family, grain production, politics, budding art enthusiast and currently bankrolling three teenage girls.
woomeLang
Joined November 2014
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chris kelly retweeted
SK Hynix on memory: “A situation where supply cannot keep up with demand is expected to persist for some time, a constraint projected to continue through 2030.”
Given the multiples of memory stocks, either the company is wrong or the market is wrong. Time will tell.
chris kelly retweeted
You’ve nailed it Kouk. Productive investment is booming and is why there won’t be a recession
chris kelly retweeted
Lending for housing free-falls; non-residential booms
youtube.com/watch?v=x_5ON1b_…
chris kelly retweeted
China car exports up 75% YTD
versus record high in 2025.
China now exports more vehicles than the USA produces.
Growth in Chinese car exports will probably slow to 10 percent in 2027 after this year’s surge as international markets take steps to protect their local industries, according to the country’s Passenger Car Association.
“Exports will fall from the supercharged growth seen this year to a medium to fast pace next year,” Secretary-General Cui Dongshu said in a briefing Nov. 9. He blamed the expected slowdown on key markets introducing higher tariffs or import quotas.
Overseas shipments grew by 75 percent in the first 10 months of this year, according to Passenger Car Association data.
The forecast comes as Chinese automakers increasingly face backlash from overseas markets — regulators in the European Union, Thailand and Brazil are introducing higher tariffs or quotas to limit the flood of Chinese exports. An export slowdown would cut into the buffer the strategy created for Chinese carmakers, which have been struggling with plunging car sales at home.
#China #Chinesevehicles #Chinesecars #automotive #autoindustry
chris kelly retweeted
I wonder if Australia’s ban on nuclear and Turkey’s proactive approach was a factor for Chris Bowen failing to win the bid for COP31?
Kind of hard to claim to be a climate leader if you ban the most scalable form of green energy there is. 🙄
#auspol
Turkey is planning 20GW of nuclear by 2050, including four reactors in final stages of construction.
This week it is hosting the global climate conference COP31, alongside Australia where nuclear power is banned.
⚛️ Take Action & Learn More
lifttheban.com.au
chris kelly retweeted
Lest we forget.
The ship’s company of HMAS Sydney (II), photographed in Alexandria in July 1940. Just 16 months later, Sydney was lost with all 645 personnel aboard.
Photo: Australian War Memorial, P00795.001.
chris kelly retweeted
China's record trade surplus is important, as @Ole_S_Hansen explains
But the oil data tell another story
October crude imports rose 9.4% and refined products 70% from September.
Yet both remain below 2025 levels.
The rebound is real, but China's energy deficit persists.
China’s record trade surplus raises fresh concerns over global trade imbalances
China’s year-to-date trade surplus reached a record USD 1.04 trillion in October, surpassing USD 958 billion during the same period last year and USD 790 billion in 2024. The widening imbalance highlights the continued strength of China’s export sector, even as domestic demand remains relatively subdued, reinforcing concerns that excess industrial capacity is increasingly being directed towards overseas markets.
During the first ten months of the year, China’s trade surplus with the EU reached a record USD 310 billion, already exceeding the USD 292 billion recorded for the whole of last year. Meanwhile, surpluses with Southeast Asia and the US climbed to USD 293 billion and USD 266.5 billion, respectively, up around 34% and 14% year on year.
October nevertheless brought some narrowing of the monthly surplus to USD 105.3 billion, below expectations, as imports surged partly driven by stronger purchases of crude oil, in dollar terms the strongest since 2022, and refined petroleum products, with both recording their biggest increase since March.
October highlights:
Crude: 9.9 mb/d, +9.4% m/m, -13.3% y/y
Refined Products: 3.15m tonnes, +70% m/m, -10% y/y
Copper: 2.17m tonnes, -13% m/m, -11.6% y/y
Soybeans: 7.35m tonnes, -38% m/m, -22.5% y/y
chris kelly retweeted
UKRAINE'S GRAIN TRADE: THE FARMER PAYS, THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY PROFITS!
The economics of exporting Ukrainian grain through the Danube's Sulina Canal have become increasingly outrageous.
Look at the numbers:
🚢 FREIGHT COSTS
• Sunflower: More than $180-90/tonne
• Wheat: Around $115-20/tonne
These are exceptionally high transportation costs, reflecting restricted export routes, limited vessel availability, navigational risks and the additional costs of operating in a war zone.
THE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS CASHING IN
A small 3,000-tonne coaster can reportedly generate approximately $12,000 per day.
That translates into roughly $4 per tonne per day in vessel earnings/revenue, depending on the operating arrangement.
WAR-RISK INSURANCE ADDS ANOTHER LAYER
• War-risk insurance premium: 3.5%.
• If the vessel completes its voyage without damage, 50% of the premium is reportedly refunded.
This reflects the extraordinary risk premium attached to shipping in the Black Sea and Danube region.
BUT LOOK AT THE FARMER!
Ukrainian farmers are reportedly losing $30 per tonne, while selling corn at approximately $95-100/tonne.
Think about the economics:
A farmer selling corn at $100/t is already operating under severe financial pressure. High transportation costs, expensive inputs, storage expenses and disrupted export logistics leave very little room for profitability.
THE BIGGER MARKET CONSEQUENCE
1. Export competitiveness deteriorates: Expensive logistics make Ukrainian grain less competitive against supplies from countries with cheaper transportation routes.
2. Farmgate prices come under pressure: When export logistics become prohibitively expensive, exporters have less room to bid aggressively for grain from farmers.
3. Farmers lose pricing power: Even when international grain prices remain firm, high freight costs prevent those gains from reaching the producer.
4. Production incentives weaken: Sustained losses can discourage farmers from investing in fertilisers, crop protection and higher-yielding technology, potentially affecting future production.
5. Export routes become a strategic bottleneck: Ukraine's ability to produce grain is not the only issue. Its ability to move that grain economically is equally important.
MY MARKET VERDICT:
This is a deeply distorted agricultural supply chain.
The farmer carries production risk, weather risk, input-cost risk and price risk. Yet, by the time the grain reaches the export market, an enormous portion of its value has been consumed by logistics and war-related costs.
Ukraine may have grain to sell, but profitable exports are becoming a different question altogether.
The most alarming part: the farmer is increasingly becoming the weakest link in a supply chain where everybody else charges a premium.
#Ukraine #Corn #Wheat #Sunflower #GrainTrade #AgTwitter
chris kelly retweeted
Russia is trying to replace lost Black Sea #grain exports with Baltic shipments.
Lithuania has another idea.
From next week, Russian and Belarusian #grain moving through Klaipeda must wait for origin tests. Which could take 2+ months - Reuters.
No lab in Lithuania, so samples go abroad. Exporters pay for storage.
Not a ban. But good luck exporting #wheat like that.
#wheat #Russia #oatt
BHP needs to copy Rio. They should exit Potash. Sell Jansen in Saskatchewan. afr.com//street-talk/meet-th…
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chris kelly retweeted
The chance of successive government's not adjusting the tax brackets prior to 2038 is approximately 0. It's the favourite thing of a treasurer to do. xitter.gq/E61Institute/status/21…
Bracket creep will lift the average worker’s tax rate from 20.5% to 24.1% by 2038, and the increases are uneven across incomes. New e61 research looks at who bears the cost.🧵
ALT Line chart of effective tax rates (excluding the Medicare levy) by gross taxable income, in FY26 dollars, from $0 to $200k. Rates in FY38 are higher than in FY28 at every income level above about $18k. A worker on $100k faces a 20.5% rate in FY28. With inflation alone, that same worker would face 22.6% in FY38. A worker whose income grows with the overall economy by FT38 would face a tax rate of 24.1%.
chris kelly retweeted
Reasons not to hike rates at all, let alone 50bps:
1. Oil just crashed 20%
2. CPI is backward-looking
3. Inflation is at the average of the last 40 years
4. Stocks crashed last week
5. It's one print. An ugly print, but one print, and the Fed shouldn't be making decisions based on one data point
6. Inflation was a lot higher in 2021 and there was no urgency then, why, I wonder, does everyone have religion about this all of a sudden?
7. You never hike into a supply shock
8. Everyone knows this is about politics
9. Everyone knows Warsh is strongly disliked
10. And Warsh is a proxy for Trump
11. Copper just broke the uptrend
12. A 50bp move is for emergencies. Nothing here constitutes an emergency.
13. See my previous tweet
chris kelly retweeted
Semis are no longer cyclical stocks. When robotics come into the mix the demand will be permanent. This is where bears make a mistake imho
chris kelly retweeted
This is an amazing chart. The bulls point out the sector is now super cheap,on a forward PE basis. The bears might point out that price action ALWAYS leads profits up, or down. Maybe as i've suggested, liquidity is key.
H/T @yardeni via @dailychartbook
chris kelly retweeted
There are many companies like #Qantas in Australia & worldwide who contract work to tech giants in #India. More will follow especially from high wage nations. #AI adds to it as it decimates our work force & enables fraud. It is a scourge on humanity.
abc.net.au/news/2026-11-10/8…
Coal power offers “no chance to compete,” says Rio Tinto, as smelters go all-in on renewables reneweconomy.com.au/?p=26174… via @renew_economy
