@LBuresch

Love my family and friends. I am an entrepreneur - Mortgage Banking; HMDA. Born and raised in Bulgaria. Working, living in the US. Painting as a pastime.

 Washington, DC
mortgagedata.ai/
Joined February 2013
  • Tweets93
  • Following224
  • Followers53
9Media
AI can make any chart look professional, and we can’t help but assume it’s insightful. I start with the source, the time period, and the base in units and volume. Then I compare. Loan-level data helps. mortgagedata.ai
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Mortgage rates didn't wait for the Fed. They've climbed since March while the Fed sat still, and agency rate-and-term refis fell by more than half by May. This week's hike hits HELOCs and cards first. The refi demand left is homeowners who need cash. bit.ly/4rtc9yP
Bar and line chart titled "The refinance window closed before the Fed moved," shows agency refinance loans from January to July, with projections to 2026. Loans are on the left axis and average note rate on the right. A "Cash-out" line in yellow, marked with data points, starts at about 6.4% and ends around 6.7%. A "Rate-and-term" line in blue starts at 5.5% and ends slightly lower. Data from Polygon Research.

ALT Bar and line chart titled "The refinance window closed before the Fed moved," shows agency refinance loans from January to July, with projections to 2026. Loans are on the left axis and average note rate on the right. A "Cash-out" line in yellow, marked with data points, starts at about 6.4% and ends around 6.7%. A "Rate-and-term" line in blue starts at 5.5% and ends slightly lower. Data from Polygon Research.

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The @uscensusbureau sent me a thank-you letter for filling out their Business Trends and Outlook Survey, and it made my entire day. The AI results are out. DC, technically not a state, leads the country at 33.7% of businesses reporting current AI use. National is about 18%. I would like to think we helped. The standard error disagrees. Worth a look at your own state. Higher or lower than you expected?
Map of the United States showing current AI use by state. States are shaded in different shades of blue to indicate AI usage estimates, ranging from 0% to 28%. Notable higher estimates include Texas, California, and Florida. Data sourced from BTOS.

ALT Map of the United States showing current AI use by state. States are shaded in different shades of blue to indicate AI usage estimates, ranging from 0% to 28%. Notable higher estimates include Texas, California, and Florida. Data sourced from BTOS.

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High-cost mortgages are a tiny part of the market. Yet our consistently filtered HMDA series shows 9,756 HOEPA originations in 2025, nearly 128% above 2024. The filters matter. In HMDAVision, they are visible and instantly adjustable. bit.ly/3USHvCC
Chart showing HOEPA loan originations from 2018 to 2025. The line graph indicates the count, while bars represent the loan volume in billions of dollars. Key data points include peaks in 2023 and 2025, with a notable loan count and volume increase. Source: Polygon Research.

ALT Chart showing HOEPA loan originations from 2018 to 2025. The line graph indicates the count, while bars represent the loan volume in billions of dollars. Key data points include peaks in 2023 and 2025, with a notable loan count and volume increase. Source: Polygon Research.

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I keep hearing this - You don’t need mortgage market intelligence tools anymore. Just ask Claude or ChatGPT. Especially when the underlying data, like HMDA, is public. So I decided to test it. One mortgage data question. Three tools. Three very different outcomes. The longer version is on YouTube: bit.ly/4xKt2Hl
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREAug 7
Median property values for manufactured home purchase mortgages secured by real estate: $150,000 in Illinois to $415,000 in Washington, 2025. Only 37.3% of buyers finance with a mortgage. The rest pay cash. 81,138 originations. HMDA via HMDAVision. bit.ly/4xj0p3I
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREAug 13
The average agency purchase loan rose from $233,409 in 2018 to $360,320 YTD 2026. But 70% of that increase had already happened by 2022. The loan-size tailwind behind purchase dollar volume has weakened. Explore the refreshed Polygon Pulse: polygonresearch.com/polygon-…
Chart - increase in average purchase loan amounts from 2018 to 2026, $233,409 in 2018 and $360,320 in 2026 YTD. The line graph displays consistent growth with notable points in 2021 at $322,071. Source: Polygon Research - Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot).

ALT Chart - increase in average purchase loan amounts from 2018 to 2026, $233,409 in 2018 and $360,320 in 2026 YTD. The line graph displays consistent growth with notable points in 2021 at $322,071. Source: Polygon Research - Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot).

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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREAug 10
How big is the multigenerational housing market? 5.1M households under the Census definition of 3+ generations. 6.4M adding skipped-generation households. 26.7M adding all shared adult generations, about 1 in 5 US homes. Same data. Different question.bit.ly/4hs5AcT
The image is an infographic titled "How big is the multigenerational market?" It presents three sets of data: "Strict" with 5.1M households for 3 or more generations, The footer states data sources: Polygon Research and CensusVision (ACS 1-Year PUMS, 2024)

ALT The image is an infographic titled "How big is the multigenerational market?" It presents three sets of data: "Strict" with 5.1M households for 3 or more generations, The footer states data sources: Polygon Research and CensusVision (ACS 1-Year PUMS, 2024)

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Manufactured housing was the only property type conventional first-time buyers bought more of in 2025 than in 2018. Up 31% in a segment that fell 14%. MBS Pivot.
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Investment-property share of Non-QM purchase lending, 50 largest metros, Range: 4% to 54%. Conventional, 1–4 unit, first lien, closed-end, Non-QM, purchase. 2025 HMDA. HMDAVision.
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Where is mortgage opportunity forming—and who is capturing it? Polygon Pulse connects community data to actual Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie originations, plus the lenders and brokers behind the volume. July update: bit.ly/454uMPb
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FHA ARM refi activity is hard to ignore. FHA endorsed 3,461 in May—more than all of 2017. From Jan–May, ARMs were 7.2% of FHA refis, up from 0.2% a year ago. The top 10 lenders accounted for 94% of volume in both borrower paths. polygonresearch.com/data
Graph depicting FHA ARM refinancing data: From 2016 to 2026, a sharp rise is observed. In May 2026, loan endorsements reach 3,461, surpassing the total 2,714 loans of 2017. Data source is Polygon Research - Polygon Pulse (FHA Pivot).

ALT Graph depicting FHA ARM refinancing data: From 2016 to 2026, a sharp rise is observed. In May 2026, loan endorsements reach 3,461, surpassing the total 2,714 loans of 2017. Data source is Polygon Research - Polygon Pulse (FHA Pivot).

Chart showing top 10 lenders by loan count for FHA ARM refinancing from a conventional loan, year-to-date 2026. The list includes Rocket Mortgage, United Wholesale Mortgage, Freedom Mortgage, New American Funding, PennyMac, Mutual of Omaha, loanDepot, Guaranteed Rate, Sago Home Loans, and NewRez. Loan counts and average loan amounts are displayed for each lender. Rocket Mortgage leads with 1,266 loans and an average loan amount of $323,192.

ALT Chart showing top 10 lenders by loan count for FHA ARM refinancing from a conventional loan, year-to-date 2026. The list includes Rocket Mortgage, United Wholesale Mortgage, Freedom Mortgage, New American Funding, PennyMac, Mutual of Omaha, loanDepot, Guaranteed Rate, Sago Home Loans, and NewRez. Loan counts and average loan amounts are displayed for each lender. Rocket Mortgage leads with 1,266 loans and an average loan amount of $323,192.

Chart detailing FHA ARM Streamline Refinances from the top 10 lenders, based on loan count for the year to date 2026. United Wholesale Mortgage leads with 1,902 loans averaging $338,038. Following are Freedom Mortgage with 1,399 loans averaging $209,864, Rocket Mortgage with 1,221 loans averaging $309,306, and PennyMac with 432 loans averaging $348,856. New American Funding, Sun West Mortgage, and loanDepot follow, each with varying counts and averages. The list concludes with Mutual of Omaha, Guaranteed Rate, and NewRez.

ALT Chart detailing FHA ARM Streamline Refinances from the top 10 lenders, based on loan count for the year to date 2026. United Wholesale Mortgage leads with 1,902 loans averaging $338,038. Following are Freedom Mortgage with 1,399 loans averaging $209,864, Rocket Mortgage with 1,221 loans averaging $309,306, and PennyMac with 432 loans averaging $348,856. New American Funding, Sun West Mortgage, and loanDepot follow, each with varying counts and averages. The list concludes with Mutual of Omaha, Guaranteed Rate, and NewRez.

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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJul 4
250 years. A country built and carried forward by ordinary people, families, neighborhoods, and communities. Happy Fourth of July from Polygon Research.
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Greg Oliven
@GregOlivenJul 2
Nice to see @PolygonRE and @LBuresch cited like this: Nonbanks drive agency ARM increase as borrower leverage grows housingwire.com/articles/non…

Nonbanks take over issuance as agency ARMs climb in 2026

Polygon Research shows agency ARMs at 3.34% YTD 2026 vs 0.31% in 2021, as the top 10 sellers shift to nonbanks.

housingwire.com
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJun 15
More FHA ARMs in the first 4 months of 2026 (11,588) than in all of 2022 (1,286). ARM share: 0.2% → 4.0%.
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJun 12
Today, a different question. Conventional purchase loans only — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — share above 95% LTV: Nebraska 18%, Missouri 16%, Indiana 16%. LTV is one dimension — credit score, DTI, and pricing sit behind it in MBS Pivot.
Homebuyers using conventional loans with less than 5% down by state, mapped by Polygon Research. Showing concentration in Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas.

ALT Homebuyers using conventional loans with less than 5% down by state, mapped by Polygon Research. Showing concentration in Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas.

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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJun 11
Mortgage intelligence in three dimensions. Competition → MBS Pivot Channel → FHA Pivot Opportunity → CPS Pivot One subscription. Monthly updates. No contracts. Free trial: polygonresearch.com/pricing
Polygon Pulse graphic: Competition, Channel, Opportunity — three forces drive mortgage outcomes, one subscription tracks all three. MBS Pivot: agency originations, lender positioning, LLPA heatmaps. FHA Pivot: broker–wholesale relationships by zip code. CPS Pivot: 136M+ households, labor, tenure, first-time buyer sizing. Free trial, monthly updates, no contracts. polygonresearch.com/pricing

ALT Polygon Pulse graphic: Competition, Channel, Opportunity — three forces drive mortgage outcomes, one subscription tracks all three. MBS Pivot: agency originations, lender positioning, LLPA heatmaps. FHA Pivot: broker–wholesale relationships by zip code. CPS Pivot: 136M+ households, labor, tenure, first-time buyer sizing. Free trial, monthly updates, no contracts. polygonresearch.com/pricing

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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREMay 28
Housing finance data is scattered across the value chain. We connect it. 120 seconds on how.
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJun 2
Buyers get the attention. Owners hold the housing stock. Polygon Vision brings that homeownership story down to local markets. polygonresearch.com/polygon-…
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Lyubomira Buresch retweeted
Polygon Research
@PolygonREJun 8
Nearly 700,000 funded loans. About $239B in origination volume. That is what Polygon Research identified using our loan-level Non-QM classification algorithm on 2025 HMDA data. But Non-QM is not one market. The opportunity looks different by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint. Full analysis: polygonresearch.com/blog/how… #NationalHomeownershipMonth #NonQM #MortgageData
Non-QM mortgage market graphic showing local opportunity by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint.

ALT Non-QM mortgage market graphic showing local opportunity by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint.

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