Polar Vortex Day 2026 Why do we track the #PolarVortex ? Watch and find out! It was a pleasure meeting all the folks that came out to celebrate the return of the Polar Vortex to the Northern Hemisphere with the 6th Annual Polar Vortex Day at the North Pole inside Knoebels Amusement Resort Winter Forecast Season has Officially Begun! #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

Today's CFS model came in off the top rope(like a professional wrestler) showing a strong reaction to the upcoming Polar Vortex Weakening in mid-November! Wild model runs like this are going to become common these next few weeks while models start to react, and mostly overreact, to what is now unfolding in the stratosphere. If nothing else, it'll be interesting to watch! #wxtwitter #wxX

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event What is it? And why are cold weather enthusiasts getting excited about a warming event? The image below (from Today’s GFS) shows the result of a sudden stratospheric warming event on Nov 8th in the stratosphere. Notice the red blob directly over the North Pole… that is a ridge of warmth that evolves rather suddenly, although as I have shown you it can be seen coming from a long way ahead, if you know what to look for… A sudden stratospheric warming event is defined in either, or both, of the following 2 ways: 1) temperatures in the polar stratosphere rise >25°C in less than 1 week. 2) the normally westerly band of winds located at 60°N reverses to Easterly. The first condition qualifies it as a sudden stratospheric warming event, but if it also meets the 2nd criteria then it qualifies as a major SSWE. The result of the warming over the pole is that the cold air that is normally locked up there by the polar vortex is forced outward and into the mid-latitudes. (See the areas of blue). The important thing to note here is that the effects seen at the surface do not happen immediately. Depending on the exact dynamics involved, you could have a lag time as short as a week or as long as a month. To make a long story short, the sooner the troposphere “couples” to the stratosphere, the sooner we will see the impacts at the surface. What are those impacts? Well, this time of year the cold air pool is not yet mature so the cold air that comes will be November cold, not January or February style cold. However, November cold can still be cold enough for snow, especially at elevation. Once the SSWE occurs and the troposphere starts to couple, we will see a much wavier (north-south) jet stream develop. From there, we watch where each wave will have an opportunity to amplify and that’s where we’ll start looking for a storm. So, even though it’s called a “warming event” it can lead to some exciting winter weather. 🥳 ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage

There I am!!! I made it into someone else’s Thundersnow video!! 🌩️ ❄️ #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

Now that everyone is talking about the #PolarVortex, perhaps it’s a good time to remind everyone that I started talking about how important it would be all the way back in August at the 6th Annual Polar Vortex Day! Have a look at what I had to say with special guest Kozmo. #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

Today's Long Range CFS model is advertising an abrupt end to the above normal temperatures in the Eastern US, topped off with a White Thanksgiving! Once models start to observe the predicted Polar Vortex Weakening happen, you'll probably start to see some wild solutions in November. Stay Tuned. #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

The following quote from Dr Cohen’s blog will absolutely get the winter lovers excited… “November 2009 is the single best analog for the upcoming winter.” I saw measurable snow in NEPA every single day that February. ❄️ ❤️ The heat misers are going to absolutely lose their minds if we get a 2009/2010 style winter. #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

The weather impacts everyone and everything… even what produce is available in the grocery store

November 18th, 2022 We are coming up on the 4 year anniversary of the most epic early season snowfall ever where I got to witness 77” fall in 24 hours in Hamburg NY. I can’t help but wonder if the upcoming early November Polar Vortex disruption can produce a repeat… 🤔❄️ #winteriscoming

Polar Vortex Watch remains in effect… last night’s European Model remaining locked in 🔒 on split of the Polar Vortex marking an unprecedentedly early weakening of the vortex. Remember, a strong vortex locks up cold air around the North Pole. A weak vortex allows cold air to move into lower latitudes. Being that it will be November, the cold air likely won’t be brutal cold, but could be cold enough for early season winter weather especially in the elevations. #PolarVortex #SSWE #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

A few days ago I issued a Polar Vortex Watch… I can’t help but notice other outlets in my feed using that same wording now… I guess the watch is working. It remains in effect! I’ll be making a decision on an upgrade to a warning later today. Stay Tuned! #PolarVortex #Winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX

Nerd Alert (Non-weather post) 20 years or so ago I played @Warcraft I used to play an orc warlock and made it to Lt. General in the old PvP system. To make a long story short... I heard they are allowing trolls to be warlocks in the new version of the game. That got me thinking of their passive racial healing ability in combat (specifically PvP)... and my god... when you combine that racial with those survivability demonology talents along with molten skin... these Soul-linked Troll demonology warlocks are going to be like a raid boss to try and kill in PvP. I see some crazy survivability potential with the old "DoT and Run" playstyle... #worldofwarcraft

12z Euro with a double split #PolarVortex all the way down to 50mb producing 3 daughter vortices... Absolutely Wild! @judah47 #wxtwitter #wxX

Today's 12z GFS is illustrating the Typhoon Recurvature Teleconnection that often leads to a big Eastern US trough down the road. Let's discuss... #wxtwitter #wxX

These snow signals say NEPA looks like a great place to be for a snow lover! I’ll take it! #NEPA #Scranton #PAwx #wxtwitter #wxX

Woah… Grok is dropping some heavy hitting analogue years in the replies! I’m sure winter lovers are going to remember those years fondly! #wxtwitter #wxX

ARCTIC OSCILLATION DIVES OFF THE CHARTS! Dr Cohen’s #PolarVortex blog is going to be a fun read tomorrow…and I suggest you all read it! It looks like the Arctic Oscillation is going to uncharted territory in response to an unprecedentedly early Polar Vortex weakening. Remember, October-November is usually the time of year where the Polar Vortex strengthens the fastest. The fact that it is expected to weaken to unprecedented levels instead has HUGE implications on the winter forecast… I cannot stress that enough. #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX