Polygon Research CTO

Washington, DC
Joined December 2009
The 2024 HMDA data was just released by the CFPB March 31, 2025. See the top lenders, their national market share, and whether their production was up or down year over year.
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Cursor Projects - this is what I have been needing all year. Day 1, off to a great start.
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This is great.
My LLM cliché highlighter is up to 38 patterns now tools.simonwillison.net/llm-…
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We've added to the website a free PDF of the Bayesian Workflow book (for non-commercial purposes, like research and exorcism). We put so much work into this book, hope you all find value in it. avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-…
The Bayesian Workflow book is out in print now, just in time to distract you from *gestures all around*. Some links below to code and other resources:
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Greg Oliven retweeted
Yesterday's solar eclipse didn't just block the sun — it put a dent in Internet traffic. In Iceland, Spain, and Portugal, HTTP requests dropped up to 30% right at peak totality. Not a network issue. Just millions of people stepping outside to look up. cfl.re/4gwgQE8
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Greg Oliven retweeted
Investment-property share of Non-QM purchase lending, 50 largest metros, Range: 4% to 54%. Conventional, 1–4 unit, first lien, closed-end, Non-QM, purchase. 2025 HMDA. HMDAVision.
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A great Rolling Stones album...full stop...in 2026! open.spotify.com/album/6jfU2…
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Caleb Stephen Oliven: love, peace, and joy this birthday and every day - happy birthday, son! Here's a birthday podcast for something different - I think you'll enjoy it: open.spotify.com/episode/02J…
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Daniel Joseph Oliven: happy birthday son! I chose this year's birthday song for its effortless cool, but also for its cautionary tale. Water? All my love. open.spotify.com/track/25ceF…
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Mortgage lenders often frame their MLO strategy as a build vs. buy choice: Build producers from within, or recruit proven producers from somewhere else. There is a third way: do both, with better data.
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@PolygonRE has long helped lenders build capacity through mortgage market intelligence: understanding where opportunity exists, which products matter, how competitors are winning, and how to give MLOs a stronger platform for success. We have now added county recorder data, giving us a clearer view of the purchase relationships and production that individual MLOs bring to the table. polygonresearch.com/
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Greg Oliven retweeted
Threading the needle in this post of anthropic has done some bad things for AI governance & the discourse but the actions of this administration are way worse so we need to get a handle on it before stronger models, open or closed, come along soon. interconnects.ai/p/welcome-t…
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Greg Oliven retweeted
Mortgage intelligence in three dimensions. Competition → MBS Pivot Channel → FHA Pivot Opportunity → CPS Pivot One subscription. Monthly updates. No contracts. Free trial: polygonresearch.com/pricing
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Greg Oliven retweeted
We benchmarked agentic SQL generation on 460 hard analytical questions. 🦆 Raw schema: 29.8% accuracy 🦆 Pre-computed views: 86.6% 🦆 Simple prompt + macros: 93.2% (ranked #1 on DABstep, ahead of NVIDIA + Google Cloud) The winning factor wasn't the model. It was data prep. Full research → motherduck.com/lp/guide-to-b…
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Greg Oliven retweeted
2025 HMDA Data Now Live in HMDAVision: 6.8M Loans, 4,770 Lenders einpresswire.com/article/903… via @ein_news
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When is a data release from last year a big deal? When it's a baseline data set that defines something at a granular level. The American Community Survey data is like this - it baselines every person and household in the US. HMDA is another example. It baselines every mortgage loan in the US (save for those from very small lenders below the Reg C threshold). When we're talking about "every" and "baseline", we're talking about a data set that gives you something you can't get anywhere else. So this week a tip of the hat to the HMDA Operations team at the CFPB for publishing a gem of a data set on time: the 2025 HMDA data: every loan (application outcomes + purchased loans) from 4,770 lenders, with detailed loan, property, applicant, geography, channel, and pricing attributes. Lenders use it to see - in every market - how successful their strategy was and where they got outmaneuvered - essential input back into the top of the strategy funnel. My company puts this data in a cloud engine that puts every single one of these 138 million loan records from the last 8 years - including 2025 as of today - at your fingertips. See the new baseline leaderboards on our website - link in replies.
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