aka KeithOz Investor in a very small number of carefully selected resources companies. Dad to a smaller number of even more carefully selected daughters.
Mostly sunny
Joined August 2021
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K Quick retweeted
So let's get this straight: Russia just murdered over 65 people in Ukraine in less than 48 hours. Crushed a building on top of sleeping families to celebrate Putin's birthday.
And today, the U.S. announces that they are lifting sanctions on Russian diesel and planning to buy some, essentially becoming sponsors of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Just a day after a horrific terrorist attack by Russia that killed so many, and just before the winter when the Russian government screams from all the rooftops that they are going to create a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine by destroying our infrastructure.
This is just such a low and cruel betrayal that it's hard to wrap my head around...
K Quick retweeted
Rig on way from MOU-5 to MOU-6 using the new road build at the side of the bridge that we had to have approval to build #PRD
K Quick retweeted
#PRD
Updated research note posted here.
t.me/+ApS7Dv1nM802Njg0
@PredatorOilGas
@JoshYoung
@FraserLeclerc @Blowster85
K Quick retweeted
ROB posted re Guercif
Being a super basin
Funny old World 😇
#PRD
🛰️
Never seen this before. We are harvesting our citrus trees at the same time they are blossoming. Must be the weird weather we've had all year.
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K Quick retweeted
🚀 #PRD — NOW FOR THE UPSIDE
This is where the MOU-6 risk/reward equation gets really interesting.
MOU-6 does NOT need to prove 498.4 Bcf to succeed.
Let me repeat that.
498.4 Bcf is NOT my base case for MOU-6 success.
The potentially transformational question is whether MOU-6 provides evidence supporting stratigraphic extension beyond the structural closure. 👀
Because if commercial flow is established AND the wider connectivity concept gains support…
the potential scale of the opportunity changes.
⭐ 498.4 Bcf STRATIGRAPHIC UPSIDE CONCEPT
And I deliberately risk that outcome much harder:
🔥 Meaningful gas evidence — 90%
💰 Commercially sustainable flow — 60%
🔗 Extension beyond structural closure supported — 42.5%
⭐ 498.4 Bcf concept materially de-risked — 40%
⚠️ Again: MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — NOT PRD PROBABILITIES.
That’s the asymmetry I see in MOU-6.
It doesn’t need the transformational outcome to be a successful well.
But if it establishes commercial flow AND provides evidence supporting stratigraphic connectivity…
the conversation potentially changes from:
“DOES GUERCIF WORK?”
to:
“HOW BIG COULD THIS SYSTEM BE?” 🔥🇲🇦
And THAT is where the risk/reward equation becomes very interesting.
@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @AM231982 @ABMckinley
#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco
K Quick retweeted
☀️ #PRD — NOW LOOK AT THE DATA
Why do I believe MOU-6 has a materially different risk profile to a conventional exploration well?
Because MOU-6 isn’t starting at zero. 👇
At MOU-3:
🔥 Significant gas influx while drilling
📈 122 psi estimated overpressure in the shallow gas sand
🟢 Repeated gas shows across multiple intervals
🧪 98.04–99.57% methane in 7 MOU-3 isotube samples
📍 MOU-6 planned only ~600m from MOU-3
🎯 Purpose-designed drilling programme
My probability framework therefore puts:
🟢 95% — target reservoir encountered
🟢 90% — meaningful gas evidence
🟢 78% — useful MDT pressure/mobility data
🟡 60% — commercially sustainable flow
These are MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — not PRD probabilities.
And that’s the key distinction.
❌ The question isn’t simply:
“IS THERE GAS?”
🎯 The big question MOU-6 is designed to answer is:
“CAN IT FLOW COMMERCIALLY?”
If the answer is YES, the story moves to another level. 🚀🇲🇦
@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @ABMckinley @AM231982 @tozzer121
#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco
