Kansas Wx

Tropical update: yes, we have a tropical wave working off the coast of Africa. It's *at least* 7-10 days away from reaching U.S., meaning it's beyond range of "deterministic," or specific, predictions. There are two main sources of uncertainty regarding where it matures and "recurves" northwards – either toward land or out to sea. 1.) Where the center forms. This should happen in the next 3-4 days as it treks westward across the central tropical Atlantic in the MDR, or "Main Development Region." Projecting where a storm might go is futile until the storm's center actually becomes established. Otherwise, it's like playing pin-the-tail on a donkey without knowing where the donkey is. 2.) How strong is the Bermuda high? The Bermuda high is a high pressure zone. Think it it as a "forcefield" acting as a guardrail. If it's stronger, we have a stronger forcefield, and we suppress the storm south and force it westward toward the Lesser Antilles. If the forcefield is weaker, then there's a greater chance our nascent system will slip northwards out to sea. It's worth noting that, in about a week's time, the overarching environment *may* become conducive to strengthening, perhaps swiftly, somewhere north of Hispaniola toward the Bahamas. The 7-10 day time frame may bear watching for the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S., but uncertainty abounds. For now, know that we're still 7-10 days away from *anything* impacting *anywhere*. Bad actors on social media will always post cherrypicked scary-looking model runs. The science, however, tells us that we have very little skill beyond 5-7 days – especially before a system even forms.