Forecaster "belikewater" @XriskFYI @Swift_Centre @SamotsvetyF. Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc. PhD Neurosci, MA Econ. Opinions my own.

Michigan, USA
Joined April 2017
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Russia is deploying fishing trawlers to spy on the UK’s critical undersea cables, The Telegraph can disclose. Civilian vessels are being tracked by Nato as they carry out espionage for Vladimir Putin in waters around Britain. Ministers have confirmed that Moscow is using “commercial proxies” to threaten vital undersea infrastructure. @GazTheJourno has more👇 telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
For most of the war, Iran had an invaluable cushion: dozens of oil tankers holding millions of barrels of crude sitting safely in waters in Asia. Tehran steadily sold the oil to China, bringing in billions of much-needed cash. Now, it's all gone. on.wsj.com/4jvo65a
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Armed and in uniform, agents from the Department of Homeland Security have been knocking on doors to ask residents about their immigration status whether they're registered to vote. cbsn.ws/4yzObDZ
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
BREAKING: The German Bundeswehr believe there is an imminent Russian sabotage attack on German military bases or Ukrainian production facilities and have raised the threat level to its second highest level as significant. Wow…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Deadly Shamonda virus detected in human for first time in France The virus had until now been considered non-transmissible to humans, the French government said independent.co.uk/news/world…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
The US and Israel have drawn up plans for a new bombing campaign against Iran after the midterm elections- US officials to the NYT Some officials believe one more major round of strikes could force Iran over the brink and back to the negotiating table.
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Barclays is to cut 5,000 jobs that will be replaced by AI in one of the biggest tech-driven employment culls yet seen in the UK. Barclays said that it removed 60pc of its costs in supporting roles in the first half of the year, which included many developers whose jobs can be easily carried out by AI🔗 telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
BREAKING 🚨: China Chinese Stock Market on track for 11 straight red weeks, its longest losing streak in history 📉 📉
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
We are The Steady State. We’re more than 450 former national security, intelligence, diplomatic, military, law enforcement, and homeland security officials committed to defending our Constitution, the rule of law, and the institutions that keep America safe. Democracy is worth defending. #HoldFast
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Nigeria reported its first Ebola case in more than a decade, becoming ‌the fourth African country and the most populous yet to be affected by an outbreak that health officials have described as the fastest-spreading on record reut.rs/4slfIYv
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
'The Telegraph took four and a half years of satellite tracking data of Russia’s fishing fleet and laid it over existing charts. It found 17 trawlers from five companies loitering at low speed over the North Atlantic’s most important cables' @TomSharpe134 explains why the investigation has changed his 'thinking in three ways' 👇 telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
The world’s second-biggest economy increasingly resembles Japan's during the long period of stagnation and deflation that followed the bursting of its property bubble in 1990 ft.trib.al/bqIrnHL
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
The top Democratic lawmakers on the congressional intelligence committees said they received an intelligence briefing that Russia has been waging a misinformation campaign against Democrats running in next month's midterm elections reut.rs/4885KA7
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Elon Musk wants to combine Tesla and SpaceX in a $3.7 trillion deal. He’s rushing to get it done before Trump leaves office bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Some stats on #php2shell. In the 10 hours before it was publicly announced, across the @Cloudflare network we saw thousands of attempts to exploit it. That jumped to tens of thousands in the 45 minutes post announcement, hundreds of thousands within 2 hours, and millions now.
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The US refining industry is running the hardest **for this time of the year** in at least 25 years (ever?). October is when typically many plants go into seasonal maintenance, but that has been delayed due to eye-watering margins and the pressure from Trump.
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
I should have started a thread by now.
A U.S. official and a senior military official told CBS News @ellee_watson & @JimLaPorta that the reductions at US military bases in Mideast were being taken because of ongoing regional threats like the Houthis as well as threats from Iran directly. In addition, the US State Dept publicly ordered departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees & their family from Saudi Arabia only; @Olivia_Gazis & I are also hearing of reductions in staffing elsewhere in region.
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Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Regarding potential attacks on energy, food, and water infrastructure, the threat is quite real. Someone is currently probing infra and feeling it out, it is an active threat. Even a little preparation can be helpful, just in case. This comes from the joint cybersecurity advisory released by the NSA and partner agencies on August 19: 'The threat actors are conducting reconnaissance and capability development against U.S.-based Siemens PLC installations using Al-generated exploitation scripts disguised as legitimate monitoring tools. The actors leverage Internet scanning services to find Internet-exposed PLCs running outdated software or that are otherwise poorly protected. The U.S. critical infrastructure sectors most targeted by this threat activity include Critical Manufacturing, Energy, Water and Wastewater, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Commercial Facilities. This is not a theoretical risk - it is an active threat. Depending on the specific circumstances, exploitation of poorly protected PLCS could lead to disruption of critical industrial processes, safety incidents, downtime or equipment damage, compromise of sensitive data, compliance violations, and cascading impacts across interconnected systems.' 'Using Al to generate exploitation scripts represents an evolution in threat actor capabilities, dramatically reducing the technical expertise and time required to develop working ICS exploitation scripts and malicious tools. In addition, Al enables adversaries to rapidly leverage additional attack vectors and adapt to defensive measures. Threat actors can easily collect public information about vulnerabilities and weaknesses, find exposed and exploitable PLCs, and use Al-generated scripts to act on that information. If PLCs are exposed to the Internet, they are at high risk for exploitation. Threat actors are leveraging open source industrial automation libraries - specifically snap7.d11/python-snap7 - combined with Al-assisted scripting to create custom tools that mimic legitimate OT monitoring solutions. These tools provide read/write access to Siemens S7 Series PLC memory, configuration data, and ladder logic programs via the S7comm protocol.'
It seems like we're in a pretty hot moment cybersecurity wise 😬 If you're reading this website, you probably know more than most of the people in your life about what's happening! they're not talking about any of this stuff on the news, it's too arcane and weird and sudden. It is on us. Good time to call or text your family and friends, have some cash on hand, have a meetup point in your neighborhood for if the Internet goes down entirely, etc. The full prepper mode for shit hitting the fan is probably something like what Andreas posted here but you can get 80% of the way with 20% of the effort. Think about what that would mean for you in your situation, and the people you care about, and talk to them about it sooner than later. And as always, the most important part of prepping is having a strong support network and caring for each other. "Going off grid" isn't the move, it just makes you isolated and you have to do everything yourself. We are social animals. Community is our superpower 🫡🫡🫡
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