด„ ๋‹ด๋‹นํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ํ‰๋ฒ”ํ•œ ์ง์žฅ์ธ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 3๏ธโƒฃ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ ์ •๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ๋งค๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ผ์ธ ์ง์—…์ด๋ผ, x์—์„œ๋„ ๋งจ๋‚  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ์ˆ์ถฉ์ด๋Š” ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ผํ•˜๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฒฝ ์†์—์„  ์—„์ฒญ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ง€ํ–ฅํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์ž ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€์ž„). 4๏ธโƒฃ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ K FinX (ํ•œ๊ตญ์ธ xํˆฌ์ž ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆํ‹ฐ)์˜ ํˆฌ์ž๊ณ„์ด๊ธด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ฐจํŠธ๊ณ ์ˆ˜๋‹˜๋“ค ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ข…๋ชฉ ๊ณจ๋ผ์ฃผ๊ณ  ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ ์žก์•„์ฃผ๋Š” ์žฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 5๏ธโƒฃ ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜์‹ค๋งŒํ•œ ๋‚จ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ธ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋ผ๋ฉด ์‹ค๋ฌผ๊ฒฝ์ œ์™€ ๊ธˆ์œต์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ํฐ ๋ฌผ์ค„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํ˜๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹คโ€ฆ ์ •๋„์˜ ๊ฒฌํ•ด๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ œ ๊ธˆ์œต๊ธฐ๊ด€ ์†Œ์†์ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ตœ์ „์„ ์—์„œ ๋А๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ํ•ด๋“œ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์— ์›Œ๋‚™ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋งŽ์•„์„œ ๊ทธ๋ถ„๋“ค์— ๋น„ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์ญˆ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ์ง€๋งŒ, ์กฐ๊ธˆ์ด๋‚˜๋งˆ ์ œ ์ธ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋„ ํˆฌ์ž๊ด€๋ จ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜์‹ค ๋•Œ ๋„์›€์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!
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์•„์ง๋„ 1โƒฃ์ˆ๊ฐ ๋ณด๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋น„์ค‘์œผ๋ก  ์šฐ์„ธํ•œ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๊ณ  (= ํ™”/์ˆ˜์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์€ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์ถ”์„ธ์† ์ˆจ๊ณ ๋ฅด๊ธฐ ์ •๋„์˜€๋‹ค) 2โƒฃ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์„ ์ง€๋‚˜ ์ถ”์„ธ ์ „ํ™˜์„ ์‹œ๋„ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ด€์ ์€ ์ ์ฐจ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, 3โƒฃํ™ฉํ˜• ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ CEO&President ์ž๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ž„ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‰ด์Šค๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ด๋ž€์„ ๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ž€ ์†Œ์‹์ด ํผ์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. 3๋ฒˆ ๋‰ด์Šค๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ‘์ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋– ์˜ค๋ฅด๊ธฐ ์ „๊นŒ์ง„ ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ ์žฅ ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ณด๋ฉด 1/2๋ฒˆ ์ค‘ ์–ด๋””๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์„ธํ•œ์ง€ ํŒ๊ฐ€๋ฆ„์ด ๋‚ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ฃผ๋ง ์ง€๋‚˜๊ณ  ์›”์š”์ผ ์žฅ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค ๋ด์•ผํ•  ๋“ฏ.
(์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋‚ด์ผ ์•„๋งˆ๋„ ๋น ์งˆ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ํ–ˆ์ œ)โ“ ์ผ๋‹จ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋นผ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘, ํ”„์žฅ์€: SPY (์Šจํ”ผ500) -0.5% ๐Ÿ“‰ QQQ (๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ) -0.9% ๐Ÿ“‰ IWM (๋Ÿฌ์…€2000) -0.1% ๐Ÿ“‰ SOXX -2.1a% ๐Ÿ“‰ SPY 750 QQQ 675 ๋ผ์ธ์ด ๊ด€๊ฑด
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ํŠธํ™ฉ ์•„์ง๋„ ์ •์‹  ๋ชป์ฐจ๋ ธ๊ตฌ๋‚˜โ€ฆ ๋˜ ๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์ธ ๋Œ€์ด๋ž€ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•จ
BREAKING: US moves large numbers of troops into the Middle East as it prepares for renewed war with Iran, Israel's ambassador to the UN says. "We're seeing extensive preparations by the US: it is moving large numbers of troops into the region and putting its embassies on high alert," he tells i24NEWS minutes ago. The US warned Israel an hour ago to prepare for a renewed full-scale war against Iran.
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๋˜ ์‹œ์ž‘์ด๋„ค ๋˜ ๐Ÿšจ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์ธ๊ทผ ์˜ค๋งŒ๋งŒ ์—ฐ์•ˆ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์ด๋ž€ ๋‚จ๋ถ€ ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ชจ์ฆˆ๊ฐ„์ฃผ ๋ฐ˜๋‹ค๋ฅด ์‹œ๋ฆฌํฌ(Bandar Sirik)์˜ ๋ ˆ์ด๋” ์‹œ์„ค ๋ฐ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ๊ด€๋ จ ์‹œ์„ค์„ ๊ณต์Šตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง. ์ด๋ž€ ํŒŒ๋ฅด์Šคํ†ต์‹ (Fars News Agency)์ด ๊ณต์‹ ์†Œ์‹ํ†ต์„ ์ธ์šฉํ•ด ๋ณด๋„ํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์ž„ (โ—๏ธํ—ˆ๋‚˜ ์•„์ง ๊ณต์‹์ ์ธ ํŒฉํŠธ ์ฒดํฌ๋Š” ์•ˆ๋จ). ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์—์„  โ€œ์ด๋ž€์ด ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณด๋ณต์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ ํ•ญ๊ณต๋ชจํ•จ์„ ๊ฒจ๋ƒฅํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ•จ ์ˆœํ•ญ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ(Anti-ship Cruise Missile)์„ ๋ฐœ์‚ฌํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ œ๊ธฐ๋œ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ ์—†๋Š” ์†Œ๋ฆฌ.
BREAKING: The U.S. now launches airstrikes on a radar installation and military-related site in Bandar Sirik, southern Iranโ€™s Hormozgan Province, along the strategic Gulf of Oman coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, per Fars News Agency, citing official sources. Iran might respond by launching anti-ship cruise missiles targeting U.S. aircraft carriers within hours.
2
1
11
1,176
(์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋‚ด์ผ ์•„๋งˆ๋„ ๋น ์งˆ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ํ–ˆ์ œ)โ“ ์ผ๋‹จ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋นผ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘, ํ”„์žฅ์€: SPY (์Šจํ”ผ500) -0.5% ๐Ÿ“‰ QQQ (๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ) -0.9% ๐Ÿ“‰ IWM (๋Ÿฌ์…€2000) -0.1% ๐Ÿ“‰ SOXX -2.1a% ๐Ÿ“‰ SPY 750 QQQ 675 ๋ผ์ธ์ด ๊ด€๊ฑด
์•„์ง๋„ ์ฐ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณด๊ธฐ์—” ๊ทธ๋ฆผ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ์ปจํŽŒํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ , ์ถ”์„ธ์ „ํ™˜์„ ํ™•์ • ์ง“๊ธฐ์—๋„ ์• ๋งคํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ. ๋ณผ๋ฅจ๋„ ๋‚˜์˜์ง€ ์•Š์€๋ฐ, market breadth๋Š” ๊ทธ๋‹ฅ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Œ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์™€ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ฃผ๋“ค์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ น ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์ด ์ฃผ๋„ํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ž„. ์•„๋งˆ ๋‚ด์ผ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ชจ๋ž˜ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋บ„ํ…๋ฐ ๊ทธ ๋•Œ ํ•˜๋ฝํญ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•  ๋“ฏ.
4
1
1
22
2,291
์š”์ฆ˜ ์ฐธ ์กฐํšŒ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ „๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ˆ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ณด๋‹ˆ ํš์‹คํžˆ ๋ด‡ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ํฌ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ๋“ฌ. ์ œ ํƒ๋ผ์—๋„ ๋ด‡ ๊ณ„์ • ๊ธ€๋“ค์ด๋‚˜ ๋Œ“๊ธ€๋“ค์ด ์ž๊พธ ๋ณด์—ฌ์„œโ€ฆ ์•„๋ฌด๋ž˜๋„ ํŠธ๋ž˜ํ”ฝ์„ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์— ๋บ๊ธฐ๋Š”๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”. ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ฃผ๊ธ‰์ œ ๋„์ž…๋˜๊ณ  ๋น ์ ธ๋‚˜๊ฐ„ ์œ ์ €๋ถ„๋“ค๋„ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๊ณ . ์—ญ๋Œ€ ์กฐํšŒ์ˆ˜ ์กฐํšŒ ํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ œ์ผ ๋งŽ์•˜๋˜๊ฒŒ ๊บผ๋“œ๋Ÿญ ํฌ์ŠคํŒ…์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ด์   ์ด์ชฝ๋„ ๋ณ„๋ฃจ?
๋‚˜๋‚˜์˜์ƒ์„ ๋ณด๋‹ˆ ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋‚ฌ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์šธ ์™€์ดํ”„๊ฐ€ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๋งŽ์ด ์„ ํ•ด์กŒ์ง€๋งŒ(?)โ€ฆ ์—ฐ์˜ˆ ํ•  ๋•Œ๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ์—„์ฒญ ์ฐจ๊ฐ€์šด ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€์— ๋‚ ์นด๋กญ๊ณ  ์ง„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฒจ์„œ ๋‚˜๋‚˜ ๋‹ฎ์•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŽ์ด ๋“ค์—ˆ์—ˆ์Œ. ์ „ํ˜•์ ์ธ ์ฐจ๊ฐ€์šด ๋„์‹œ ์—ฌ์ž ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€โ€ฆ ๊ฒ‰๋ชจ์Šต์ด ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์„ฌ์„ธํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฐฐ๋ ค์‹ฌ์ด ๋งŽ๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋งŒ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜์ „๋งค๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Œ.
14
2
71
5,005
์™€์šฐโ€ฆ $MSTR ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ MSCI ํ‡ด์ถœ ๊ฒฐ์ •
BREAKING: ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ MSCI has officially removed Strategy $MSTR from its indexes. This could trigger massive selling pressure on MSTR stock.
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5
1
44
2,863
๐ŸงNDQ Zoom in <์˜ฌํ•ด 4์›” vs ์ง€๊ธˆ> ๐Ÿšจ(์ฃผ์˜) ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ํŽ˜ํ„ด์ด ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ž€ ๋ณด์žฅ์€ ์—†์Œ.
๋ฏธ๋„ˆ๋น„๋‹ˆํ˜• ์‚ด์ง ๋˜ฅ์ค„ ํƒ€์‹ค ๋“ฏ SPX NDQ
1
2
25
2,838
๋ฏธ๋„ˆ๋น„๋‹ˆํ˜• ์‚ด์ง ๋˜ฅ์ค„ ํƒ€์‹ค ๋“ฏ SPX NDQ
๋ฏธ๋„ˆ๋น„ํ˜• ์†ŒํŒŒ์ดํ˜• ๊ธ€์— ์‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ธํžˆ์‹ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ, ์ž‘๋…„ 4์›”์—๋„ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ์˜ ๋‚  ๋นŒ๋“œ์—… ๋•Œ๋ž‘ ๊ทธ ์งํ›„ ๋ฐ๋“œ์บฃ ๋ฐ”์šด์Šค๋“ค ๋ณด๋ฉด ์ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ๋ง์€ ์•„๋‹˜. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ 3์›”์˜ ๋ฐ๋“œ์บฃ ๋ฐ”์šด์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ ค ํ–ˆ๊ณ , 4์›”์˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์€ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ์˜ ๋‚ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ด‰๋งค (๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ๋งŒ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ํ˜„์‹คํ™” ๋จ)๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋‹ค์šดํŠธ๋ Œ๋“œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ์žฅ๋์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๋Š” ํ•ด์„์ด ์˜ณ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด„. ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋ปํ•˜๊ธฐ์—” ์ด๋ฅด๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์—๋Š” ๋™์˜ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋‚˜๋น ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋“ฏ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ํ˜ธ์ „๋˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด‰๋งค์—ญํ•  ๋ณด๋‹จ ํ•ด์†Œ๋˜์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ์˜ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ๋ฐฐ์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ด„. ์ฐจํŠธ์—๋งŒ ๋งค๋ชฐ๋˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•จ.
9
5
3
65
10,150
๐Ÿง๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ๋“ค์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ฃผ ํˆฌ์ž ๋น„์ค‘์ด 44% ๋‚˜ ๋จโ—๏ธ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ํˆฌ์—ฌ๋œ ์ž๋ณธ์˜ ๋น„์ค‘์ด๋ผ๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹จ ๊ทธ๋งŒํผ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ…Œํฌ์„นํ„ฐ์˜ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์ง€๋‚œ 5-6๋…„๊ฐ„ ์–ด๋งˆ์–ด๋งˆ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋น„์ค‘์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์กฐ์ •๋œ ๊ฒƒ๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ํ…Œ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฑฐ๊พธ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ ค์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ฃผ๋“ค ์ „๋ง์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ์•ˆ์ข‹์€ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ํฌํด ๋ฆฌ๋ฐธ๋Ÿฐ์‹ฑ์—์„œ ์˜ค๋Š” ์—ญํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง. Classic over-concentration risk
US pension funds are heavily concentrated in technology stocks: The technology sector accounts for 44% of total US pension fund equity allocation, according to a Bloomberg analysis of more than 70 pension funds. This percentage has more than doubled since 2015. Pension fund equity allocation to technology is now larger than that of the next 3 sectors combined. By comparison, Financials represent 16%, followed by Healthcare at 12%, Industrials at 11%, and Consumer stocks at 10%. To put this into perspective, the Consumer sector was these funds' largest allocation in 2014, at ~20%. US pension funds are more exposed to technology stocks than ever.
2
2
19
1,909
They told you QE was "money printing" and that it would show up in your grocery bill. Look at the order it actually happened in: 1๏ธโƒฃ ๐ŸŸฆReserves +104% YoY, May 2020 2๏ธโƒฃ ๐ŸŸงNasdaq +69%, Mar 2021 (10 months later) 3๏ธโƒฃ ๐ŸŸฉHome prices +20.8%, Mar 2022 (12 months later) 4๏ธโƒฃ ๐ŸŸฅCPI 9.0%, Jun 2022 (3 months later) 5๏ธโƒฃ ๐ŸŸชRents 8.8%, Mar 2023 (9 months later) That's 34 months from the Fed โ€œprinting itโ€ until it hits your rent. Reserves never reach the public. They sit on the balance sheets of the largest domestic and foreign banks, outside M2, and the first thing they inflate is asset prices. Consumers feel it last, through housing. Since 2008 reserves are up 65x while bank loans are up only 2.1x. CPI averaged 1.6% from 2009 to 2019. The money didn't go into productive loans into the economy. It went into the asset base. Powell went on TV and said "we print it digitally" without explaining any of this. The affordability crisis isn't a mystery. It's the Fed Layer, and the people selling you the money printing story are skipping over it
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22
2
104
4,941
$CRWV ์ฝ”์–ด์œ„๋ธŒ๐Ÿ”ฅ ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค๋ฅผ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋„˜๋Š” ๋งค์ถœ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ–ฅํ›„ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๋„ ์ƒํ–ฅ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์žฅ์ค‘ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ +25%์ƒ์Šน, ์ผ์ฃผ์ผ๊ฐ„ +38% ์ƒ์Šน ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ€ข๋งค์ถœ์•ก $3.66bn YoY +168%, ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ $3.55bn ์ƒํšŒ โ€ข์กฐ์ • EBITDA $2.26bn โ€ข์กฐ์ • ์˜์—…์ด์ต $379m โ€ข์ˆœ์†์‹ค -$709m (โš ๏ธ์ „๋…„ -$110m ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€) โ€ข์ˆœ์ด์ž๋น„์šฉ $846m (โ—๏ธ์ „๋…„ $311m ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ธ‰์ฆ) โ€ข์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ (Backlog) $132.5bn YoY +138% ๋‹น์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์ ๋งŒ ๋ด์„  ์•„๋ฌด๋ž˜๋„ ๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ CAPEX ํˆฌ์ž…๊ณผ ์ž๊ธˆ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ด์ž๋น„์šฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์ˆœ์†์‹ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋Š” ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์ด๋Š” ๊ธ‰์†๋„๋กœ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” capital intensive ์‚ฌ์—…๋“ค์˜ ์ „ํ˜•์ ์ธ ๋ชจ์–‘์„ธ, ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ramp-up์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์˜ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ์ „ํ™˜ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์—…์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋”์šฑ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ง€ํ‘œ์ž„. โ—๏ธ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์›์ธ์€ ๋‹น์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์  ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ณด๋‹จ ํ–ฅํ›„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ โ€œ์ž๊ธˆ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์šฐ๋ ค ์™„ํ™”โ€๋กœ ๋ด„: ๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿปํ–ฅํ›„ 3๊ฐœ์›”๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ $9bn์˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ธˆยท์˜ˆ์น˜๊ธˆ ์œ ์ž… ์˜ˆ์ƒ ๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป2027๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ชจํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ฐจ์›์˜ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด๋‹ด๋ณด์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋ฐœํ–‰์„ ๊ณ„ํšํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์„ค๋ช… ๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿปํ‰๊ท  ์ฐจ์ž…๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.5%p ํ•˜๋ฝํ•œ 7.9% ์ˆ˜์ค€ ๐Ÿ‘‰๐ŸปAI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์ˆ˜์š”์™€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹ ๋ขฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์•„๋ฌด๋ž˜๋„ ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฝ, ํšŒ์‚ฌ์ฑ„ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์™€ CDS ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ•œ ์ ์„ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์ด ์˜์‹ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ๊ทธ์— ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์ „๋žต์  ๋Œ€์‘์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ํŒ๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ž„. โ—๏ธ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์„ค๋น„ํˆฌ์ž์™€ ์ด์ž๋น„์šฉ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ ๋‚จ์•„ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด„. ๋‹น์žฅ์€ ๋ฐ์„ผ ๊ด€๋ จ ์‚ฌ์—…๊ตฐ๋“ค๊ณผ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์‹œ์žฅ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ์— ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นœ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ž„.
์˜ค๋Š˜๋ฐค CPI ์™€ ์ˆ˜์š”์ผ $CRWV ์‹ค์ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์ฃผ๋ชฉ ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€
3
1
17
1,251
์•„์ง๋„ ์ฐ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณด๊ธฐ์—” ๊ทธ๋ฆผ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ์ปจํŽŒํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ , ์ถ”์„ธ์ „ํ™˜์„ ํ™•์ • ์ง“๊ธฐ์—๋„ ์• ๋งคํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ. ๋ณผ๋ฅจ๋„ ๋‚˜์˜์ง€ ์•Š์€๋ฐ, market breadth๋Š” ๊ทธ๋‹ฅ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Œ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์™€ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ฃผ๋“ค์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ น ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์ด ์ฃผ๋„ํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ž„. ์•„๋งˆ ๋‚ด์ผ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ชจ๋ž˜ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋บ„ํ…๋ฐ ๊ทธ ๋•Œ ํ•˜๋ฝํญ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•  ๋“ฏ.
๋ฏธ๋„ˆ๋น„ํ˜• ์†ŒํŒŒ์ดํ˜• ๊ธ€์— ์‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ธํžˆ์‹ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ, ์ž‘๋…„ 4์›”์—๋„ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ์˜ ๋‚  ๋นŒ๋“œ์—… ๋•Œ๋ž‘ ๊ทธ ์งํ›„ ๋ฐ๋“œ์บฃ ๋ฐ”์šด์Šค๋“ค ๋ณด๋ฉด ์ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ๋ง์€ ์•„๋‹˜. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ 3์›”์˜ ๋ฐ๋“œ์บฃ ๋ฐ”์šด์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ ค ํ–ˆ๊ณ , 4์›”์˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์€ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ์˜ ๋‚ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ด‰๋งค (๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ๋งŒ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ํ˜„์‹คํ™” ๋จ)๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋‹ค์šดํŠธ๋ Œ๋“œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ์žฅ๋์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๋Š” ํ•ด์„์ด ์˜ณ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด„. ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋ปํ•˜๊ธฐ์—” ์ด๋ฅด๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์—๋Š” ๋™์˜ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋‚˜๋น ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋“ฏ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ํ˜ธ์ „๋˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด‰๋งค์—ญํ•  ๋ณด๋‹จ ํ•ด์†Œ๋˜์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ์˜ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ๋ฐฐ์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ด„. ์ฐจํŠธ์—๋งŒ ๋งค๋ชฐ๋˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•จ.
9
12
1
93
7,894
์ „์—…์ฃผ๋ถ€โ€ฆ ์•„์ด๊ฐ€ ๋ช‡์‚ด์ด๋ƒ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ง‘์•ˆ์ผ ํ•˜๋А๋ƒ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ผ€๋ฐ”์ผ€ ์ด๊ธด ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ์™€์ดํ”„ ์ž์œ  ๋ถ€์ธ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์ •๋„ ์•„์นจ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ €๋…๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜จ์ „ํžˆ ์• ๊ธฐ๋“ค ๋‘˜ ๋ด๋ณธ์  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ง‘์•ˆ์ผ์€ ๋ฌด์Šจ;; ๋‚œ ์• ๊ธฐ๋“ช๋ฐฅ๋ฐ์›Œ์„œ ์ฑ™๊ฒจ ๋จน์ด๊ณ  ๋นจ๋ž˜๋Š” ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐ–์— ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์• ๋“ค ์”ป๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žฌ์šฐ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ํ•˜๋ฃจ ๋‹ค ๊ฐ. ์š”๋ น์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ง„์งœ ํ•˜๋ฃจ์ข…์ผ ์ „ํ˜€ ์‰ดํ‹ˆ์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ์™€์ดํ”„ ๋ง์„ ์•ˆ ๋ฏฟ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์Œ. ์šธ ์™€์ดํ”„๋Š” ์—ฐ๋…„์ƒ ๋‘˜์งธ ๋†“๊ธฐ ์ง์ „๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 6๋…„์ฐจ ์‚ฌ์—… ์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ฌํ•ด ์ „์—…์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ–ฅํ•œ ์ผ€์ด์Šค์ธ๋ฐ, 17๊ฐœ์›” ๐ŸŒ•๋ณด๋ฆ„์ด 6๊ฐœ์›” โ˜€๏ธํ–‡๋‹˜์ด ์—ฐ๋…„์ƒ ๋Œ๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ ์ด์œ ์‹, ์•„์นจ ์ ์‹ฌ ์ €๋… ๋‹ค ์š”๋ฆฌ์— ์„ค๊ฒ†์ด ๋นจ๋ž˜ ์ฒญ์†Œ ๊นŒ์ง€ ์‹น ๋‹ค ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์™€์ดํ”„ ํž˜๋“œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์™ธ์‹ํ•˜์ž๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„ ์˜ค๋น ๋„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋จน์—ฌ์‚ด๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ˆ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์˜ค๋Š”๊ฑฐ ํž˜๋“ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •๊ฒฝ์ œ ์˜จ์ „ํžˆ ์ฑ…์ž„์ง€๋Š”๊ฑฐ ํž˜๋“ค์–ด๋„ ๋ถˆํ‰ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์—†์ด ๋‹ค ํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ €๋…์€ ์ง‘์—์„œ ๋”ฐ๋œปํ•œ ๋ฐฅ ๋จน์ด๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์›ฌ๋งŒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ผญ ์š”๋ฆฌํ•ด์คŒ. ํž˜๋“ฌ์— 9๋Š” ์œก์•„๊ณ  1์€ ์ง‘์•ˆ์ผ์ด๋ผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•จ. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋‚˜๋งˆ ์ €๋… ๋จน๊ณ  ์„ค๊ฒ†์ด๋Š” ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์šฐ๊ฒจ์„œ ๋„์™€์คŒ. ์ฒจ์—” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋„ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•จ. ์ง‘์•ˆ์ผ์„ ์ผ๋จธ๋ฆฌ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ์ž˜ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ๋‹ค ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ๋ˆ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์˜ค๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ํž˜๋“ ์ง€ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋ฉด ์ € ๋…ผ๋ž€์˜ ์˜์ƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ โ€œ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ํž˜๋“ ์ง€ ์•Œ์•„? ๋ช…ํ’ˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ• ๊ป˜โ€ ๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์ด ์•ˆ๋‚˜์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ
์ง„์งœ ์ „์—…์ฃผ๋ถ€๋“ค ใ…ˆ ใ„ด ์œ ๋‚œ๋–จ์Œ ์ „์—…์ฃผ๋ถ€ํ• ๋ž˜ ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ๋ˆ๋ฒŒ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ž˜ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฌด์กฐ๊ฑด ์ „์—…์ฃผ๋ถ€ํ•œ๋‹ค ใ…‹
48
6
8
178
26,585
๋งค์šด๋ง› ํ•ซ์†Œ์Šค๋‹˜ ์ง„์งœ ๋—์ž๋ฆฌ ๊น”์•„์•ผ๊ฒ ์–ด์š” ใ„ทใ„ทใ„ทใ„ทใ„ท
๋„์ค€๋‹˜ ์–ผ๊ตด์€ ์•Œ๊ณ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ ์ง„์งœ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ด€์ƒ๋ด๋“œ๋ฆผ ์›๋ž˜ ๋”ฑ ์ƒ๊น€์ƒˆ๋งŒ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ  ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ์‚ฌ๋žŒํ•œํ…Œ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ธฐ์šด๊นŒ์ง€ ํฌํ•จํ•ด์„œ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๊ธด ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์–ผ๊ตด ์ƒ๊น€์ƒˆ๋งŒ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋ฉด ๆœจํ˜•๊ณผ ๅœŸํ˜• ๋ฐ˜๋ฐ˜ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์„๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š” ๆœจํ˜•์€ ํ•™๊ตฌ์ ์ด๊ณ  ํƒ๊ตฌ์ •์‹ ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ํŽธ์ด๋ผ ์„ ๋น„ํ˜•์— ๊ฐ€๊น๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”. ๋‚˜๋ฌด๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„์† ํ•˜๋Š˜์„ ๋ป—์–ด๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์•„์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ณ„์† ์ถ”๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์œ„๋กœ๊ฐ€๋ ค๋Š” ์„ฑํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•„๋งˆ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„, ๊ธˆ์œต์—…๊ฐ™์€ ์ง์—…์ ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋งค์น˜๊ฐ€ ์ž˜๋จ. ๋ณดํ†ต ์–ผ๊ตด์ด ๊ธธ์ญ‰ํ•œ ํ˜•์ด๊ณ . ์—ฐ์˜ˆ์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋”ฐ์ง€๋ฉด ๊น€์ˆ˜ํ˜„์ด ์ „ํ˜•์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชฉํ˜•์ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ, ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํ˜ธ๋ถˆํ˜ธ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋‚จ๋ˆˆ์น˜๊ณ  ์•ˆ๋ณด๊ณ  ๋”ฑ๋ถ€๋Ÿฌ์ง€๊ณ  ์œ ๋„๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ํŽธ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š” ๅœŸํ˜•์€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ๋‘ฅ๊ธ€๋‘ฅ๊ธ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์„ฑ๊ฒฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋“  ํ˜ธ๋ถˆํ˜ธ๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ , ๋‚จ๋“ค๊ณผ ์œ ์—ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ž˜ ์ง€๋‚ด๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”. ๋„์ค€๋‹˜ ์–ผ๊ตด์—๋„ ๅœŸํ˜•์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•„๋งˆ ๋ชฉํ˜•์ž„์—๋„ ์—‘์Šค์—์„œ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด๋ž‘ ์‹ธ์šฐ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์„ฑํ–ฅ์ด ํ† ํ˜•๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ผ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”. ์•„๋งˆ ์ง์—…์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ชฉํ˜•์„ฑํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ• ๊ฑฐ๊ณ , ์‹ค์ œ ๋Œ€์ธ๊ด€๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ํ† ํ˜• ์„ฑํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜์‹ค๊ฑฐ๋ผ ์‚ถ์— ์กฐํ™”๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ์ด๋ฃจ์‹ค๋“ฏ. ํšŒ์‚ฌ์—์„œ๋„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด๋ž‘ ์ž˜ ์ง€๋‚ด์‹œ๋Š” ํŽธ์ด์ฃ ?ใ…‹ใ…‹
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RMP๋Š” Bill ๋งค์ž…์ธ๋ฐ, ๊ทธ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ์›๋ž˜๋„ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๋„˜์ณ๋‚˜์„œ ์—ฐ์ค€์ด ์ปค๋ฒ„ ์•ˆํ•ด์ค˜๋„ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ด๋ผ ์ข€.. ํ˜„๊ธˆ์ด๋‚˜ ๋‹ค๋ฆ„์—†๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์•ˆ์ „๋นต์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ค„๋ฉด, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋†ˆ์ด ๊ทธ ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ์ฑ„์šธ๊บผ๊ณ , ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํƒ€๊ณ ํƒ€๊ณ ๊ฐ€์„œ ์–ด๋””๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์š”(์œ ๋™์„ฑ)๊ฐ€ ์ œ์ผ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ค„๊ฒ ๋ƒ? CDS์•ผ CDS. ์กด๋‚˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์ฑ„. ๋ˆ ๋ชป ๋ฒ„๋Š” ๋ฒ„๋ธ” ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๋ˆ ์—†์–ด์„œ ๊ธ‰์ „ ๋•ก๊ธด๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ–‰ํ•œ ์–ด์Œ๋“ค ๋ง์•ผ.
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JunDoJun ๐Ÿฉธ retweeted
Replying to @JunDo1050
thats why my profile become robot...
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JunDoJun ๐Ÿฉธ retweeted
Replying to @postitbot
๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์ธ ์ƒ๊ฐ์œผ๋ก  ์ด์ œ ์—ฐ์ค€ ์ž…์žฅ์—์„œ๋„ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋ˆˆ์น˜ ๋ณ„๋กœ ์•ˆ๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ jawboning ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ด์„œ ํ•„์š”์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋งคํŒŒ์ ์ธ ๋ฐœ์–ธ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€์†”๋ฆฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฑด 11์›” ์ ‘์–ด๋“ค๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ๋‹ˆ ์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์— ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง€ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค๊ธด ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 12์›” FOMC ๊ฐ€ 8-9์ผ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๊ณ  11์›” CPI๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” 10์ผ ์˜ˆ์ •, 11์›” PCE๋Š” 12์›” ๋ง ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ผ 10์›” ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ์ค€์ด ๊ณ ๋ คํ•  ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ง์”€ํ•˜์‹  ๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์—‡๋ฐ•์ž๊ฐ€ ๋‚  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ฃ  ใ…Ž
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JunDoJun ๐Ÿฉธ retweeted
[ 2๋…„๊ฐ„์˜ ์ž์‚ฐ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ, ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ๋๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ] ์˜ฌํ•ด ํˆฌ์ž์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๋Œ์•„๋ณด๋ฉด ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ˆœ์„œ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ, ์€, ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๊นŒ์ง€ ํฐ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‹œ์ž‘๋๊ณ .. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์ฐจ๋ก€๋กœ ๋๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ถœ๋ฐœ์ ์€ 2024๋…„ 9์›” ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ ์ฒซ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์ค€์€ 2025๋…„ 12์›”๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ธฐ์ค€๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ 5.50%์—์„œ 3.75%๋กœ 1.75%p ๋‚ด๋ ธ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ธˆ๊ณผ ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ์€ ์•ฝ 2๋ฐฐ, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ง€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์•ฝ 3๋ฐฐ, ์€์€ ์•ฝ 4๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ๋๋‹ค. ํ™”ํ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜ค์ž.. ์ž์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์ผ์ œํžˆ ์˜ฌ๋ž๋‹ค. ๊บพ์ด๋Š” ์ˆœ์„œ๋„ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ์ด 2025๋…„ 10์›” 12๋งŒ 6,000๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋จผ์ € ๊ณ ์ ์„ ์ฐ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ๊ณผ ์€์€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์ธํ•˜ ํ•œ ๋‹ฌ ๋’ค์ธ 2026๋…„ 1์›” ๊ฐ๊ฐ 5,405๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ 121๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ๋ฉˆ์ท„๋‹ค. ์ธํ•˜๊ฐ€ ๋๋‚ฌ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๋–จ์–ด์ง„ ์…ˆ.. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๋Š” AI ์‹ค์ ์ด ๋ฐ›์ณ์ค€ ๋•์— 6์›”๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ฌ๋ผ 14,600์„ ์ฐ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ 6์›”์€ ECB์™€ ์ผ๋ณธ์€ํ–‰์ด ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ ๋‹ฌ.. ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋›ฐ์ž.. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ 10๋…„๋ฌผ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—ฐ์ดˆ 4.2%์—์„œ ๊ณ„์† ์˜ฌ๋ž๊ณ , 9์›” ์—ฐ์ค€์ด 2023๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ธ์ƒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 10์›” 7์ผ 10๋…„๋ฌผ์€ 5.36%๋กœ 2002๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๋Š” 10์›”์— ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋” ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์„ ์‹œ๋„ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ.. ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ 5%๋ฅผ ๊ฒฌ๋””์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์กŒ๋‹ค. ์„ฑ์ ํ‘œ๋Š” ํ™•์ธํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด.. ๊ณ ์  ๋Œ€๋น„.. ์€ -57%, ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ -41%, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด -32%, ๊ธˆ -25%, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ -9% ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋Šฆ๊ฒŒ 9์›”์— ๊ณ ์ ์„ ์ฐ์€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ๋„ ๋„‰ ๋‹ฌ ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ์ €๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ค์™”๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๋งˆ์ผ“์€ 12์›” ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ธ์ƒ์„ ํ™•์ •์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ .. 50bp ์ธ์ƒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ด ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํ•œ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์ด ๋‚˜์™€๋„ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ž ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‹œ์ž‘์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์šด ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ด๋‹ค.
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